We propose the Bayes-UCBVI algorithm for reinforcement learning in tabular, stage-dependent, episodic Markov decision process: a natural extension of the Bayes-UCB algorithm by Kaufmann et al. (2012) for multi-armed bandits. Our method uses the quantile of a Q-value function posterior as upper confidence bound on the optimal Q-value function. For Bayes-UCBVI, we prove a regret bound of order $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{H^3SAT})$ where $H$ is the length of one episode, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ the number of actions, $T$ the number of episodes, that matches the lower-bound of $\Omega(\sqrt{H^3SAT})$ up to poly-$\log$ terms in $H,S,A,T$ for a large enough $T$. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that obtains an optimal dependence on the horizon $H$ (and $S$) without the need for an involved Bernstein-like bonus or noise. Crucial to our analysis is a new fine-grained anti-concentration bound for a weighted Dirichlet sum that can be of independent interest. We then explain how Bayes-UCBVI can be easily extended beyond the tabular setting, exhibiting a strong link between our algorithm and Bayesian bootstrap (Rubin, 1981).

As the industry of autonomous driving grows, so does the potential interaction of groups of autonomous cars. Combined with the advancement of Artificial Intelligence and simulation, such groups can be simulated, and safety-critical models can be learned controlling the cars within. This study applies reinforcement learning to the problem of multi-agent car parking, where groups of cars aim to efficiently park themselves, while remaining safe and rational. Utilising robust tools and machine learning frameworks, we design and implement a flexible car parking environment in the form of a Markov decision process with independent learners, exploiting multi-agent communication. We implement a suite of tools to perform experiments at scale, obtaining models parking up to 7 cars with over a 98.1% success rate, significantly beating existing single-agent models. We also obtain several results relating to competitive and collaborative behaviours exhibited by the cars in our environment, with varying densities and levels of communication. Notably, we discover a form of collaboration that cannot arise without competition, and a 'leaky' form of collaboration whereby agents collaborate without sufficient state. Such work has numerous potential applications in the autonomous driving and fleet management industries, and provides several useful techniques and benchmarks for the application of reinforcement learning to multi-agent car parking.

Each state has a certain probability of transitioning to each other state, so each time you are in a state and want to transition, a markov chain can predict outcomes based on pre-existing probability data. A Markov model is a stochastic model with the property that future states are determined only by the current state -- in other words, the model has no memory; it only knows what state it's in now, not any of the states which occurred previously. A Markov chain is one example of a Markov model, but other examples exist. One other example commonly used in the field of artificial intelligence is the Hidden Markov model, which is a Markov chain for which the state is not directly observable. There are quite a few applications of Markov Chains to AI -- Markov Chains are useful basically when you want to model something that's in discrete states, but you don't understand how it works.

Dynamic mechanism design has garnered significant attention from both computer scientists and economists in recent years. By allowing agents to interact with the seller over multiple rounds, where agents' reward functions may change with time and are state-dependent, the framework is able to model a rich class of real-world problems. In these works, the interaction between agents and sellers is often assumed to follow a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We focus on the setting where the reward and transition functions of such an MDP are not known a priori, and we are attempting to recover the optimal mechanism using an a priori collected data set. In the setting where the function approximation is employed to handle large state spaces, with only mild assumptions on the expressiveness of the function class, we are able to design a dynamic mechanism using offline reinforcement learning algorithms. Moreover, learned mechanisms approximately have three key desiderata: efficiency, individual rationality, and truthfulness. Our algorithm is based on the pessimism principle and only requires a mild assumption on the coverage of the offline data set. To the best of our knowledge, our work provides the first offline RL algorithm for dynamic mechanism design without assuming uniform coverage.

In this paper, we study the problem of inferring spatially-varying Gaussian Markov random fields (SV-GMRF) where the goal is to learn a network of sparse, context-specific GMRFs representing network relationships between genes. An important application of SV-GMRFs is in inference of gene regulatory networks from spatially-resolved transcriptomics datasets. The current work on inference of SV-GMRFs are based on the regularized maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and suffer from overwhelmingly high computational cost due to their highly nonlinear nature. To alleviate this challenge, we propose a simple and efficient optimization problem in lieu of MLE that comes equipped with strong statistical and computational guarantees. Our proposed optimization problem is extremely efficient in practice: we can solve instances of SV-GMRFs with more than 2 million variables in less than 2 minutes. We apply the developed framework to study how gene regulatory networks in Glioblastoma are spatially rewired within tissue, and identify prominent activity of the transcription factor HES4 and ribosomal proteins as characterizing the gene expression network in the tumor peri-vascular niche that is known to harbor treatment resistant stem cells.

