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 Markov Models


A Low-Delay MAC for IoT Applications: Decentralized Optimal Scheduling of Queues without Explicit State Information Sharing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider a system of several collocated nodes sharing a time slotted wireless channel, and seek a MAC (medium access control) that (i) provides low mean delay, (ii) has distributed control (i.e., there is no central scheduler), and (iii) does not require explicit exchange of state information or control signals. The design of such MAC protocols must keep in mind the need for contention access at light traffic, and scheduled access in heavy traffic, leading to the long-standing interest in hybrid, adaptive MACs. Working in the discrete time setting, for the distributed MAC design, we consider a practical information structure where each node has local information and some common information obtained from overhearing. In this setting, "ZMAC" is an existing protocol that is hybrid and adaptive. We approach the problem via two steps (1) We show that it is sufficient for the policy to be "greedy" and "exhaustive". Limiting the policy to this class reduces the problem to obtaining a queue switching policy at queue emptiness instants. (2) Formulating the delay optimal scheduling as a POMDP (partially observed Markov decision process), we show that the optimal switching rule is Stochastic Largest Queue (SLQ). Using this theory as the basis, we then develop a practical distributed scheduler, QZMAC, which is also tunable. We implement QZMAC on standard off-the-shelf TelosB motes and also use simulations to compare QZMAC with the full-knowledge centralized scheduler, and with ZMAC. We use our implementation to study the impact of false detection while overhearing the common information, and the efficiency of QZMAC. Our simulation results show that the mean delay with QZMAC is close that of the full-knowledge centralized scheduler.


A Markov Framework for Learning and Reasoning About Strategies in Professional Soccer

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Strategy-optimization is a fundamental element of dynamic and complex team sports such as soccer, American football, and basketball. As the amount of data that is collected from matches in these sports has increased, so has the demand for data-driven decisionmaking support. If alternative strategies need to be balanced, a data-driven approach can uncover insights that are not available from qualitative analysis. This could tremendously aid teams in their match preparations. In this work, we propose a novel Markov modelbased framework for soccer that allows reasoning about the specific strategies teams use in order to gain insights into the efficiency of each strategy. The framework consists of two components: (1) a learning component, which entails modeling a team’s offensive behavior by learning a Markov decision process (MDP) from event data that is collected from the team’s matches, and (2) a reasoning component, which involves a novel application of probabilistic model checking to reason about the efficacy of the learned strategies of each team. In this paper, we provide an overview of this framework and illustrate it on several use cases using real-world event data from three leagues. Our results show that the framework can be used to reason about the shot decision-making of teams and to optimise the defensive strategies used when playing against a particular team. The general ideas presented in this framework can easily be extended to other sports.


Autonomous Driving with Deep Reinforcement Learning in CARLA Simulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nowadays, autonomous vehicles are gaining traction due to their numerous potential applications in resolving a variety of other real-world challenges. However, developing autonomous vehicles need huge amount of training and testing before deploying it to real world. While the field of reinforcement learning (RL) has evolved into a powerful learning framework to the development of deep representation learning, and it is now capable of learning complicated policies in high-dimensional environments like in autonomous vehicles. In this regard, we make an effort, using Deep Q-Learning, to discover a method by which an autonomous car may maintain its lane at top speed while avoiding other vehicles. After that, we used CARLA simulation environment to test and verify our newly acquired policy based on the problem formulation.


The Unintended Consequences of Discount Regularization: Improving Regularization in Certainty Equivalence Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Discount regularization, using a shorter planning horizon when calculating the optimal policy, is a popular choice to restrict planning to a less complex set of policies when estimating an MDP from sparse or noisy data (Jiang et al., 2015). It is commonly understood that discount regularization functions by de-emphasizing or ignoring delayed effects. In this paper, we reveal an alternate view of discount regularization that exposes unintended consequences. We demonstrate that planning under a lower discount factor produces an identical optimal policy to planning using any prior on the transition matrix that has the same distribution for all states and actions. In fact, it functions like a prior with stronger regularization on state-action pairs with more transition data. This leads to poor performance when the transition matrix is estimated from data sets with uneven amounts of data across state-action pairs. Our equivalence theorem leads to an explicit formula to set regularization parameters locally for individual state-action pairs rather than globally. We demonstrate the failures of discount regularization and how we remedy them using our state-action-specific method across simple empirical examples as well as a medical cancer simulator.


