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 Markov Models


Convergence Acceleration of Markov Chain Monte Carlo-based Gradient Descent by Deep Unfolding

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The proposed solver is based on the Ohzeki method that combines Markov-chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) and gradient descent, and its step sizes are trained by minimizing a loss function. In the training process, we propose a sampling-based gradient estimation that substitutes auto-differentiation with a variance estimation, thereby circumventing the failure of back propagation due to the non-differentiability of MCMC. The numerical results for a few COPs demonstrated that the proposed solver significantly accelerated the convergence speed compared with the original Ohzeki method. Combinatorial optimization problems (COPs) comprising discrete variables are considered hard to solve exactly in polynomial time, which relates to the well-known P vs. NP problem. Along with deterministic approximation algorithms, samplers such as Markovchain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) have been applied to COPs. However, the convergence time for obtaining reasonable approximate solutions is long.


From Self-Attention to Markov Models: Unveiling the Dynamics of Generative Transformers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern language models rely on the transformer architecture and attention mechanism to perform language understanding and text generation. In this work, we study learning a 1-layer self-attention model from a set of prompts and associated output data sampled from the model. We first establish a precise mapping between the self-attention mechanism and Markov models: Inputting a prompt to the model samples the output token according to a context-conditioned Markov chain (CCMC) which weights the transition matrix of a base Markov chain. Additionally, incorporating positional encoding results in position-dependent scaling of the transition probabilities. Building on this formalism, we develop identifiability/coverage conditions for the prompt distribution that guarantee consistent estimation and establish sample complexity guarantees under IID samples. Finally, we study the problem of learning from a single output trajectory generated from an initial prompt. We characterize an intriguing winner-takes-all phenomenon where the generative process implemented by self-attention collapses into sampling a limited subset of tokens due to its non-mixing nature. This provides a mathematical explanation to the tendency of modern LLMs to generate repetitive text. In summary, the equivalence to CCMC provides a simple but powerful framework to study self-attention and its properties.


Formal Synthesis of Controllers for Safety-Critical Autonomous Systems: Developments and Challenges

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, formal methods have been extensively used in the design of autonomous systems. By employing mathematically rigorous techniques, formal methods can provide fully automated reasoning processes with provable safety guarantees for complex dynamic systems with intricate interactions between continuous dynamics and discrete logics. This paper provides a comprehensive review of formal controller synthesis techniques for safety-critical autonomous systems. Specifically, we categorize the formal control synthesis problem based on diverse system models, encompassing deterministic, non-deterministic, and stochastic, and various formal safety-critical specifications involving logic, real-time, and real-valued domains. The review covers fundamental formal control synthesis techniques, including abstraction-based approaches and abstraction-free methods. We explore the integration of data-driven synthesis approaches in formal control synthesis. Furthermore, we review formal techniques tailored for multi-agent systems (MAS), with a specific focus on various approaches to address the scalability challenges in large-scale systems. Finally, we discuss some recent trends and highlight research challenges in this area.


Learning to Model Diverse Driving Behaviors in Highly Interactive Autonomous Driving Scenarios with Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous vehicles trained through Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) have shown impressive results in many driving scenarios. However, the performance of these trained policies can be impacted when faced with diverse driving styles and personalities, particularly in highly interactive situations. This is because conventional MARL algorithms usually operate under the assumption of fully cooperative behavior among all agents and focus on maximizing team rewards during training. To address this issue, we introduce the Personality Modeling Network (PeMN), which includes a cooperation value function and personality parameters to model the varied interactions in high-interactive scenarios. The PeMN also enables the training of a background traffic flow with diverse behaviors, thereby improving the performance and generalization of the ego vehicle. Our extensive experimental studies, which incorporate different personality parameters in high-interactive driving scenarios, demonstrate that the personality parameters effectively model diverse driving styles and that policies trained with PeMN demonstrate better generalization compared to traditional MARL methods.


IT Intrusion Detection Using Statistical Learning and Testbed Measurements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study automated intrusion detection in an IT infrastructure, specifically the problem of identifying the start of an attack, the type of attack, and the sequence of actions an attacker takes, based on continuous measurements from the infrastructure. We apply statistical learning methods, including Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Random Forest Classifier (RFC) to map sequences of observations to sequences of predicted attack actions. In contrast to most related research, we have abundant data to train the models and evaluate their predictive power. The data comes from traces we generate on an in-house testbed where we run attacks against an emulated IT infrastructure. Central to our work is a machine-learning pipeline that maps measurements from a high-dimensional observation space to a space of low dimensionality or to a small set of observation symbols. Investigating intrusions in offline as well as online scenarios, we find that both HMM and LSTM can be effective in predicting attack start time, attack type, and attack actions. If sufficient training data is available, LSTM achieves higher prediction accuracy than HMM. HMM, on the other hand, requires less computational resources and less training data for effective prediction. Also, we find that the methods we study benefit from data produced by traditional intrusion detection systems like SNORT.


