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 Markov Models


Robust Markov Decision Processes without Model Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are receiving much attention in learning a robust policy which is less sensitive to environment changes. There are an increasing number of works analyzing sample-efficiency of robust MDPs. However, there are two major barriers to applying robust MDPs in practice. First, most works study robust MDPs in a model-based regime, where the transition probability needs to be estimated and requires a large amount of memories $\mathcal{O}(|\mathcal{S}|^2|\mathcal{A}|)$. Second, prior work typically assumes a strong oracle to obtain the optimal solution as an intermediate step to solve robust MDPs. However, in practice, such an oracle does not exist usually. To remove the oracle, we transform the original robust MDPs into an alternative form, which allows us to use stochastic gradient methods to solve the robust MDPs. Moreover, we prove the alternative form still plays a similar role as the original form. With this new formulation, we devise a sample-efficient algorithm to solve the robust MDPs in a model-free regime, which does not require an oracle and trades off a lower storage requirement $\mathcal{O}(|\mathcal{S}||\mathcal{A}|)$ with being able to generate samples from a generative model or Markovian chain. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings via numerical experiments, showing the efficiency with the alternative form of robust MDPs.


Hybrid ASR for Resource-Constrained Robots: HMM - Deep Learning Fusion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a novel hybrid Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system designed specifically for resource-constrained robots. The proposed approach combines Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) with deep learning models and leverages socket programming to distribute processing tasks effectively. In this architecture, the HMM-based processing takes place within the robot, while a separate PC handles the deep learning model. This synergy between HMMs and deep learning enhances speech recognition accuracy significantly. We conducted experiments across various robotic platforms, demonstrating real-time and precise speech recognition capabilities. Notably, the system exhibits adaptability to changing acoustic conditions and compatibility with low-power hardware, making it highly effective in environments with limited computational resources. This hybrid ASR paradigm opens up promising possibilities for seamless human-robot interaction. In conclusion, our research introduces a pioneering dimension to ASR techniques tailored for robotics. By employing socket programming to distribute processing tasks across distinct devices and strategically combining HMMs with deep learning models, our hybrid ASR system showcases its potential to enable robots to comprehend and respond to spoken language adeptly, even in environments with restricted computational resources. This paradigm sets a innovative course for enhancing human-robot interaction across a wide range of real-world scenarios.


Career Path Recommendations for Long-term Income Maximization: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study explores the potential of reinforcement learning algorithms to enhance career planning processes. Leveraging data from Randstad The Netherlands, the study simulates the Dutch job market and develops strategies to optimize employees' long-term income. By formulating career planning as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and utilizing machine learning algorithms such as Sarsa, Q-Learning, and A2C, we learn optimal policies that recommend career paths with high-income occupations and industries. The results demonstrate significant improvements in employees' income trajectories, with RL models, particularly Q-Learning and Sarsa, achieving an average increase of 5% compared to observed career paths. The study acknowledges limitations, including narrow job filtering, simplifications in the environment formulation, and assumptions regarding employment continuity and zero application costs. Future research can explore additional objectives beyond income optimization and address these limitations to further enhance career planning processes.


Multi-granulariy Time-based Transformer for Knowledge Tracing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we present a transformer architecture for predicting student performance on standardized tests. Specifically, we leverage students historical data, including their past test scores, study habits, and other relevant information, to create a personalized model for each student. We then use these models to predict their future performance on a given test. Applying this model to the RIIID dataset, we demonstrate that using multiple granularities for temporal features as the decoder input significantly improve model performance. Our results also show the effectiveness of our approach, with substantial improvements over the LightGBM method. Our work contributes to the growing field of AI in education, providing a scalable and accurate tool for predicting student outcomes.


Variance Reduction of Resampling for Sequential Monte Carlo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A resampling scheme provides a way to switch low-weight particles for sequential Monte Carlo with higher-weight particles representing the objective distribution. The less the variance of the weight distribution is, the more concentrated the effective particles are, and the quicker and more accurate it is to approximate the hidden Markov model, especially for the nonlinear case. We propose a repetitive deterministic domain with median ergodicity for resampling and have achieved the lowest variances compared to the other resampling methods. As the size of the deterministic domain $M\ll N$ (the size of population), given a feasible size of particles, our algorithm is faster than the state of the art, which is verified by theoretical deduction and experiments of a hidden Markov model in both the linear and non-linear cases.


