Markov Models
Probabilistic Planning with Preferences over Temporal Goals
We present a formal language for specifying qualitative preferences over temporal goals and a preference-based planning method in stochastic systems. Using automata-theoretic modeling, the proposed specification allows us to express preferences over different sets of outcomes, where each outcome describes a set of temporal sequences of subgoals. We define the value of preference satisfaction given a stochastic process over possible outcomes and develop an algorithm for time-constrained probabilistic planning in labeled Markov decision processes where an agent aims to maximally satisfy its preference formula within a pre-defined finite time duration. We present experimental results using a stochastic gridworld example and discuss possible extensions of the proposed preference model.
An Embedding-based Joint Sentiment-Topic Model for Short Texts
Sengupta, Ayan, Paka, William Scott, Roy, Suman, Ranjan, Gaurav, Chakraborty, Tanmoy
Short text is a popular avenue of sharing feedback, opinions and reviews on social media, e-commerce platforms, etc. Many companies need to extract meaningful information (which may include thematic content as well as semantic polarity) out of such short texts to understand users' behaviour. However, obtaining high quality sentiment-associated and human interpretable themes still remains a challenge for short texts. In this paper we develop ELJST, an embedding enhanced generative joint sentiment-topic model that can discover more coherent and diverse topics from short texts. It uses Markov Random Field Regularizer that can be seen as a generalisation of skip-gram based models. Further, it can leverage higher-order semantic information appearing in word embedding, such as self-attention weights in graphical models. Our results show an average improvement of 10% in topic coherence and 5% in topic diversification over baselines. Finally, ELJST helps understand users' behaviour at more granular levels which can be explained. All these can bring significant values to the service and healthcare industries often dealing with customers.
Real World Applications of Markov Decision Process (MDP)
We need to decide what proportion of salmons to catch in a year in a specific area maximizing the longer term return. Each salmon generates a fixed amount of dollar. But if a large proportion of salmons are caught then the yield of the next year will be lower. We need to find the optimum portion of salmons to catch to maximize the return over a long time period. Here we consider a simplified version of the above problem; whether to fish a certain portion of salmon or not.
Active multi-fidelity Bayesian online changepoint detection
Gundersen, Gregory W., Cai, Diana, Zhou, Chuteng, Engelhardt, Barbara E., Adams, Ryan P.
Online algorithms for detecting changepoints, or abrupt shifts in the behavior of a time series, are often deployed with limited resources, e.g., to edge computing settings such as mobile phones or industrial sensors. In these scenarios it may be beneficial to trade the cost of collecting an environmental measurement against the quality or "fidelity" of this measurement and how the measurement affects changepoint estimation. For instance, one might decide between inertial measurements or GPS to determine changepoints for motion. A Bayesian approach to changepoint detection is particularly appealing because we can represent our posterior uncertainty about changepoints and make active, cost-sensitive decisions about data fidelity to reduce this posterior uncertainty. Moreover, the total cost could be dramatically lowered through active fidelity switching, while remaining robust to changes in data distribution. We propose a multi-fidelity approach that makes cost-sensitive decisions about which data fidelity to collect based on maximizing information gain with respect to changepoints. We evaluate this framework on synthetic, video, and audio data and show that this information-based approach results in accurate predictions while reducing total cost.
Active Tree Search in Large POMDPs
Maisto, Domenico, Gregoretti, Francesco, Friston, Karl, Pezzulo, Giovanni
Model-based planning and prospection are widely studied in both cognitive neuroscience and artificial intelligence (AI), but from different perspectives - and with different desiderata in mind (biological realism versus scalability) that are difficult to reconcile. Here, we introduce a novel method to plan in large POMDPs - Active Tree Search - that combines the normative character and biological realism of a leading planning theory in neuroscience (Active Inference) and the scalability of Monte-Carlo methods in AI. This unification is beneficial for both approaches. On the one hand, using Monte-Carlo planning permits scaling up the biologically grounded approach of Active Inference to large-scale problems. On the other hand, the theory of Active Inference provides a principled solution to the balance of exploration and exploitation, which is often addressed heuristically in Monte-Carlo methods. Our simulations show that Active Tree Search successfully navigates binary trees that are challenging for sampling-based methods, problems that require adaptive exploration, and the large POMDP problem Rocksample. Furthermore, we illustrate how Active Tree Search can be used to simulate neurophysiological responses (e.g., in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex) of humans and other animals that contain large planning problems. These simulations show that Active Tree Search is a principled realisation of neuroscientific and AI theories of planning, which offers both biological realism and scalability.
Risk Bounds and Rademacher Complexity in Batch Reinforcement Learning
Duan, Yaqi, Jin, Chi, Li, Zhiyuan
This paper considers batch Reinforcement Learning (RL) with general value function approximation. Our study investigates the minimal assumptions to reliably estimate/minimize Bellman error, and characterizes the generalization performance by (local) Rademacher complexities of general function classes, which makes initial steps in bridging the gap between statistical learning theory and batch RL. Concretely, we view the Bellman error as a surrogate loss for the optimality gap, and prove the followings: (1) In double sampling regime, the excess risk of Empirical Risk Minimizer (ERM) is bounded by the Rademacher complexity of the function class. (2) In the single sampling regime, sample-efficient risk minimization is not possible without further assumptions, regardless of algorithms. However, with completeness assumptions, the excess risk of FQI and a minimax style algorithm can be again bounded by the Rademacher complexity of the corresponding function classes. (3) Fast statistical rates can be achieved by using tools of local Rademacher complexity. Our analysis covers a wide range of function classes, including finite classes, linear spaces, kernel spaces, sparse linear features, etc.