Before delegating a task to an autonomous system, a human operator may want a guarantee about the behavior of the system. This paper extends previous work on conformal prediction for functional data and conformalized quantile regression to provide conformal prediction intervals over the future behavior of an autonomous system executing a fixed control policy on a Markov Decision Process (MDP). The prediction intervals are constructed by applying conformal corrections to prediction intervals computed by quantile regression. The resulting intervals guarantee that with probability $1-\delta$ the observed trajectory will lie inside the prediction interval, where the probability is computed with respect to the starting state distribution and the stochasticity of the MDP. The method is illustrated on MDPs for invasive species management and StarCraft2 battles.

We propose discrete Langevin proposal (DLP), a simple and scalable gradient-based proposal for sampling complex high-dimensional discrete distributions. In contrast to Gibbs sampling-based methods, DLP is able to update all coordinates in parallel in a single step and the magnitude of changes is controlled by a stepsize. This allows a cheap and efficient exploration in the space of high-dimensional and strongly correlated variables. We prove the efficiency of DLP by showing that the asymptotic bias of its stationary distribution is zero for log-quadratic distributions, and is small for distributions that are close to being log-quadratic. With DLP, we develop several variants of sampling algorithms, including unadjusted, Metropolis-adjusted, stochastic and preconditioned versions. DLP outperforms many popular alternatives on a wide variety of tasks, including Ising models, restricted Boltzmann machines, deep energy-based models, binary neural networks and language generation.

A common way to learn and analyze statistical models is to consider operations in the model parameter space. But what happens if we optimize in the parameter space and there is no one-to-one mapping between the parameter space and the underlying statistical model space? Such cases frequently occur for hierarchical models which include statistical mixtures or stochastic neural networks, and these models are said to be singular. Singular models reveal several important and well-studied problems in machine learning like the decrease in convergence speed of learning trajectories due to attractor behaviors. In this work, we propose a relative reparameterization technique of the parameter space, which yields a general method for extracting regular submodels from singular models. Our method enforces model identifiability during training and we study the learning dynamics for gradient descent and expectation maximization for Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) under relative parameterization, showing faster experimental convergence and a improved manifold shape of the dynamics around the singularity. Extending the analysis beyond GMMs, we furthermore analyze the Fisher information matrix under relative reparameterization and its influence on the generalization error, and show how the method can be applied to more complex models like deep neural networks.

We study reinforcement learning for partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with infinite observation and state spaces, which remains less investigated theoretically. To this end, we make the first attempt at bridging partial observability and function approximation for a class of POMDPs with a linear structure. In detail, we propose a reinforcement learning algorithm (Optimistic Exploration via Adversarial Integral Equation or OP-TENET) that attains an $\epsilon$-optimal policy within $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ episodes. In particular, the sample complexity scales polynomially in the intrinsic dimension of the linear structure and is independent of the size of the observation and state spaces. The sample efficiency of OP-TENET is enabled by a sequence of ingredients: (i) a Bellman operator with finite memory, which represents the value function in a recursive manner, (ii) the identification and estimation of such an operator via an adversarial integral equation, which features a smoothed discriminator tailored to the linear structure, and (iii) the exploration of the observation and state spaces via optimism, which is based on quantifying the uncertainty in the adversarial integral equation.

Machine learning methods on graphs have proven useful in many applications due to their ability to handle generally structured data. The framework of Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRFs) provides a principled way to define Gaussian models on graphs by utilizing their sparsity structure. We propose a flexible GMRF model for general graphs built on the multi-layer structure of Deep GMRFs, originally proposed for lattice graphs only. By designing a new type of layer we enable the model to scale to large graphs. The layer is constructed to allow for efficient training using variational inference and existing software frameworks for Graph Neural Networks. For a Gaussian likelihood, close to exact Bayesian inference is available for the latent field. This allows for making predictions with accompanying uncertainty estimates. The usefulness of the proposed model is verified by experiments on a number of synthetic and real world datasets, where it compares favorably to other both Bayesian and deep learning methods.