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 Markov Models


An Efficient Game-Theoretic Planner for Automated Lane Merging with Multi-Modal Behavior Understanding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we propose a novel behavior planner that combines game theory with search-based planning for automated lane merging. Specifically, inspired by human drivers, we model the interaction between vehicles as a gap selection process. To overcome the challenge of multi-modal behavior exhibited by the surrounding vehicles, we formulate the trajectory selection as a matrix game and compute an equilibrium. Next, we validate our proposed planner in the high-fidelity simulator CARLA and demonstrate its effectiveness in handling interactions in dense traffic scenarios.


Weighted Riesz Particles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are simulated by local exploration of complex statistical distributions, and while bypassing the cumbersome requirement of a specific analytical expression for the target, this stochastic exploration of an uncertain parameter space comes at the expense of a large number of samples, and this computational complexity increases with parameter dimensionality. Although at the exploration level, some methods are proposed to accelerate the convergence of the algorithm, such as tempering, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Rao-redwellization, and scalable methods for better performance, it cannot avoid the stochastic nature of this exploration. We consider the target distribution as a mapping where the infinite-dimensional Eulerian space of the parameters consists of a number of deterministic submanifolds and propose a generalized energy metric, termed weighted Riesz energy, where a number of points is generated through pairwise interactions, to discretize rectifiable submanifolds. We study the properties of the point, called Riesz particle, and embed it into sequential MCMC, and we find that there will be higher acceptance rates with fewer evaluations, we validate it through experimental comparative analysis from a linear Gaussian state-space model with synthetic data and a non-linear stochastic volatility model with real-world data.


Hessian-Aware Bayesian Optimization for Decision Making Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many approaches for optimizing decision making systems rely on gradient based methods requiring informative feedback from the environment. However, in the case where such feedback is sparse or uninformative, such approaches may result in poor performance. Derivative-free approaches such as Bayesian Optimization mitigate the dependency on the quality of gradient feedback, but are known to scale poorly in the high-dimension setting of complex decision making systems. This problem is exacerbated if the system requires interactions between several actors cooperating to accomplish a shared goal. To address the dimensionality challenge, we propose a compact multi-layered architecture modeling the dynamics of actor interactions through the concept of role. We introduce Hessian-aware Bayesian Optimization to efficiently optimize the multi-layered architecture parameterized by a large number of parameters, and give the first improved regret bound in additive high-dimensional Bayesian Optimization since Mutny & Krause (2018). Our approach shows strong empirical results under malformed or sparse reward.


Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Foundation models (FMs), or large models pretrained on massive data then adapted for downstream tasks, have emerged as an effective paradigm in modern machine learning. The backbone of these FMs are often sequence models, operating on arbitrary sequences of inputs from a wide variety of domains such as language, images, speech, audio, time series, and genomics (Brown et al. 2020; Dosovitskiy et al. 2020; Ismail Fawaz et al. 2019; Oord et al. 2016; Poli et al. 2023; Sutskever, Vinyals, and Quoc V Le 2014). While this concept is agnostic to a particular choice of model architecture, modern FMs are predominantly based on a single type of sequence model: the Transformer (Vaswani et al. 2017) and its core attention layer (Bahdanau, Cho, and Bengio 2015) The efficacy of self-attention is attributed to its ability to route information densely within a context window, allowing it to model complex data. However, this property brings fundamental drawbacks: an inability to model anything outside of a finite window, and quadratic scaling with respect to the window length. An enormous body of research has appeared on more efficient variants of attention to overcome these drawbacks (Tay, Dehghani, Bahri, et al. 2022), but often at the expense of the very properties that makes it effective. As of yet, none of these variants have been shown to be empirically effective at scale across domains. Recently, structured state space sequence models (SSMs) (Gu, Goel, and Ré 2022; Gu, Johnson, Goel, et al. 2021) have emerged as a promising class of architectures for sequence modeling. These models can be interpreted as a combination of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), with inspiration from classical state space models (Kalman 1960). This class of models can be computed very efficiently as either a recurrence or convolution, with linear or near-linear scaling in sequence length.


Safe Reinforcement Learning in Tensor Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper delves into the problem of safe reinforcement learning (RL) in a partially observable environment with the aim of achieving safe-reachability objectives. In traditional partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP), ensuring safety typically involves estimating the belief in latent states. However, accurately estimating an optimal Bayesian filter in POMDP to infer latent states from observations in a continuous state space poses a significant challenge, largely due to the intractable likelihood. To tackle this issue, we propose a stochastic model-based approach that guarantees RL safety almost surely in the face of unknown system dynamics and partial observation environments. We leveraged the Predictive State Representation (PSR) and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) to represent future multi-step observations analytically, and the results in this context are provable. Furthermore, we derived essential operators from the kernel Bayes' rule, enabling the recursive estimation of future observations using various operators. Under the assumption of \textit{undercompleness}, a polynomial sample complexity is established for the RL algorithm for the infinite size of observation and action spaces, ensuring an $\epsilon-$suboptimal safe policy guarantee.


