We study planning problems for continuous control systems with uncertainty caused by measurement and process noise. The goal is to find an optimal plan that guarantees that the system reaches a desired goal state within finite time. Measurement noise causes limited observability of system states, and process noise causes uncertainty in the outcome of a given plan. These factors render the problem undecidable in general. Our key contribution is a novel abstraction scheme that employs Kalman filtering as a state estimator to obtain a finite-state model, which we formalize as a Markov decision process (MDP). For this MDP, we employ state-of-the-art model checking techniques to efficiently compute plans that maximize the probability of reaching goal states. Moreover, we account for numerical imprecision in computing the abstraction by extending the MDP with intervals of probabilities as a more robust model. We show the correctness of the abstraction and provide several optimizations that aim to balance the quality of the plan and the scalability of the approach. We demonstrate that our method can handle systems that result in MDPs with thousands of states and millions of transitions.

Real-world decision-making tasks are generally complex, requiring trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Despite this, the majority of research in reinforcement learning and decision-theoretic planning either assumes only a single objective, or that multiple objectives can be adequately handled via a simple linear combination. Such approaches may oversimplify the underlying problem and hence produce suboptimal results. This paper serves as a guide to the application of multi-objective methods to difficult problems, and is aimed at researchers who are already familiar with single-objective reinforcement learning and planning methods who wish to adopt a multi-objective perspective on their research, as well as practitioners who encounter multi-objective decision problems in practice. It identifies the factors that may influence the nature of the desired solution, and illustrates by example how these influence the design of multi-objective decision-making systems for complex problems.

Machine learning requires many sophisticated algorithms to learn from existing data, then apply the learnings to new data. Dynamic programming turns up in many of these algorithms. This may be because dynamic programming excels at solving problems involving "non-local" information, making greedy or divide-and-conquer algorithms ineffective. In this article, I'll explore one technique used in machine learning, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), and how dynamic programming is used when applying this technique. After discussing HMMs, I'll show a few real-world examples where HMMs are used.

Simulation environments are good for learning different driving tasks like lane changing, parking or handling intersections etc. in an abstract manner. However, these simulation environments often restrict themselves to operate under conservative interactions behavior amongst different vehicles. But, as we know that the real driving tasks often involves very high risk scenarios where other drivers often don't behave in the expected sense. There can be many reasons for this behavior like being tired or inexperienced. The simulation environments doesn't take this information into account while training the navigation agent. Therefore, in this study we especially focus on systematically creating these risk prone scenarios with heavy traffic and unexpected random behavior for creating better model-free learning agents. We generate multiple autonomous driving scenarios by creating new custom Markov Decision Process (MDP) environment iterations in highway-env simulation package. The behavior policy is learnt by agents trained with the help from deep reinforcement learning models. Our behavior policy is deliberated to handle collisions and risky randomized driver behavior. We train model free learning agents with supplement information of risk prone driving scenarios and compare their performance with baseline agents. Finally, we casually measure the impact of adding these perturbations in the training process to precisely account for the performance improvement attained from utilizing the learnings from these scenarios.

For hidden Markov models one of the most popular estimates of the hidden chain is the Viterbi path -- the path maximising the posterior probability. We consider a more general setting, called the pairwise Markov model (PMM), where the joint process consisting of finite-state hidden process and observation process is assumed to be a Markov chain. It has been recently proven that under some conditions the Viterbi path of the PMM can almost surely be extended to infinity, thereby defining the infinite Viterbi decoding of the observation sequence, called the Viterbi process. This was done by constructing a block of observations, called a barrier, which ensures that the Viterbi path goes trough a given state whenever this block occurs in the observation sequence. In this paper we prove that the joint process consisting of Viterbi process and PMM is regenerative. The proof involves a delicate construction of regeneration times which coincide with the occurrences of barriers. As one possible application of our theory, some results on the asymptotics of the Viterbi training algorithm are derived.