A Neuro-Symbolic Approach to Multi-Agent RL for Interpretability and Probabilistic Decision Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is well-suited for runtime decision-making in optimizing the performance of systems where multiple agents coexist and compete for shared resources. However, applying common deep learning-based MARL solutions to real-world problems suffers from issues of interpretability, sample efficiency, partial observability, etc. To address these challenges, we present an event-driven formulation, where decision-making is handled by distributed co-operative MARL agents using neuro-symbolic methods. The recently introduced neuro-symbolic Logical Neural Networks (LNN) framework serves as a function approximator for the RL, to train a rules-based policy that is both logical and interpretable by construction. To enable decision-making under uncertainty and partial observability, we developed a novel probabilistic neuro-symbolic framework, Probabilistic Logical Neural Networks (PLNN), which combines the capabilities of logical reasoning with probabilistic graphical models. In PLNN, the upward/downward inference strategy, inherited from LNN, is coupled with belief bounds by setting the activation function for the logical operator associated with each neural network node to a probability-respecting generalization of the Fr\'echet inequalities. These PLNN nodes form the unifying element that combines probabilistic logic and Bayes Nets, permitting inference for variables with unobserved states. We demonstrate our contributions by addressing key MARL challenges for power sharing in a system-on-chip application.


Learning in Mean Field Games: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Non-cooperative and cooperative games with a very large number of players have many applications but remain generally intractable when the number of players increases. Introduced by Lasry and Lions, and Huang, Caines and Malham\'e, Mean Field Games (MFGs) rely on a mean-field approximation to allow the number of players to grow to infinity. Traditional methods for solving these games generally rely on solving partial or stochastic differential equations with a full knowledge of the model. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has appeared promising to solve complex problems at scale. The combination of RL and MFGs is promising to solve games at a very large scale both in terms of population size and environment complexity. In this survey, we review the quickly growing recent literature on RL methods to learn equilibria and social optima in MFGs. We first identify the most common settings (static, stationary, and evolutive) of MFGs. We then present a general framework for classical iterative methods (based on best-response computation or policy evaluation) to solve MFGs in an exact way. Building on these algorithms and the connection with Markov Decision Processes, we explain how RL can be used to learn MFG solutions in a model-free way. Last, we present numerical illustrations on a benchmark problem, and conclude with some perspectives.


Improved Indoor Localization with Machine Learning Techniques for IoT applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of the Internet of Things (IoT) and mobile internet applications has spurred interest in location-based services (LBS) for commercial, military, and social applications. While the global positioning system (GPS) dominates outdoor localization, its efficacy wanes indoors due to signal challenges. Indoor localization systems leverage wireless technologies like Wi-Fi, ZigBee, Bluetooth, UWB, selecting based on context. Received signal strength indicator (RSSI) technology, known for its accuracy and simplicity, is widely adopted. This study employs machine learning algorithms in three phases: supervised regressors, supervised classifiers, and ensemble methods for RSSI-based indoor localization. Additionally, it introduces a weighted least squares technique and pseudo-linear solution approach to address non-linear RSSI measurement equations by approximating them with linear equations. An experimental testbed, utilizing diverse wireless technologies and anchor nodes, is designed for data collection, employing IoT cloud architectures. Pre-processing involves investigating filters for data refinement before algorithm training. The study employs machine learning models like linear regression, polynomial regression, support vector regression, random forest regression, and decision tree regressor across various wireless technologies. These models estimate the geographical coordinates of a moving target node, and their performance is evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, root mean square errors, precision, recall, sensitivity, coefficient of determinant, and the f1-score. The experiment's outcomes provide insights into the effectiveness of different supervised machine learning techniques in terms of localization accuracy and robustness in indoor environments.


Easy as ABCs: Unifying Boltzmann Q-Learning and Counterfactual Regret Minimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose ABCs (Adaptive Branching through Child stationarity), a best-of-both-worlds algorithm combining Boltzmann Q-learning (BQL), a classic reinforcement learning algorithm for single-agent domains, and counterfactual regret minimization (CFR), a central algorithm for learning in multi-agent domains. ABCs adaptively chooses what fraction of the environment to explore each iteration by measuring the stationarity of the environment's reward and transition dynamics. In Markov decision processes, ABCs converges to the optimal policy with at most an O(A) factor slowdown compared to BQL, where A is the number of actions in the environment. In two-player zero-sum games, ABCs is guaranteed to converge to a Nash equilibrium (assuming access to a perfect oracle for detecting stationarity), while BQL has no such guarantees. Empirically, ABCs demonstrates strong performance when benchmarked across environments drawn from the OpenSpiel game library and OpenAI Gym and exceeds all prior methods in environments which are neither fully stationary nor fully nonstationary.


The Evolution of Statistical Induction Heads: In-Context Learning Markov Chains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit a remarkable ability to perform in-context learning (ICL): learning from patterns in their input context (Brown et al., 2020; Dong et al., 2022). The ability of LLMs to adaptively learn from context is profoundly useful, yet the underlying mechanisms of this emergent capability are not fully understood. In an effort to better understand ICL, some recent works propose to study ICL in controlled synthetic settings--in particular, training transformers on mathematically defined tasks which require learning from the input context. For example, a recent line of works studies the ability of transformers to perform ICL of standard supervised learning problems such as linear regression (Garg et al., 2022; Akyürek et al., 2022; Li et al., 2023; Wu et al., 2023). Studying these well-understood synthetic learning tasks enables fine-grained control over the data distribution, allows for comparisons with established supervised learning algorithms, and facilitates the examination of the in-context "algorithm" implemented by the network. That said, these supervised settings are reflective specifically of few-shot learning, which is only a special case of the more general phenomenon of networks incorporating patterns from their context into their predictions. A few recent works (Bietti et al., 2023; Xie et al., 2022) go beyond the case of cleanly separated in-context inputs and outputs, studying in-context learning on distributions based on discrete stochastic processes. Work done while visiting Harvard University.