We consider the problem of recovering a latent graph where the observations at each node are \emph{aliased}, and transitions are stochastic. Observations are gathered by an agent traversing the graph. Aliasing means that multiple nodes emit the same observation, so the agent can not know in which node it is located. The agent needs to uncover the hidden topology as accurately as possible and in as few steps as possible. This is equivalent to efficient recovery of the transition probabilities of a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) in which the observation probabilities are known. An algorithm for efficiently exploring (and ultimately recovering) the latent graph is provided. Our approach is exponentially faster than naive exploration in a variety of challenging topologies with aliased observations while remaining competitive with existing baselines in the unaliased regime.

Thanks to their dependency structure, non-parametric Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are able to handle model-based clustering without specifying group distributions. The aim of this work is to study the Bayes risk of clustering when using HMMs and to propose associated clustering procedures. We first give a result linking the Bayes risk of classification and the Bayes risk of clustering, which we use to identify the key quantity determining the difficulty of the clustering task. We also give a proof of this result in the i.i.d. framework, which might be of independent interest. Then we study the excess risk of the plugin classifier. All these results are shown to remain valid in the online setting where observations are clustered sequentially. Simulations illustrate our findings.

A counterfactual distribution is the probability distribution of a random variable under a hypothetical scenario that differs from the observed reality. "What would have been the outcome for this individual if they had received a different treatment?" is an example of a counterfactual question. Here the personal data of the individual constitute the evidence that specifies the observed reality, and the interest lies in the distribution of the outcome under a hypothetical treatment. Counterfactual questions belong to the third and highest level in the causal hierarchy (Shpitser and Pearl, 2008) and are in general more difficult than associational (first level) or interventional (second level) questions. Algorithms for checking the identifiability of counterfactual queries from observational and experimental data have been developed (Shpitser and Pearl, 2007; Shpitser and Sherman, 2018; Correa et al., 2021) and implemented (Tikka, 2022).

The hierarchy of global and local planners is one of the most commonly utilized system designs in autonomous robot navigation. While the global planner generates a reference path from the current to goal locations based on the pre-built static map, the local planner produces a kinodynamic trajectory to follow the reference path while avoiding perceived obstacles. To account for unforeseen or dynamic obstacles not present on the pre-built map, ``when to replan'' the reference path is critical for the success of safe and efficient navigation. However, determining the ideal timing to execute replanning in such partially unknown environments still remains an open question. In this work, we first conduct an extensive simulation experiment to compare several common replanning strategies and confirm that effective strategies are highly dependent on the environment as well as the global and local planners. Based on this insight, we derive a new adaptive replanning strategy based on deep reinforcement learning, which can learn from experience to decide appropriate replanning timings in the given environment and planning setups. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed replanner can perform on par or even better than the current best-performing strategies in multiple situations regarding navigation robustness and efficiency.

Recently, learning-based approaches show promising results in navigation tasks. However, the poor generalization capability and the simulation-reality gap prevent a wide range of applications. We consider the problem of improving the generalization of mobile robots and achieving sim-to-real transfer for navigation skills. To that end, we propose a cross-modal fusion method and a knowledge transfer framework for better generalization. This is realized by a teacher-student distillation architecture. The teacher learns a discriminative representation and the near-perfect policy in an ideal environment. By imitating the behavior and representation of the teacher, the student is able to align the features from noisy multi-modal input and reduce the influence of variations on navigation policy. We evaluate our method in simulated and real-world environments. Experiments show that our method outperforms the baselines by a large margin and achieves robust navigation performance with varying working conditions.

In this work, we first formulate the problem of robotic water scooping using goal-conditioned reinforcement learning. This task is particularly challenging due to the complex dynamics of fluids and the need to achieve multi-modal goals. The policy is required to successfully reach both position goals and water amount goals, which leads to a large convoluted goal state space. To overcome these challenges, we introduce Goal Sampling Adaptation for Scooping (GOATS), a curriculum reinforcement learning method that can learn an effective and generalizable policy for robot scooping tasks. Specifically, we use a goal-factorized reward formulation and interpolate position goal distributions and amount goal distributions to create curriculum throughout the learning process. As a result, our proposed method can outperform the baselines in simulation and achieves 5.46% and 8.71% amount errors on bowl scooping and bucket scooping tasks, respectively, under 1000 variations of initial water states in the tank and a large goal state space. Besides being effective in simulation environments, our method can efficiently adapt to noisy real-robot water-scooping scenarios with diverse physical configurations and unseen settings, demonstrating superior efficacy and generalizability. The videos of this work are available on our project page: https://sites.google.com/view/goatscooping.

