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 Markov Models


Deep Reinforcement Learning for mmWave Initial Beam Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the applicability of deep reinforcement learning algorithms to the adaptive initial access beam alignment problem for mmWave communications using the state-of-the-art proximal policy optimization algorithm as an example. In comparison to recent unsupervised learning based approaches developed to tackle this problem, deep reinforcement learning has the potential to address a new and wider range of applications, since, in principle, no (differentiable) model of the channel and/or the whole system is required for training, and only agent-environment interactions are necessary to learn an algorithm (be it online or using a recorded dataset). We show that, although the chosen off-the-shelf deep reinforcement learning agent fails to perform well when trained on realistic problem sizes, introducing action space shaping in the form of beamforming modules vastly improves the performance, without sacrificing much generalizability. Using this add-on, the agent is able to deliver competitive performance to various state-of-the-art methods on simulated environments, even under realistic problem sizes. This demonstrates that through well-directed modification, deep reinforcement learning may have a chance to compete with other approaches in this area, opening up many straightforward extensions to other/similar scenarios.


Utilization of domain knowledge to improve POMDP belief estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) framework is a common approach for decision making under uncertainty. Recently, multiple studies have shown that by integrating relevant domain knowledge into POMDP belief estimation, we can improve the learned policy's performance. In this study, we propose a novel method for integrating the domain knowledge into probabilistic belief update in POMDP framework using Jeffrey's rule and normalization. We show that the domain knowledge can be utilized to reduce the data requirement and improve performance for POMDP policy learning with RL.


HOPE: Human-Centric Off-Policy Evaluation for E-Learning and Healthcare

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) has been extensively researched for enhancing human-environment interactions in various human-centric tasks, including e-learning and healthcare. Since deploying and evaluating policies online are high-stakes in such tasks, off-policy evaluation (OPE) is crucial for inducing effective policies. In human-centric environments, however, OPE is challenging because the underlying state is often unobservable, while only aggregate rewards can be observed (students' test scores or whether a patient is released from the hospital eventually). In this work, we propose a human-centric OPE (HOPE) to handle partial observability and aggregated rewards in such environments. Specifically, we reconstruct immediate rewards from the aggregated rewards considering partial observability to estimate expected total returns. We provide a theoretical bound for the proposed method, and we have conducted extensive experiments in real-world human-centric tasks, including sepsis treatments and an intelligent tutoring system. Our approach reliably predicts the returns of different policies and outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks using both standard validation methods and human-centric significance tests.


MM Algorithms to Estimate Parameters in Continuous-time Markov Chains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are popular modeling formalism that constitutes the underlying semantics for real-time probabilistic systems such as queuing networks, stochastic process algebras, and calculi for systems biology. Prism and Storm are popular model checking tools that provide a number of powerful analysis techniques for CTMCs. These tools accept models expressed as the parallel composition of a number of modules interacting with each other. The outcome of the analysis is strongly dependent on the parameter values used in the model which govern the timing and probability of events of the resulting CTMC. However, for some applications, parameter values have to be empirically estimated from partially-observable executions. In this work, we address the problem of estimating parameter values of CTMCs expressed as Prism models from a number of partially-observable executions. We introduce the class parametric CTMCs -- CTMCs where transition rates are polynomial functions over a set of parameters -- as an abstraction of CTMCs covering a large class of Prism models. Then, building on a theory of algorithms known by the initials MM, for minorization-maximization, we present iterative maximum likelihood estimation algorithms for parametric CTMCs covering two learning scenarios: when both state-labels and dwell times are observable, or just state-labels are. We conclude by illustrating the use of our technique in a simple but non-trivial case study: the analysis of the spread of COVID-19 in presence of lockdown countermeasures.


A Survey of Geometric Optimization for Deep Learning: From Euclidean Space to Riemannian Manifold

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although Deep Learning (DL) has achieved success in complex Artificial Intelligence (AI) tasks, it suffers from various notorious problems (e.g., feature redundancy, and vanishing or exploding gradients), since updating parameters in Euclidean space cannot fully exploit the geometric structure of the solution space. As a promising alternative solution, Riemannian-based DL uses geometric optimization to update parameters on Riemannian manifolds and can leverage the underlying geometric information. Accordingly, this article presents a comprehensive survey of applying geometric optimization in DL. At first, this article introduces the basic procedure of the geometric optimization, including various geometric optimizers and some concepts of Riemannian manifold. Subsequently, this article investigates the application of geometric optimization in different DL networks in various AI tasks, e.g., convolution neural network, recurrent neural network, transfer learning, and optimal transport. Additionally, typical public toolboxes that implement optimization on manifold are also discussed. Finally, this article makes a performance comparison between different deep geometric optimization methods under image recognition scenarios.


Distances for Markov Chains, and Their Differentiation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

(Directed) graphs with node attributes are a common type of data in various applications and there is a vast literature on developing metrics and efficient algorithms for comparing them. Recently, in the graph learning and optimization communities, a range of new approaches have been developed for comparing graphs with node attributes, leveraging ideas such as the Optimal Transport (OT) and the Weisfeiler-Lehman (WL) graph isomorphism test. Two state-of-the-art representatives are the OTC distance proposed by O'Connor et al., 2022 and the WL distance by Chen et al.,2022. Interestingly, while these two distances are developed based on different ideas, we observe that they both view graphs as Markov chains, and are deeply connected. Indeed, in this paper, we propose a unified framework to generate distances for Markov chains (thus including (directed) graphs with node attributes), which we call the Optimal Transport Markov (OTM) distances, that encompass both the OTC and the WL distances. We further introduce a special one-parameter family of distances within our OTM framework, called the discounted WL distance. We show that the discounted WL distance has nice theoretical properties and can address several limitations of the existing OTC and WL distances. Furthermore, contrary to the OTC and the WL distances, we show our new discounted WL distance can be differentiated (after an entropy-regularization similar to the Sinkhorn distance), making it suitable for use in learning frameworks, e.g., as the reconstruction loss in a graph generative model.