Massively Scalable Inverse Reinforcement Learning in Google Maps

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Optimizing for humans' latent preferences remains a grand challenge in route recommendation. Prior research has provided increasingly general techniques based on inverse reinforcement learning (IRL), yet no approach has been successfully scaled to world-sized routing problems with hundreds of millions of states and demonstration trajectories. In this paper, we provide methods for scaling IRL using graph compression, spatial parallelization, and problem initialization based on dominant eigenvectors. We revisit classic algorithms and study them in a large-scale setting, and make the key observation that there exists a trade-off between the use of cheap, deterministic planners and expensive yet robust stochastic policies. We leverage this insight in Receding Horizon Inverse Planning (RHIP), a new generalization of classic IRL algorithms that provides fine-grained control over performance trade-offs via its planning horizon. Our contributions culminate in a policy that achieves a 16-24% improvement in global route quality, and to the best of our knowledge, represents the largest instance of IRL in a real-world setting to date. Benchmark results show critical benefits to more sustainable modes of transportation, where factors beyond journey time play a substantial role. We conclude by conducting an ablation study of key components, presenting negative results from alternative eigenvalue solvers, and identifying opportunities to further improve scalability via IRL-specific batching strategies.


Chebyshev Particles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides a feasible method for inferring Hidden Markov models, however, it is often computationally prohibitive, especially constrained by the curse of dimensionality, as the Monte Carlo sampler traverses randomly taking small steps within uncertain regions in the parameter space. We are the first to consider the posterior distribution of the objective as a mapping of samples in an infinite-dimensional Euclidean space where deterministic submanifolds are embedded and propose a new criterion by maximizing the weighted Riesz polarization quantity, to discretize rectifiable submanifolds via pairwise interaction. We study the characteristics of Chebyshev particles and embed them into sequential MCMC, a novel sampler with a high acceptance ratio that proposes only a few evaluations. We have achieved high performance from the experiments for parameter inference in a linear Gaussian state-space model with synthetic data and a non-linear stochastic volatility model with real-world data.


Convex Q Learning in a Stochastic Environment: Extended Version

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The paper introduces the first formulation of convex Q-learning for Markov decision processes with function approximation. The algorithms and theory rest on a relaxation of a dual of Manne's celebrated linear programming characterization of optimal control. The main contributions firstly concern properties of the relaxation, described as a deterministic convex program: we identify conditions for a bounded solution, and a significant relationship between the solution to the new convex program, and the solution to standard Q-learning. The second set of contributions concern algorithm design and analysis: (i) A direct model-free method for approximating the convex program for Q-learning shares properties with its ideal. In particular, a bounded solution is ensured subject to a simple property of the basis functions; (ii) The proposed algorithms are convergent and new techniques are introduced to obtain the rate of convergence in a mean-square sense; (iii) The approach can be generalized to a range of performance criteria, and it is found that variance can be reduced by considering ``relative'' dynamic programming equations; (iv) The theory is illustrated with an application to a classical inventory control problem.


Driver Profiling and Bayesian Workload Estimation Using Naturalistic Peripheral Detection Study Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Monitoring drivers' mental workload facilitates initiating and maintaining safe interactions with in-vehicle information systems, and thus delivers adaptive human machine interaction with reduced impact on the primary task of driving. In this paper, we tackle the problem of workload estimation from driving performance data. First, we present a novel on-road study for collecting subjective workload data via a modified peripheral detection task in naturalistic settings. Key environmental factors that induce a high mental workload are identified via video analysis, e.g. junctions and behaviour of vehicle in front. Second, a supervised learning framework using state-of-the-art time series classifiers (e.g. convolutional neural network and transform techniques) is introduced to profile drivers based on the average workload they experience during a journey. A Bayesian filtering approach is then proposed for sequentially estimating, in (near) real-time, the driver's instantaneous workload. This computationally efficient and flexible method can be easily personalised to a driver (e.g. incorporate their inferred average workload profile), adapted to driving/environmental contexts (e.g. road type) and extended with data streams from new sources. The efficacy of the presented profiling and instantaneous workload estimation approaches are demonstrated using the on-road study data, showing $F_{1}$ scores of up to 92% and 81%, respectively.


Online Control Barrier Functions for Decentralized Multi-Agent Navigation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Control barrier functions (CBFs) enable guaranteed safe multi-agent navigation in the continuous domain. The resulting navigation performance, however, is highly sensitive to the underlying hyperparameters. Traditional approaches consider fixed CBFs (where parameters are tuned apriori), and hence, typically do not perform well in cluttered and highly dynamic environments: conservative parameter values can lead to inefficient agent trajectories, or even failure to reach goal positions, whereas aggressive parameter values can lead to infeasible controls. To overcome these issues, in this paper, we propose online CBFs, whereby hyperparameters are tuned in real-time, as a function of what agents perceive in their immediate neighborhood. Since the explicit relationship between CBFs and navigation performance is hard to model, we leverage reinforcement learning to learn CBF-tuning policies in a model-free manner. Because we parameterize the policies with graph neural networks (GNNs), we are able to synthesize decentralized agent controllers that adjust parameter values locally, varying the degree of conservative and aggressive behaviors across agents. Simulations as well as real-world experiments show that (i) online CBFs are capable of solving navigation scenarios that are infeasible for fixed CBFs, and (ii), that they improve navigation performance by adapting to other agents and changes in the environment.