Humans interact with the world based on their inner motivations (goals) by performing actions. Those actions might be observable by financial institutions. In turn, financial institutions might log all these observed actions for better understanding human behavior. Examples of such interactions are investment operations (buying or selling options), account-related activities (creating accounts, making transactions, withdrawing money), digital interactions (utilizing the bank's web or mobile app for configuring alerts, or applying for a new credit card), or even illicit operations (such as fraud or money laundering). Once human behavior can be better understood, financial institutions can improve their processes allowing them to deepen the relationship with clients, offering targeted services (marketing), handling complaints-related interactions (operations), or performing fraud or money laundering investigations (compliance) [Borrajo et al., 2020].

Sequential decision making techniques hold great promise to improve the performance of many real-world systems, but computational complexity hampers their principled application. Influence-based abstraction aims to gain leverage by modeling local subproblems together with the 'influence' that the rest of the system exerts on them. While computing exact representations of such influence might be intractable, learning approximate representations offers a promising approach to enable scalable solutions. This paper investigates the performance of such approaches from a theoretical perspective. The primary contribution is the derivation of sufficient conditions on approximate influence representations that can guarantee solutions with small value loss. In particular we show that neural networks trained with cross entropy are well suited to learn approximate influence representations. Moreover, we provide a sample based formulation of the bounds, which reduces the gap to applications. Finally, driven by our theoretical insights, we propose approximation error estimators, which empirically reveal to correlate well with the value loss.

Agents trained via deep reinforcement learning (RL) routinely fail to generalize to unseen environments, even when these share the same underlying dynamics as the training levels. Understanding the generalization properties of RL is one of the challenges of modern machine learning. Towards this goal, we analyze policy learning in the context of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) and formalize the dynamics of training levels as instances. We prove that, independently of the exploration strategy, reusing instances introduces significant changes on the effective Markov dynamics the agent observes during training. Maximizing expected rewards impacts the learned belief state of the agent by inducing undesired instance-specific speed-running policies instead of generalizable ones, which are sub-optimal on the training set. We provide generalization bounds to the value gap in train and test environments based on the number of training instances, and use insights based on these to improve performance on unseen levels. We propose training a shared belief representation over an ensemble of specialized policies, from which we compute a consensus policy that is used for data collection, disallowing instance-specific exploitation. We experimentally validate our theory, observations, and the proposed computational solution over the CoinRun benchmark.

This paper is a tutorial and literature review on sampling algorithms. We have two main types of sampling in statistics. The first type is survey sampling which draws samples from a set or population. The second type is sampling from probability distribution where we have a probability density or mass function. In this paper, we cover both types of sampling. First, we review some required background on mean squared error, variance, bias, maximum likelihood estimation, Bernoulli, Binomial, and Hypergeometric distributions, the Horvitz-Thompson estimator, and the Markov property. Then, we explain the theory of simple random sampling, bootstrapping, stratified sampling, and cluster sampling. We also briefly introduce multistage sampling, network sampling, and snowball sampling. Afterwards, we switch to sampling from distribution. We explain sampling from cumulative distribution function, Monte Carlo approximation, simple Monte Carlo methods, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. For simple Monte Carlo methods, whose iterations are independent, we cover importance sampling and rejection sampling. For MCMC methods, we cover Metropolis algorithm, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Gibbs sampling, and slice sampling. Then, we explain the random walk behaviour of Monte Carlo methods and more efficient Monte Carlo methods, including Hamiltonian (or hybrid) Monte Carlo, Adler's overrelaxation, and ordered overrelaxation. Finally, we summarize the characteristics, pros, and cons of sampling methods compared to each other. This paper can be useful for different fields of statistics, machine learning, reinforcement learning, and computational physics.