Robust Anytime Learning of Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are formal models commonly used in sequential decision-making. MDPs capture the stochasticity that may arise, for instance, from imprecise actuators via probabilities in the transition function. However, in data-driven applications, deriving precise probabilities from (limited) data introduces statistical errors that may lead to unexpected or undesirable outcomes. Uncertain MDPs (uMDPs) do not require precise probabilities but instead use so-called uncertainty sets in the transitions, accounting for such limited data. Tools from the formal verification community efficiently compute robust policies that provably adhere to formal specifications, like safety constraints, under the worst-case instance in the uncertainty set. We continuously learn the transition probabilities of an MDP in a robust anytime-learning approach that combines a dedicated Bayesian inference scheme with the computation of robust policies. In particular, our method (1) approximates probabilities as intervals, (2) adapts to new data that may be inconsistent with an intermediate model, and (3) may be stopped at any time to compute a robust policy on the uMDP that faithfully captures the data so far. Furthermore, our method is capable of adapting to changes in the environment. We show the effectiveness of our approach and compare it to robust policies computed on uMDPs learned by the UCRL2 reinforcement learning algorithm in an experimental evaluation on several benchmarks.


Better Training of GFlowNets with Local Credit and Incomplete Trajectories

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generative Flow Networks or GFlowNets are related to Monte-Carlo Markov chain methods (as they sample from a distribution specified by an energy function), reinforcement learning (as they learn a policy to sample composed objects through a sequence of steps), generative models (as they learn to represent and sample from a distribution) and amortized variational methods (as they can be used to learn to approximate and sample from an otherwise intractable posterior, given a prior and a likelihood). They are trained to generate an object $x$ through a sequence of steps with probability proportional to some reward function $R(x)$ (or $\exp(-\mathcal{E}(x))$ with $\mathcal{E}(x)$ denoting the energy function), given at the end of the generative trajectory. Like for other RL settings where the reward is only given at the end, the efficiency of training and credit assignment may suffer when those trajectories are longer. With previous GFlowNet work, no learning was possible from incomplete trajectories (lacking a terminal state and the computation of the associated reward). In this paper, we consider the case where the energy function can be applied not just to terminal states but also to intermediate states. This is for example achieved when the energy function is additive, with terms available along the trajectory. We show how to reparameterize the GFlowNet state flow function to take advantage of the partial reward already accrued at each state. This enables a training objective that can be applied to update parameters even with incomplete trajectories. Even when complete trajectories are available, being able to obtain more localized credit and gradients is found to speed up training convergence, as demonstrated across many simulations.


Development of a Trust-Aware User Simulator for Statistical Proactive Dialog Modeling in Human-AI Teams

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

HAIT requires close coordination between humans and AI teammates to work together towards a common goal [40]. Effective communication, prediction of teammates' actions, and high-level coordination are essential components of this collaborative effort. In this regard, the proactive behavior of AI-based systems and the communication thereof during collaboration is an important research topic concerning HAITs, e.g., see Horvitz et al. [8]. Proactivity can be defined as an AI's self-initiating, anticipatory behavior for contributing to effective and efficient task completion. It has been shown to be essential for human teamwork as it leads to higher job and team performance and is associated with leadership and innovation [3]. However, the design of adequate proactivity for AI-based systems to support humans is still an open question and a challenging topic. It is essential to study the impact of proactive system actions on the human-agent trust relationship and how to use information about an AI agent's perceived trustworthiness to model appropriate proactive dialog strategies for forming effective HAITs.