A Causality-Aware Pattern Mining Scheme for Group Activity Recognition in a Pervasive Sensor Space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human activity recognition (HAR) is a key challenge in pervasive computing and its solutions have been presented based on various disciplines. Specifically, for HAR in a smart space without privacy and accessibility issues, data streams generated by deployed pervasive sensors are leveraged. In this paper, we focus on a group activity by which a group of users perform a collaborative task without user identification and propose an efficient group activity recognition scheme which extracts causality patterns from pervasive sensor event sequences generated by a group of users to support as good recognition accuracy as the state-of-the-art graphical model. To filter out irrelevant noise events from a given data stream, a set of rules is leveraged to highlight causally related events. Then, a pattern-tree algorithm extracts frequent causal patterns by means of a growing tree structure. Based on the extracted patterns, a weighted sum-based pattern matching algorithm computes the likelihoods of stored group activities to the given test event sequence by means of matched event pattern counts for group activity recognition. We evaluate the proposed scheme using the data collected from our testbed and CASAS datasets where users perform their tasks on a daily basis and validate its effectiveness in a real environment. Experiment results show that the proposed scheme performs higher recognition accuracy and with a small amount of runtime overhead than the existing schemes.


On the Identifiability of Switching Dynamical Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In the realm of interpretability and out-of-distribution generalisation, the identifiability of latent variable models has emerged as a captivating field of inquiry. In this work, we delve into the identifiability of Switching Dynamical Systems, taking an initial stride toward extending identifiability analysis to sequential latent variable models. We first prove the identifiability of Markov Switching Models, which commonly serve as the prior distribution for the continuous latent variables in Switching Dynamical Systems. We present identification conditions for first-order Markov dependency structures, whose transition distribution is parametrised via non-linear Gaussians. We then establish the identifiability of the latent variables and non-linear mappings in Switching Dynamical Systems up to affine transformations, by leveraging identifiability analysis techniques from identifiable deep latent variable models. We finally develop estimation algorithms for identifiable Switching Dynamical Systems. Throughout empirical studies, we demonstrate the practicality of identifiable Switching Dynamical Systems for segmenting high-dimensional time series such as videos, and showcase the use of identifiable Markov Switching Models for regime-dependent causal discovery in climate data.


Timewarp: Transferable Acceleration of Molecular Dynamics by Learning Time-Coarsened Dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a widely used technique to simulate molecular systems, most commonly at the all-atom resolution where equations of motion are integrated with timesteps on the order of femtoseconds ($1\textrm{fs}=10^{-15}\textrm{s}$). MD is often used to compute equilibrium properties, which requires sampling from an equilibrium distribution such as the Boltzmann distribution. However, many important processes, such as binding and folding, occur over timescales of milliseconds or beyond, and cannot be efficiently sampled with conventional MD. Furthermore, new MD simulations need to be performed for each molecular system studied. We present Timewarp, an enhanced sampling method which uses a normalising flow as a proposal distribution in a Markov chain Monte Carlo method targeting the Boltzmann distribution. The flow is trained offline on MD trajectories and learns to make large steps in time, simulating the molecular dynamics of $10^{5} - 10^{6}\:\textrm{fs}$. Crucially, Timewarp is transferable between molecular systems: once trained, we show that it generalises to unseen small peptides (2-4 amino acids) at all-atom resolution, exploring their metastable states and providing wall-clock acceleration of sampling compared to standard MD. Our method constitutes an important step towards general, transferable algorithms for accelerating MD.


ESM-NBR: fast and accurate nucleic acid-binding residue prediction via protein language model feature representation and multi-task learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Protein-nucleic acid interactions play a very important role in a variety of biological activities. Accurate identification of nucleic acid-binding residues is a critical step in understanding the interaction mechanisms. Although many computationally based methods have been developed to predict nucleic acid-binding residues, challenges remain. In this study, a fast and accurate sequence-based method, called ESM-NBR, is proposed. In ESM-NBR, we first use the large protein language model ESM2 to extract discriminative biological properties feature representation from protein primary sequences; then, a multi-task deep learning model composed of stacked bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) networks is employed to explore common and private information of DNA- and RNA-binding residues with ESM2 feature as input. Experimental results on benchmark data sets demonstrate that the prediction performance of ESM2 feature representation comprehensively outperforms evolutionary information-based hidden Markov model (HMM) features. Meanwhile, the ESM-NBR obtains the MCC values for DNA-binding residues prediction of 0.427 and 0.391 on two independent test sets, which are 18.61 and 10.45% higher than those of the second-best methods, respectively. Moreover, by completely discarding the time-cost multiple sequence alignment process, the prediction speed of ESM-NBR far exceeds that of existing methods (5.52s for a protein sequence of length 500, which is about 16 times faster than the second-fastest method). A user-friendly standalone package and the data of ESM-NBR are freely available for academic use at: https://github.com/wwzll123/ESM-NBR.


Learning active tactile perception through belief-space control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robots operating in an open world will encounter novel objects with unknown physical properties, such as mass, friction, or size. These robots will need to sense these properties through interaction prior to performing downstream tasks with the objects. We propose a method that autonomously learns tactile exploration policies by developing a generative world model that is leveraged to 1) estimate the object's physical parameters using a differentiable Bayesian filtering algorithm and 2) develop an exploration policy using an information-gathering model predictive controller. We evaluate our method on three simulated tasks where the goal is to estimate a desired object property (mass, height or toppling height) through physical interaction. We find that our method is able to discover policies that efficiently gather information about the desired property in an intuitive manner. Finally, we validate our method on a real robot system for the height estimation task, where our method is able to successfully learn and execute an information-gathering policy from scratch.