This work studies the problem of learning episodic Markov Decision Processes with known transition and bandit feedback. We develop the first algorithm with a ``best-of-both-worlds'' guarantee: it achieves $\mathcal{O}(log T)$ regret when the losses are stochastic, and simultaneously enjoys worst-case robustness with $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret even when the losses are adversarial, where $T$ is the number of episodes. More generally, it achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{C})$ regret in an intermediate setting where the losses are corrupted by a total amount of $C$. Our algorithm is based on the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader method from Zimin and Neu (2013), with a novel hybrid regularizer inspired by recent works of Zimmert et al. (2019a, 2019b) for the special case of multi-armed bandits. Crucially, our regularizer admits a non-diagonal Hessian with a highly complicated inverse. Analyzing such a regularizer and deriving a particular self-bounding regret guarantee is our key technical contribution and might be of independent interest.

Modeling the temporal behavior of data is of primordial importance in many scientific and engineering fields. Baseline methods assume that both the dynamic and observation equations follow linear-Gaussian models. However, there are many real-world processes that cannot be characterized by a single linear behavior. Alternatively, it is possible to consider a piecewise-linear model which, combined with a switching mechanism, is well suited when several modes of behavior are needed. Nevertheless, switching dynamical systems are intractable because of their computational complexity increases exponentially with time. In this paper, we propose a variational approximation of piecewise linear dynamical systems. We provide full details of the derivation of two variational expectation-maximization algorithms, a filter and a smoother. We show that the model parameters can be split into two sets, static and dynamic parameters, and that the former parameters can be estimated off-line together with the number of linear modes, or the number of states of the switching variable. We apply the proposed method to a visual tracking problem, namely head-pose tracking, and we thoroughly compare our algorithm with several state of the art trackers.

Selective labels are a common feature of consequential decision-making applications, referring to the lack of observed outcomes under one of the possible decisions. This paper reports work in progress on learning decision policies in the face of selective labels. The setting considered is both a simplified homogeneous one, disregarding individuals' features to facilitate determination of optimal policies, and an online one, to balance costs incurred in learning with future utility. For maximizing discounted total reward, the optimal policy is shown to be a threshold policy, and the problem is one of optimal stopping. In contrast, for undiscounted infinite-horizon average reward, optimal policies have positive acceptance probability in all states. Future work stemming from these results is discussed.

Solving real-life sequential decision making problems under partial observability involves an exploration-exploitation problem. To be successful, an agent needs to efficiently gather valuable information about the state of the world for making rewarding decisions. However, in real-life, acquiring valuable information is often highly costly, e.g., in the medical domain, information acquisition might correspond to performing a medical test on a patient. This poses a significant challenge for the agent to perform optimally for the task while reducing the cost for information acquisition. In this paper, we propose a model-based reinforcement learning framework that learns an active feature acquisition policy to solve the exploration-exploitation problem during its execution. Key to the success is a novel sequential variational auto-encoder that learns high-quality representations from partially observed states, which are then used by the policy to maximize the task reward in a cost efficient manner. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed framework in a control domain as well as using a medical simulator. In both tasks, our proposed method outperforms conventional baselines and results in policies with greater cost efficiency.

Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) enable researchers to solve challenging control problems, from simulated environments to real-world robotic tasks. However, deep RL algorithms are known to be sensitive to the problem formulation, including observation spaces, action spaces, and reward functions. There exist numerous choices for observation spaces but they are often designed solely based on prior knowledge due to the lack of established principles. In this work, we conduct benchmark experiments to verify common design choices for observation spaces, such as Cartesian transformation, binary contact flags, a short history, or global positions. Then we propose a search algorithm to find the optimal observation spaces, which examines various candidate observation spaces and removes unnecessary observation channels with a Dropout-Permutation test. We demonstrate that our algorithm significantly improves learning speed compared to manually designed observation spaces. We also analyze the proposed algorithm by evaluating different hyperparameters.

We're living in an era of digital switch-over with only one constant – evolve. And that digital transformation is being introduced by high-tech solutions. Hence, it comes as no surprise that mundane business tasks are being completely taken over by tech advancements. Machines, artificial intelligence (AI), and unsupervised learning are reshaping the way businesses vie for a place under the sun. With that being said, let's have a closer look at how unsupervised machine learning is omnipresent in all industries.