A Probabilistic Generative Model for Tracking Multi-Knowledge Concept Mastery Probability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge tracing aims to track students' knowledge status over time to predict students' future performance accurately. Markov chain-based knowledge tracking (MCKT) models can track knowledge concept mastery probability over time. However, as the number of tracked knowledge concepts increases, the time complexity of MCKT predicting student performance increases exponentially (also called explaining away problem. In addition, the existing MCKT models only consider the relationship between students' knowledge status and problems when modeling students' responses but ignore the relationship between knowledge concepts in the same problem. To address these challenges, we propose an inTerpretable pRobAbilistiC gEnerative moDel (TRACED), which can track students' numerous knowledge concepts mastery probabilities over time. To solve \emph{explain away problem}, we design Long and Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based networks to approximate the posterior distribution, predict students' future performance, and propose a heuristic algorithm to train LSTMs and probabilistic graphical model jointly. To better model students' exercise responses, we proposed a logarithmic linear model with three interactive strategies, which models students' exercise responses by considering the relationship among students' knowledge status, knowledge concept, and problems. We conduct experiments with four real-world datasets in three knowledge-driven tasks. The experimental results show that TRACED outperforms existing knowledge tracing methods in predicting students' future performance and can learn the relationship among students, knowledge concepts, and problems from students' exercise sequences. We also conduct several case studies. The case studies show that TRACED exhibits excellent interpretability and thus has the potential for personalized automatic feedback in the real-world educational environment.


Settling the Sample Complexity of Model-Based Offline Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper is concerned with offline reinforcement learning (RL), which learns using pre-collected data without further exploration. Effective offline RL would be able to accommodate distribution shift and limited data coverage. However, prior algorithms or analyses either suffer from suboptimal sample complexities or incur high burn-in cost to reach sample optimality, thus posing an impediment to efficient offline RL in sample-starved applications. We demonstrate that the model-based (or "plug-in") approach achieves minimax-optimal sample complexity without burn-in cost for tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs). Concretely, consider a finite-horizon (resp. $\gamma$-discounted infinite-horizon) MDP with $S$ states and horizon $H$ (resp. effective horizon $\frac{1}{1-\gamma}$), and suppose the distribution shift of data is reflected by some single-policy clipped concentrability coefficient $C^{\star}_{\text{clipped}}$. We prove that model-based offline RL yields $\varepsilon$-accuracy with a sample complexity of \[ \begin{cases} \frac{H^{4}SC_{\text{clipped}}^{\star}}{\varepsilon^{2}} & (\text{finite-horizon MDPs}) \frac{SC_{\text{clipped}}^{\star}}{(1-\gamma)^{3}\varepsilon^{2}} & (\text{infinite-horizon MDPs}) \end{cases} \] up to log factor, which is minimax optimal for the entire $\varepsilon$-range. The proposed algorithms are ``pessimistic'' variants of value iteration with Bernstein-style penalties, and do not require sophisticated variance reduction. Our analysis framework is established upon delicate leave-one-out decoupling arguments in conjunction with careful self-bounding techniques tailored to MDPs.


Model-Based Decentralized Policy Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decentralized policy optimization has been commonly used in cooperative multi-agent tasks. However, since all agents are updating their policies simultaneously, from the perspective of individual agents, the environment is non-stationary, resulting in it being hard to guarantee monotonic policy improvement. To help the policy improvement be stable and monotonic, we propose model-based decentralized policy optimization (MDPO), which incorporates a latent variable function to help construct the transition and reward function from an individual perspective. We theoretically analyze that the policy optimization of MDPO is more stable than model-free decentralized policy optimization. Moreover, due to non-stationarity, the latent variable function is varying and hard to be modeled. We further propose a latent variable prediction method to reduce the error of the latent variable function, which theoretically contributes to the monotonic policy improvement. Empirically, MDPO can indeed obtain superior performance than model-free decentralized policy optimization in a variety of cooperative multi-agent tasks.


Quantum Computing Provides Exponential Regret Improvement in Episodic Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we investigate the problem of \textit{episodic reinforcement learning} with quantum oracles for state evolution. To this end, we propose an \textit{Upper Confidence Bound} (UCB) based quantum algorithmic framework to facilitate learning of a finite-horizon MDP. Our quantum algorithm achieves an exponential improvement in regret as compared to the classical counterparts, achieving a regret of $\Tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1)$ as compared to $\Tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{K})$ \footnote{$\Tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\cdot)$ hides logarithmic terms.}, $K$ being the number of training episodes. In order to achieve this advantage, we exploit efficient quantum mean estimation technique that provides quadratic improvement in the number of i.i.d. samples needed to estimate the mean of sub-Gaussian random variables as compared to classical mean estimation. This improvement is a key to the significant regret improvement in quantum reinforcement learning. We provide proof-of-concept experiments on various RL environments that in turn demonstrate performance gains of the proposed algorithmic framework.