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 Markov Models


Safe Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Safety in reinforcement learning has become increasingly important in recent years. Yet, existing solutions either fail to strictly avoid choosing unsafe actions, which may lead to catastrophic results in safety-critical systems, or fail to provide regret guarantees for settings where safety constraints need to be learned. In this paper, we address both problems by first modeling safety as an unknown linear cost function of states and actions, which must always fall below a certain threshold. We then present algorithms, termed SLUCB-QVI and RSLUCB-QVI, for episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) with linear function approximation. We show that SLUCB-QVI and RSLUCB-QVI, while with \emph{no safety violation}, achieve a $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\kappa\sqrt{d^3H^3T}\right)$ regret, nearly matching that of state-of-the-art unsafe algorithms, where $H$ is the duration of each episode, $d$ is the dimension of the feature mapping, $\kappa$ is a constant characterizing the safety constraints, and $T$ is the total number of action plays. We further present numerical simulations that corroborate our theoretical findings.


Preferential Temporal Difference Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Temporal-Difference (TD) learning is a general and very useful tool for estimating the value function of a given policy, which in turn is required to find good policies. Generally speaking, TD learning updates states whenever they are visited. When the agent lands in a state, its value can be used to compute the TD-error, which is then propagated to other states. However, it may be interesting, when computing updates, to take into account other information than whether a state is visited or not. For example, some states might be more important than others (such as states which are frequently seen in a successful trajectory). Or, some states might have unreliable value estimates (for example, due to partial observability or lack of data), making their values less desirable as targets. We propose an approach to re-weighting states used in TD updates, both when they are the input and when they provide the target for the update. We prove that our approach converges with linear function approximation and illustrate its desirable empirical behaviour compared to other TD-style methods.


Model-Free Learning for Two-Player Zero-Sum Partially Observable Markov Games with Perfect Recall

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of learning a Nash equilibrium (NE) in an imperfect information game (IIG) through self-play. Precisely, we focus on two-player, zero-sum, episodic, tabular IIG under the perfect-recall assumption where the only feedback is realizations of the game (bandit feedback). In particular, the dynamic of the IIG is not known -- we can only access it by sampling or interacting with a game simulator. For this learning setting, we provide the Implicit Exploration Online Mirror Descent (IXOMD) algorithm. It is a model-free algorithm with a high-probability bound on the convergence rate to the NE of order $1/\sqrt{T}$ where $T$ is the number of played games. Moreover, IXOMD is computationally efficient as it needs to perform the updates only along the sampled trajectory.


Verified Synthesis of Optimal Safety Controllers for Human-Robot Collaboration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a tool-supported approach for the synthesis, verification and validation of the control software responsible for the safety of the human-robot interaction in manufacturing processes that use collaborative robots. In human-robot collaboration, software-based safety controllers are used to improve operational safety, e.g., by triggering shutdown mechanisms or emergency stops to avoid accidents. Complex robotic tasks and increasingly close human-robot interaction pose new challenges to controller developers and certification authorities. Key among these challenges is the need to assure the correctness of safety controllers under explicit (and preferably weak) assumptions. Our controller synthesis, verification and validation approach is informed by the process, risk analysis, and relevant safety regulations for the target application. Controllers are selected from a design space of feasible controllers according to a set of optimality criteria, are formally verified against correctness criteria, and are translated into executable code and validated in a digital twin. The resulting controller can detect the occurrence of hazards, move the process into a safe state, and, in certain circumstances, return the process to an operational state from which it can resume its original task. We show the effectiveness of our software engineering approach through a case study involving the development of a safety controller for a manufacturing work cell equipped with a collaborative robot.


A Nonmyopic Approach to Cost-Constrained Bayesian Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. BO budgets are typically given in iterations, which implicitly assumes each evaluation has the same cost. In fact, in many BO applications, evaluation costs vary significantly in different regions of the search space. In hyperparameter optimization, the time spent on neural network training increases with layer size; in clinical trials, the monetary cost of drug compounds vary; and in optimal control, control actions have differing complexities. Cost-constrained BO measures convergence with alternative cost metrics such as time, money, or energy, for which the sample efficiency of standard BO methods is ill-suited. For cost-constrained BO, cost efficiency is far more important than sample efficiency. In this paper, we formulate cost-constrained BO as a constrained Markov decision process (CMDP), and develop an efficient rollout approximation to the optimal CMDP policy that takes both the cost and future iterations into account. We validate our method on a collection of hyperparameter optimization problems as well as a sensor set selection application.


