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 Markov Models


Scalable Bayesian inference for the generalized linear mixed model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is a popular statistical approach for handling correlated data, and is used extensively in applications areas where big data is common, including biomedical data settings. The focus of this paper is scalable statistical inference for the GLMM, where we define statistical inference as: (i) estimation of population parameters, and (ii) evaluation of scientific hypotheses in the presence of uncertainty. Artificial intelligence (AI) learning algorithms excel at scalable statistical estimation, but rarely include uncertainty quantification. In contrast, Bayesian inference provides full statistical inference, since uncertainty quantification results automatically from the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference algorithms, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), become computationally intractable in big data settings. In this paper, we introduce a statistical inference algorithm at the intersection of AI and Bayesian inference, that leverages the scalability of modern AI algorithms with guaranteed uncertainty quantification that accompanies Bayesian inference. Our algorithm is an extension of stochastic gradient MCMC with novel contributions that address the treatment of correlated data (i.e., intractable marginal likelihood) and proper posterior variance estimation. Through theoretical and empirical results we establish our algorithm's statistical inference properties, and apply the method in a large electronic health records database.


COLA: Cross-city Mobility Transformer for Human Trajectory Simulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human trajectory data produced by daily mobile devices has proven its usefulness in various substantial fields such as urban planning and epidemic prevention. In terms of the individual privacy concern, human trajectory simulation has attracted increasing attention from researchers, targeting at offering numerous realistic mobility data for downstream tasks. Nevertheless, the prevalent issue of data scarcity undoubtedly degrades the reliability of existing deep learning models. In this paper, we are motivated to explore the intriguing problem of mobility transfer across cities, grasping the universal patterns of human trajectories to augment the powerful Transformer with external mobility data. There are two crucial challenges arising in the knowledge transfer across cities: 1) how to transfer the Transformer to adapt for domain heterogeneity; 2) how to calibrate the Transformer to adapt for subtly different long-tail frequency distributions of locations. To address these challenges, we have tailored a Cross-city mObiLity trAnsformer (COLA) with a dedicated model-agnostic transfer framework by effectively transferring cross-city knowledge for human trajectory simulation. Firstly, COLA divides the Transformer into the private modules for city-specific characteristics and the shared modules for city-universal mobility patterns. Secondly, COLA leverages a lightweight yet effective post-hoc adjustment strategy for trajectory simulation, without disturbing the complex bi-level optimization of model-agnostic knowledge transfer. Extensive experiments of COLA compared to state-of-the-art single-city baselines and our implemented cross-city baselines have demonstrated its superiority and effectiveness. The code is available at https://github.com/Star607/Cross-city-Mobility-Transformer.


PPS-QMIX: Periodically Parameter Sharing for Accelerating Convergence of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Training for multi-agent reinforcement learning(MARL) is a time-consuming process caused by distribution shift of each agent. One drawback is that strategy of each agent in MARL is independent but actually in cooperation. Thus, a vertical issue in multi-agent reinforcement learning is how to efficiently accelerate training process. To address this problem, current research has leveraged a centralized function(CF) across multiple agents to learn contribution of the team reward for each agent. However, CF based methods introduce joint error from other agents in estimation of value network. In so doing, inspired by federated learning, we propose three simple novel approaches called Average Periodically Parameter Sharing(A-PPS), Reward-Scalability Periodically Parameter Sharing(RS-PPS) and Partial Personalized Periodically Parameter Sharing(PP-PPS) mechanism to accelerate training of MARL. Agents share Q-value network periodically during the training process. Agents which has same identity adapt collected reward as scalability and update partial neural network during period to share different parameters. We apply our approaches in classical MARL method QMIX and evaluate our approaches on various tasks in StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge(SMAC) environment. Performance of numerical experiments yield enormous enhancement, with an average improvement of 10\%-30\%, and enable to win tasks that QMIX cannot. Our code can be downloaded from https://github.com/ColaZhang22/PPS-QMIX


A Scoping Review of Energy-Efficient Driving Behaviors and Applied State-of-the-Art AI Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The transportation sector remains a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. The understanding of energy-efficient driving behaviors and utilization of energy-efficient driving strategies are essential to reduce vehicles' fuel consumption. However, there is no comprehensive investigation into energy-efficient driving behaviors and strategies. Furthermore, many state-of-the-art AI models have been applied for the analysis of eco-friendly driving styles, but no overview is available. To fill the gap, this paper conducts a thorough literature review on ecological driving behaviors and styles and analyzes the driving factors influencing energy consumption and state-of-the-art methodologies. With a thorough scoping review process, the methodological and related data are compared. The results show that the factors that impact driving behaviors can be summarized into eleven features including speed, acceleration, deceleration, pedal, and so on. This paper finds that supervised/unsupervised learning algorithms and reinforcement learning frameworks have been popularly used to model the vehicle's energy consumption with multi-dimensional data. Furthermore, the literature shows that the driving data are collected from either simulators or real-world experiments, and the real-world data are mainly stored and transmitted by meters, controller area networks, onboard data services, smartphones, and additional sensors installed in the vehicle. Based on driving behavior factors, driver characteristics, and safety rules, this paper recommends nine energy-efficient driving styles including four guidelines for the drivers' selection and adjustment of the vehicle parameters, three recommendations for the energy-efficient driving styles in different driving scenarios, and two subjective suggestions for different types of drivers and employers.


