Autonomous systems often operate in environments where the behavior of multiple agents is coordinated by a shared global state. Reliable estimation of the global state is thus critical for successfully operating in a multi-agent setting. We introduce agent-aware state estimation -- a framework for calculating indirect estimations of state given observations of the behavior of other agents in the environment. We also introduce transition-independent agent-aware state estimation -- a tractable class of agent-aware state estimation -- and show that it allows the speed of inference to scale linearly with the number of agents in the environment. As an example, we model traffic light classification in instances of complete loss of direct observation. By taking into account observations of vehicular behavior from multiple directions of traffic, our approach exhibits accuracy higher than that of existing traffic light-only HMM methods on a real-world autonomous vehicle data set under a variety of simulated occlusion scenarios.

The prevalence of volatility in the stock market, makes predicting stock prices anything but simple. Before investing, investors perform two kinds of analysis [patel2015predicting]. The first of this is fundamental analysis, where investors look into the value of stocks, the industry performance, economical factors, etc. and decide whether or not to invest. Technical analysis is the second, more advanced, analysis which involves evaluating those stocks through the use of statistics and activity in the current market, such as volume traded and previous price levels [patel2015predicting]. Technical analysts use charts to recognise patterns and try to predict how a stock price will change. Malkiel and Fama's Efficient market hypothesis states that predicting values of stocks considering financial information is possible, because the prices are informationally efficient [malkiel1970efficient].

We investigate active learning in Gaussian Process state-space models (GPSSM). Our problem is to actively steer the system through latent states by determining its inputs such that the underlying dynamics can be optimally learned by a GPSSM. In order that the most informative inputs are selected, we employ mutual information as our active learning criterion. In particular, we present two approaches for the approximation of mutual information for the GPSSM given latent states. The proposed approaches are evaluated in several physical systems where we actively learn the underlying non-linear dynamics represented by the state-space model.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown a promising performance in learning optimal policies for a variety of sequential decision-making tasks. However, in many real-world RL problems, besides optimizing the main objectives, the agent is expected to satisfy a certain level of safety (e.g., avoiding collisions in autonomous driving). While RL problems are commonly formalized as Markov decision processes (MDPs), safety constraints are incorporated via constrained Markov decision processes (CMDPs). Although recent advances in safe RL have enabled learning safe policies in CMDPs, these safety requirements should be satisfied during both training and in the deployment process. Furthermore, it is shown that in memory-based and partially observable environments, these methods fail to maintain safety over unseen out-of-distribution observations. To address these limitations, we propose a Lyapunov-based uncertainty-aware safe RL model. The introduced model adopts a Lyapunov function that converts trajectory-based constraints to a set of local linear constraints. Furthermore, to ensure the safety of the agent in highly uncertain environments, an uncertainty quantification method is developed that enables identifying risk-averse actions through estimating the probability of constraint violations. Moreover, a Transformers model is integrated to provide the agent with memory to process long time horizons of information via the self-attention mechanism. The proposed model is evaluated in grid-world navigation tasks where safety is defined as avoiding static and dynamic obstacles in fully and partially observable environments. The results of these experiments show a significant improvement in the performance of the agent both in achieving optimality and satisfying safety constraints.

MCMC methods are a family of algorithms that uses Markov Chains to perform Monte Carlo estimate. The name gives us a hint, that it is composed of two components -- Monte Carlo and Markov Chain. Let us understand them separately and in their combined form. Monte Carlo method derives its name from a Monte Carlo casino in Monaco. It is a technique for sampling from a probability distribution and using those samples to approximate desired quantity. In other words, it uses randomness to estimate some deterministic quantity of interest.