MoNET: Tackle State Momentum via Noise-Enhanced Training for Dialogue State Tracking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dialogue state tracking (DST) aims to convert the dialogue history into dialogue states which consist of slot-value pairs. As condensed structural information memorizing all history information, the dialogue state in the last turn is typically adopted as the input for predicting the current state by DST models. However, these models tend to keep the predicted slot values unchanged, which is defined as state momentum in this paper. Specifically, the models struggle to update slot values that need to be changed and correct wrongly predicted slot values in the last turn. To this end, we propose MoNET to tackle state momentum via noise-enhanced training. First, the previous state of each turn in the training data is noised via replacing some of its slot values. Then, the noised previous state is used as the input to learn to predict the current state, improving the model's ability to update and correct slot values. Furthermore, a contrastive context matching framework is designed to narrow the representation distance between a state and its corresponding noised variant, which reduces the impact of noised state and makes the model better understand the dialogue history. Experimental results on MultiWOZ datasets show that MoNET outperforms previous DST methods. Ablations and analysis verify the effectiveness of MoNET in alleviating state momentum and improving anti-noise ability.


The ODE Method for Asymptotic Statistics in Stochastic Approximation and Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The paper concerns the $d$-dimensional stochastic approximation recursion, $$ \theta_{n+1}= \theta_n + \alpha_{n + 1} f(\theta_n, \Phi_{n+1}) $$ in which $\Phi$ is a geometrically ergodic Markov chain on a general state space $\textsf{X}$ with stationary distribution $\pi$, and $f:\Re^d\times\textsf{X}\to\Re^d$. The main results are established under a version of the Donsker-Varadhan Lyapunov drift condition known as (DV3), and a stability condition for the mean flow with vector field $\bar{f}(\theta)=\textsf{E}[f(\theta,\Phi)]$, with $\Phi\sim\pi$. (i) $\{ \theta_n\}$ is convergent a.s. and in $L_4$ to the unique root $\theta^*$ of $\bar{f}(\theta)$. (ii) A functional CLT is established, as well as the usual one-dimensional CLT for the normalized error. (iii) The CLT holds for the normalized version, $z_n{=:} \sqrt{n} (\theta^{\text{PR}}_n -\theta^*)$, of the averaged parameters, $\theta^{\text{PR}}_n {=:} n^{-1} \sum_{k=1}^n\theta_k$, subject to standard assumptions on the step-size. Moreover, the normalized covariance converges, $$ \lim_{n \to \infty} n \textsf{E} [ {\widetilde{\theta}}^{\text{ PR}}_n ({\widetilde{\theta}}^{\text{ PR}}_n)^T ] = \Sigma_\theta^*,\;\;\;\textit{with $\widetilde{\theta}^{\text{ PR}}_n = \theta^{\text{ PR}}_n -\theta^*$,} $$ where $\Sigma_\theta^*$ is the minimal covariance of Polyak and Ruppert. (iv) An example is given where $f$ and $\bar{f}$ are linear in $\theta$, and the Markov chain $\Phi$ is geometrically ergodic but does not satisfy (DV3). While the algorithm is convergent, the second moment is unbounded: $ \textsf{E} [ \| \theta_n \|^2 ] \to \infty$ as $n\to\infty$.


FP-IRL: Fokker-Planck-based Inverse Reinforcement Learning -- A Physics-Constrained Approach to Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) is a compelling technique for revealing the rationale underlying the behavior of autonomous agents. IRL seeks to estimate the unknown reward function of a Markov decision process (MDP) from observed agent trajectories. However, IRL needs a transition function, and most algorithms assume it is known or can be estimated in advance from data. It therefore becomes even more challenging when such transition dynamics is not known a-priori, since it enters the estimation of the policy in addition to determining the system's evolution. When the dynamics of these agents in the state-action space is described by stochastic differential equations (SDE) in It^{o} calculus, these transitions can be inferred from the mean-field theory described by the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation. We conjecture there exists an isomorphism between the time-discrete FP and MDP that extends beyond the minimization of free energy (in FP) and maximization of the reward (in MDP). We identify specific manifestations of this isomorphism and use them to create a novel physics-aware IRL algorithm, FP-IRL, which can simultaneously infer the transition and reward functions using only observed trajectories. We employ variational system identification to infer the potential function in FP, which consequently allows the evaluation of reward, transition, and policy by leveraging the conjecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of FP-IRL by applying it to a synthetic benchmark and a biological problem of cancer cell dynamics, where the transition function is inaccessible.