Inf2Guard: An Information-Theoretic Framework for Learning Privacy-Preserving Representations against Inference Attacks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) is vulnerable to inference (e.g., membership inference, property inference, and data reconstruction) attacks that aim to infer the private information of training data or dataset. Existing defenses are only designed for one specific type of attack and sacrifice significant utility or are soon broken by adaptive attacks. We address these limitations by proposing an information-theoretic defense framework, called Inf2Guard, against the three major types of inference attacks. Our framework, inspired by the success of representation learning, posits that learning shared representations not only saves time/costs but also benefits numerous downstream tasks. Generally, Inf2Guard involves two mutual information objectives, for privacy protection and utility preservation, respectively. Inf2Guard exhibits many merits: it facilitates the design of customized objectives against the specific inference attack; it provides a general defense framework which can treat certain existing defenses as special cases; and importantly, it aids in deriving theoretical results, e.g., inherent utility-privacy tradeoff and guaranteed privacy leakage. Extensive evaluations validate the effectiveness of Inf2Guard for learning privacy-preserving representations against inference attacks and demonstrate the superiority over the baselines.


Learning One Representation to Optimize All Rewards

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce the forward-backward (FB) representation of the dynamics of a reward-free Markov decision process. It provides explicit near-optimal policies for any reward specified a posteriori. During an unsupervised phase, we use rewardfree interactions with the environment to learn two representations via off-the-shelf deep learning methods and temporal difference (TD) learning. In the test phase, a reward representation is estimated either from reward observations or an explicit reward description (e.g., a target state). The optimal policy for that reward is directly obtained from these representations, with no planning.


Beyond Value-Function Gaps: Improved Instance-Dependent Regret Bounds for Episodic Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We provide improved gap-dependent regret bounds for reinforcement learning in finite episodic Markov decision processes. Compared to prior work, our bounds depend on alternative definitions of gaps. These definitions are based on the insight that, in order to achieve a favorable regret, an algorithm does not need to learn how to behave optimally in states that are not reached by an optimal policy. We prove tighter upper regret bounds for optimistic algorithms and accompany them with new information-theoretic lower bounds for a large class of MDPs. Our results show that optimistic algorithms can not achieve the information-theoretic lower bounds even in deterministic MDPs unless there is a unique optimal policy.


Learning One Representation to Optimize All Rewards

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce the forward-backward (FB) representation of the dynamics of a reward-free Markov decision process. It provides explicit near-optimal policies for any reward specified a posteriori. During an unsupervised phase, we use rewardfree interactions with the environment to learn two representations via off-the-shelf deep learning methods and temporal difference (TD) learning. In the test phase, a reward representation is estimated either from reward observations or an explicit reward description (e.g., a target state). The optimal policy for that reward is directly obtained from these representations, with no planning.


Beyond Value-Function Gaps: Improved Instance-Dependent Regret Bounds for Episodic Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We provide improved gap-dependent regret bounds for reinforcement learning in finite episodic Markov decision processes. Compared to prior work, our bounds depend on alternative definitions of gaps. These definitions are based on the insight that, in order to achieve a favorable regret, an algorithm does not need to learn how to behave optimally in states that are not reached by an optimal policy. We prove tighter upper regret bounds for optimistic algorithms and accompany them with new information-theoretic lower bounds for a large class of MDPs. Our results show that optimistic algorithms can not achieve the information-theoretic lower bounds even in deterministic MDPs unless there is a unique optimal policy.


On the stochastics of human and artificial creativity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

What constitutes human creativity, and is it possible for computers to exhibit genuine creativity? We argue that achieving human-level intelligence in computers, or so-called Artificial General Intelligence, necessitates attaining also human-level creativity. We contribute to this discussion by developing a statistical representation of human creativity, incorporating prior insights from stochastic theory, psychology, philosophy, neuroscience, and chaos theory. This highlights the stochastic nature of the human creative process, which includes both a bias guided, random proposal step, and an evaluation step depending on a flexible or transformable bias structure. The acquired representation of human creativity is subsequently used to assess the creativity levels of various contemporary AI systems. Our analysis includes modern AI algorithms such as reinforcement learning, diffusion models, and large language models, addressing to what extent they measure up to human level creativity. We conclude that these technologies currently lack the capability for autonomous creative action at a human level.