Prediction is a classic challenge in spatial statistics and the inclusion of spatial covariates can greatly improve predictive performance when incorporated into a model with latent spatial effects. It is desirable to develop flexible regression models that allow for nonlinearities and interactions in the covariate structure. Machine learning models have been suggested in the spatial context, allowing for spatial dependence in the residuals, but fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we investigate a novel combination of a Gaussian process spatial model and a Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) model. The computational burden of the approach is reduced by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) technique. We study the performance of the method via simulations and use the model to predict anthropometric responses, collected via household cluster samples in Kenya.

Offline multi-agent reinforcement learning is challenging due to the coupling effect of both distribution shift issue common in offline setting and the high dimension issue common in multi-agent setting, making the action out-of-distribution (OOD) and value overestimation phenomenon excessively severe. To mitigate this problem, we propose a novel multi-agent offline RL algorithm, named CounterFactual Conservative Q-Learning (CFCQL) to conduct conservative value estimation. Rather than regarding all the agents as a high dimensional single one and directly applying single agent methods to it, CFCQL calculates conservative regularization for each agent separately in a counterfactual way and then linearly combines them to realize an overall conservative value estimation. We prove that it still enjoys the underestimation property and the performance guarantee as those single agent conservative methods do, but the induced regularization and safe policy improvement bound are independent of the agent number, which is therefore theoretically superior to the direct treatment referred to above, especially when the agent number is large. We further conduct experiments on four environments including both discrete and continuous action settings on both existing and our man-made datasets, demonstrating that CFCQL outperforms existing methods on most datasets and even with a remarkable margin on some of them.

Being able to harness the power of large datasets for developing cooperative multi-agent controllers promises to unlock enormous value for real-world applications. Many important industrial systems are multi-agent in nature and are difficult to model using bespoke simulators. However, in industry, distributed processes can often be recorded during operation, and large quantities of demonstrative data stored. Offline multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) provides a promising paradigm for building effective decentralised controllers from such datasets. However, offline MARL is still in its infancy and therefore lacks standardised benchmark datasets and baselines typically found in more mature subfields of reinforcement learning (RL). These deficiencies make it difficult for the community to sensibly measure progress. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by releasing off-the-grid MARL (OG-MARL): a growing repository of high-quality datasets with baselines for cooperative offline MARL research. Our datasets provide settings that are characteristic of real-world systems, including complex environment dynamics, heterogeneous agents, non-stationarity, many agents, partial observability, suboptimality, sparse rewards and demonstrated coordination. For each setting, we provide a range of different dataset types (e.g. Good, Medium, Poor, and Replay) and profile the composition of experiences for each dataset. We hope that OG-MARL will serve the community as a reliable source of datasets and help drive progress, while also providing an accessible entry point for researchers new to the field.

Offline reinforcement learning is important in domains such as medicine, economics, and e-commerce where online experimentation is costly, dangerous or unethical, and where the true model is unknown. However, most methods assume all covariates used in the behavior policy's action decisions are observed. Though this assumption, sequential ignorability/unconfoundedness, likely does not hold in observational data, most of the data that accounts for selection into treatment may be observed, motivating sensitivity analysis. We study robust policy evaluation and policy optimization in the presence of sequentially-exogenous unobserved confounders under a sensitivity model. We propose and analyze orthogonalized robust fitted-Q-iteration that uses closed-form solutions of the robust Bellman operator to derive a loss minimization problem for the robust Q function, and adds a bias-correction to quantile estimation. Our algorithm enjoys the computational ease of fitted-Q-iteration and statistical improvements (reduced dependence on quantile estimation error) from orthogonalization. We provide sample complexity bounds, insights, and show effectiveness both in simulations and on real-world longitudinal healthcare data of treating sepsis. In particular, our model of sequential unobserved confounders yields an online Markov decision process, rather than partially observed Markov decision process: we illustrate how this can enable warm-starting optimistic reinforcement learning algorithms with valid robust bounds from observational data.