Infants acquire words and phonemes from unsegmented speech signals using segmentation cues, such as distributional, prosodic, and co-occurrence cues. Many pre-existing computational models that represent the process tend to focus on distributional or prosodic cues. This paper proposes a nonparametric Bayesian probabilistic generative model called the prosodic hierarchical Dirichlet process-hidden language model (Prosodic HDP-HLM). Prosodic HDP-HLM, an extension of HDP-HLM, considers both prosodic and distributional cues within a single integrative generative model. We conducted three experiments on different types of datasets, and demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. The results show that the Prosodic DAA successfully uses prosodic cues and outperforms a method that solely uses distributional cues. The main contributions of this study are as follows: 1) We develop a probabilistic generative model for time series data including prosody that potentially has a double articulation structure; 2) We propose the Prosodic DAA by deriving the inference procedure for Prosodic HDP-HLM and show that Prosodic DAA can discover words directly from continuous human speech signals using statistical information and prosodic information in an unsupervised manner; 3) We show that prosodic cues contribute to word segmentation more in naturally distributed case words, i.e., they follow Zipf's law.

Building a humanlike integrative artificial cognitive system, that is, an artificial general intelligence, is one of the goals in artificial intelligence and developmental robotics. Furthermore, a computational model that enables an artificial cognitive system to achieve cognitive development will be an excellent reference for brain and cognitive science. This paper describes the development of a cognitive architecture using probabilistic generative models (PGMs) to fully mirror the human cognitive system. The integrative model is called a whole-brain PGM (WB-PGM). It is both brain-inspired and PGMbased. In this paper, the process of building the WB-PGM and learning from the human brain to build cognitive architectures is described.

Bug reports (BR) contain vital information that can help triaging teams prioritize and assign bugs to developers who will provide the fixes. However, studies have shown that BR fields often contain incorrect information that need to be reassigned, which delays the bug fixing process. There exist approaches for predicting whether a BR field should be reassigned or not. These studies use mainly BR descriptions and traditional machine learning algorithms (SVM, KNN, etc.). As such, they do not fully benefit from the sequential order of information in BR data, such as function call sequences in BR stack traces, which may be valuable for improving the prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel approach, called EnHMM, for predicting the reassignment of BR fields using ensemble Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), trained on stack traces. EnHMM leverages the natural ability of HMMs to represent sequential data to model the temporal order of function calls in BR stack traces. When applied to Eclipse and Gnome BR repositories, EnHMM achieves an average precision, recall, and F-measure of 54%, 76%, and 60% on Eclipse dataset and 41%, 69%, and 51% on Gnome dataset. We also found that EnHMM improves over the best single HMM by 36% for Eclipse and 76% for Gnome. Finally, when comparing EnHMM to Im.ML.KNN, a recent approach in the field, we found that the average F-measure score of EnHMM improves the average F-measure of Im.ML.KNN by 6.80% and improves the average recall of Im.ML.KNN by 36.09%. However, the average precision of EnHMM is lower than that of Im.ML.KNN (53.93% as opposed to 56.71%).

Effective communication is an important skill for enabling information exchange in multi-agent settings and emergent communication is now a vibrant field of research, with common settings involving discrete cheap-talk channels. Since, by definition, these settings involve arbitrary encoding of information, typically they do not allow for the learned protocols to generalize beyond training partners. In contrast, in this work, we present a novel problem setting and the Quasi-Equivalence Discovery (QED) algorithm that allows for zero-shot coordination (ZSC), i.e., discovering protocols that can generalize to independently trained agents. Real world problem settings often contain costly communication channels, e.g., robots have to physically move their limbs, and a non-uniform distribution over intents. We show that these two factors lead to unique optimal ZSC policies in referential games, where agents use the energy cost of the messages to communicate intent. Other-Play was recently introduced for learning optimal ZSC policies, but requires prior access to the symmetries of the problem. Instead, QED can iteratively discovers the symmetries in this setting and converges to the optimal ZSC policy.

The development of recommender systems that optimize multi-turn interaction with users, and model the interactions of different agents (e.g., users, content providers, vendors) in the recommender ecosystem have drawn increasing attention in recent years. Developing and training models and algorithms for such recommenders can be especially difficult using static datasets, which often fail to offer the types of counterfactual predictions needed to evaluate policies over extended horizons. To address this, we develop RecSim NG, a probabilistic platform for the simulation of multi-agent recommender systems. RecSim NG is a scalable, modular, differentiable simulator implemented in Edward2 and TensorFlow. It offers: a powerful, general probabilistic programming language for agent-behavior specification; tools for probabilistic inference and latent-variable model learning, backed by automatic differentiation and tracing; and a TensorFlow-based runtime for running simulations on accelerated hardware. We describe RecSim NG and illustrate how it can be used to create transparent, configurable, end-to-end models of a recommender ecosystem, complemented by a small set of simple use cases that demonstrate how RecSim NG can help both researchers and practitioners easily develop and train novel algorithms for recommender systems.