Recent years have seen a surge in research on deep interpretable neural networks with decision trees as one of the most commonly incorporated tools. There are at least three advantages of using decision trees over logistic regression classification models: they are easy to interpret since they are based on binary decisions, they can make decisions faster, and they provide a hierarchy of classes. However, one of the well-known drawbacks of decision trees, as compared to decision graphs, is that decision trees cannot reuse the decision nodes. Nevertheless, decision graphs were not commonly used in deep learning due to the lack of efficient gradient-based training techniques. In this paper, we fill this gap and provide a general paradigm based on Markov processes, which allows for efficient training of the special type of decision graphs, which we call Self-Organizing Neural Graphs (SONG). We provide an extensive theoretical study of SONG, complemented by experiments conducted on Letter, Connect4, MNIST, CIFAR, and TinyImageNet datasets, showing that our method performs on par or better than existing decision models.

Packet routing is a fundamental problem in communication networks that decides how the packets are directed from their source nodes to their destination nodes through some intermediate nodes. With the increasing complexity of network topology and highly dynamic traffic demand, conventional model-based and rule-based routing schemes show significant limitations, due to the simplified and unrealistic model assumptions, and lack of flexibility and adaption. Adding intelligence to the network control is becoming a trend and the key to achieving high-efficiency network operation. In this paper, we develop a model-free and data-driven routing strategy by leveraging reinforcement learning (RL), where routers interact with the network and learn from the experience to make some good routing configurations for the future. Considering the graph nature of the network topology, we design a multi-agent RL framework in combination with Graph Neural Network (GNN), tailored to the routing problem. Three deployment paradigms, centralized, federated, and cooperated learning, are explored respectively. Simulation results demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms some existing benchmark algorithms in terms of packet transmission delay and affordable load.

We explore the reinforcement learning approach to designing controllers by extensively discussing the case of a quadcopter attitude controller. We provide all details allowing to reproduce our approach, starting with a model of the dynamics of a crazyflie 2.0 under various nominal and non-nominal conditions, including partial motor failures and wind gusts. We develop a robust form of a signal temporal logic to quantitatively evaluate the vehicle's behavior and measure the performance of controllers. The paper thoroughly describes the choices in training algorithms, neural net architecture, hyperparameters, observation space in view of the different performance metrics we have introduced. We discuss the robustness of the obtained controllers, both to partial loss of power for one rotor and to wind gusts and finish by drawing conclusions on practical controller design by reinforcement learning.

The goal of dialogue state tracking (DST) is to predict the current dialogue state given all previous dialogue contexts. Existing approaches generally predict the dialogue state at every turn from scratch. However, the overwhelming majority of the slots in each turn should simply inherit the slot values from the previous turn. Therefore, the mechanism of treating slots equally in each turn not only is inefficient but also may lead to additional errors because of the redundant slot value generation. To address this problem, we devise the two-stage DSS-DST which consists of the Dual Slot Selector based on the current turn dialogue, and the Slot Value Generator based on the dialogue history. The Dual Slot Selector determines each slot whether to update slot value or to inherit the slot value from the previous turn from two aspects: (1) if there is a strong relationship between it and the current turn dialogue utterances; (2) if a slot value with high reliability can be obtained for it through the current turn dialogue. The slots selected to be updated are permitted to enter the Slot Value Generator to update values by a hybrid method, while the other slots directly inherit the values from the previous turn. Empirical results show that our method achieves 56.93%, 60.73%, and 58.04% joint accuracy on MultiWOZ 2.0, MultiWOZ 2.1, and MultiWOZ 2.2 datasets respectively and achieves a new state-of-the-art performance with significant improvements.

Rational verification is the problem of determining which temporal logic properties will hold in a multi-agent system, under the assumption that agents in the system act rationally, by choosing strategies that collectively form a game-theoretic equilibrium. Previous work in this area has largely focussed on deterministic systems. In this paper, we develop the theory and algorithms for rational verification in probabilistic systems. We focus on concurrent stochastic games (CSGs), which can be used to model uncertainty and randomness in complex multi-agent environments. We study the rational verification problem for both non-cooperative games and cooperative games in the qualitative probabilistic setting. In the former case, we consider LTL properties satisfied by the Nash equilibria of the game and in the latter case LTL properties satisfied by the core. In both cases, we show that the problem is 2EXPTIME-complete, thus not harder than the much simpler verification problem of model checking LTL properties of systems modelled as Markov decision processes (MDPs).