Self-Imitation Learning by Planning
Luo, Sha, Kasaei, Hamidreza, Schomaker, Lambert
Imitation learning (IL) enables robots to acquire skills quickly by transferring expert knowledge, which is widely adopted in reinforcement learning (RL) to initialize exploration. However, in long-horizon motion planning tasks, a challenging problem in deploying IL and RL methods is how to generate and collect massive, broadly distributed data such that these methods can generalize effectively. In this work, we solve this problem using our proposed approach called {self-imitation learning by planning (SILP)}, where demonstration data are collected automatically by planning on the visited states from the current policy. SILP is inspired by the observation that successfully visited states in the early reinforcement learning stage are collision-free nodes in the graph-search based motion planner, so we can plan and relabel robot's own trials as demonstrations for policy learning. Due to these self-generated demonstrations, we relieve the human operator from the laborious data preparation process required by IL and RL methods in solving complex motion planning tasks. The evaluation results show that our SILP method achieves higher success rates and enhances sample efficiency compared to selected baselines, and the policy learned in simulation performs well in a real-world placement task with changing goals and obstacles.
Modular Design Patterns for Hybrid Learning and Reasoning Systems: a taxonomy, patterns and use cases
van Bekkum, Michael, de Boer, Maaike, van Harmelen, Frank, Meyer-Vitali, Andrรฉ, Teije, Annette ten
The unification of statistical (data-driven) and symbolic (knowledge-driven) methods is widely recognised as one of the key challenges of modern AI. Recent years have seen large number of publications on such hybrid neuro-symbolic AI systems. That rapidly growing literature is highly diverse and mostly empirical, and is lacking a unifying view of the large variety of these hybrid systems. In this paper we analyse a large body of recent literature and we propose a set of modular design patterns for such hybrid, neuro-symbolic systems. We are able to describe the architecture of a very large number of hybrid systems by composing only a small set of elementary patterns as building blocks. The main contributions of this paper are: 1) a taxonomically organised vocabulary to describe both processes and data structures used in hybrid systems; 2) a set of 15+ design patterns for hybrid AI systems, organised in a set of elementary patterns and a set of compositional patterns; 3) an application of these design patterns in two realistic use-cases for hybrid AI systems. Our patterns reveal similarities between systems that were not recognised until now. Finally, our design patterns extend and refine Kautz' earlier attempt at categorising neuro-symbolic architectures.
Reading and Acting while Blindfolded: The Need for Semantics in Text Game Agents
Yao, Shunyu, Narasimhan, Karthik, Hausknecht, Matthew
Text-based games simulate worlds and interact with players using natural language. Recent work has used them as a testbed for autonomous language-understanding agents, with the motivation being that understanding the meanings of words or semantics is a key component of how humans understand, reason, and act in these worlds. However, it remains unclear to what extent artificial agents utilize semantic understanding of the text. To this end, we perform experiments to systematically reduce the amount of semantic information available to a learning agent. Surprisingly, we find that an agent is capable of achieving high scores even in the complete absence of language semantics, indicating that the currently popular experimental setup and models may be poorly designed to understand and leverage game texts. To remedy this deficiency, we propose an inverse dynamics decoder to regularize the representation space and encourage exploration, which shows improved performance on several games including Zork I. We discuss the implications of our findings for designing future agents with stronger semantic understanding.
Markov Modeling of Time-Series Data using Symbolic Analysis
Markov models are often used to capture the temporal patterns of sequential data for statistical learning applications. While the Hidden Markov modeling-based learning mechanisms are well studied in literature, we analyze a symbolic-dynamics inspired approach. Under this umbrella, Markov modeling of time-series data consists of two major steps -- discretization of continuous attributes followed by estimating the size of temporal memory of the discretized sequence. These two steps are critical for the accurate and concise representation of time-series data in the discrete space. Discretization governs the information content of the resultant discretized sequence. On the other hand, memory estimation of the symbolic sequence helps to extract the predictive patterns in the discretized data. Clearly, the effectiveness of signal representation as a discrete Markov process depends on both these steps. In this paper, we will review the different techniques for discretization and memory estimation for discrete stochastic processes. In particular, we will focus on the individual problems of discretization and order estimation for discrete stochastic process. We will present some results from literature on partitioning from dynamical systems theory and order estimation using concepts of information theory and statistical learning. The paper also presents some related problem formulations which will be useful for machine learning and statistical learning application using the symbolic framework of data analysis. We present some results of statistical analysis of a complex thermoacoustic instability phenomenon during lean-premixed combustion in jet-turbine engines using the proposed Markov modeling method.