Temporal and Object Quantification Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present Temporal and Object Quantification Networks (TOQ-Nets), a new class of neuro-symbolic networks with a structural bias that enables them to learn to recognize complex relational-temporal events. This is done by including reasoning layers that implement finite-domain quantification over objects and time. The structure allows them to generalize directly to input instances with varying numbers of objects in temporal sequences of varying lengths. We evaluate TOQ-Nets on input domains that require recognizing event-types in terms of complex temporal relational patterns. We demonstrate that TOQ-Nets can generalize from small amounts of data to scenarios containing more objects than were present during training and to temporal warpings of input sequences.


Thompson Sampling with a Mixture Prior

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study Thompson sampling (TS) in online decision-making problems where the uncertain environment is sampled from a mixture distribution. This is relevant to multi-task settings, where a learning agent is faced with different classes of problems. We incorporate this structure in a natural way by initializing TS with a mixture prior -- dubbed MixTS -- and develop a novel, general technique for analyzing the regret of TS with such priors. We apply this technique to derive Bayes regret bounds for MixTS in both linear bandits and tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). Our regret bounds reflect the structure of the problem and depend on the number of components and confidence width of each component of the prior. Finally, we demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of MixTS in both synthetic and real-world experiments.


Policy Finetuning: Bridging Sample-Efficient Offline and Online Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent theoretical work studies sample-efficient reinforcement learning (RL) extensively in two settings: learning interactively in the environment (online RL), or learning from an offline dataset (offline RL). However, existing algorithms and theories for learning near-optimal policies in these two settings are rather different and disconnected. Towards bridging this gap, this paper initiates the theoretical study of policy finetuning, that is, online RL where the learner has additional access to a "reference policy" $\mu$ close to the optimal policy $\pi_\star$ in a certain sense. We consider the policy finetuning problem in episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with $S$ states, $A$ actions, and horizon length $H$. We first design a sharp offline reduction algorithm -- which simply executes $\mu$ and runs offline policy optimization on the collected dataset -- that finds an $\varepsilon$ near-optimal policy within $\widetilde{O}(H^3SC^\star/\varepsilon^2)$ episodes, where $C^\star$ is the single-policy concentrability coefficient between $\mu$ and $\pi_\star$. This offline result is the first that matches the sample complexity lower bound in this setting, and resolves a recent open question in offline RL. We then establish an $\Omega(H^3S\min\{C^\star, A\}/\varepsilon^2)$ sample complexity lower bound for any policy finetuning algorithm, including those that can adaptively explore the environment. This implies that -- perhaps surprisingly -- the optimal policy finetuning algorithm is either offline reduction or a purely online RL algorithm that does not use $\mu$. Finally, we design a new hybrid offline/online algorithm for policy finetuning that achieves better sample complexity than both vanilla offline reduction and purely online RL algorithms, in a relaxed setting where $\mu$ only satisfies concentrability partially up to a certain time step.


Information Avoidance and Overvaluation in Sequential Decision Making under Epistemic Constraints

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decision makers involved in the management of civil assets and systems usually take actions under constraints imposed by societal regulations. Some of these constraints are related to epistemic quantities, as the probability of failure events and the corresponding risks. Sensors and inspectors can provide useful information supporting the control process (e.g. the maintenance process of an asset), and decisions about collecting this information should rely on an analysis of its cost and value. When societal regulations encode an economic perspective that is not aligned with that of the decision makers, the Value of Information (VoI) can be negative (i.e., information sometimes hurts), and almost irrelevant information can even have a significant value (either positive or negative), for agents acting under these epistemic constraints. We refer to these phenomena as Information Avoidance (IA) and Information OverValuation (IOV). In this paper, we illustrate how to assess VoI in sequential decision making under epistemic constraints (as those imposed by societal regulations), by modeling a Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP) and evaluating non optimal policies via Finite State Controllers (FSCs). We focus on the value of collecting information at current time, and on that of collecting sequential information, we illustrate how these values are related and we discuss how IA and IOV can occur in those settings.


Unsupervised Machine Learning Hidden Markov Models in Python

#artificialintelligence

The Hidden Markov Model or HMM is all about learning sequences. A lot of the data that would be very useful for us to model is in sequences. Stock prices are sequences of prices. Language is a sequence of words. Credit scoring involves sequences of borrowing and repaying money, and we can use those sequences to predict whether or not you're going to default.