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 Markov Models


Causal Deepsets for Off-policy Evaluation under Spatial or Spatio-temporal Interferences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is widely applied in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and e-commerce to evaluate the efficacy of novel products or policies from offline datasets. This paper introduces a causal deepset framework that relaxes several key structural assumptions, primarily the mean-field assumption, prevalent in existing OPE methodologies that handle spatio-temporal interference. These traditional assumptions frequently prove inadequate in real-world settings, thereby restricting the capability of current OPE methods to effectively address complex interference effects. In response, we advocate for the implementation of the permutation invariance (PI) assumption. This innovative approach enables the data-driven, adaptive learning of the mean-field function, offering a more flexible estimation method beyond conventional averaging. Furthermore, we present novel algorithms that incorporate the PI assumption into OPE and thoroughly examine their theoretical foundations. Our numerical analyses demonstrate that this novel approach yields significantly more precise estimations than existing baseline algorithms, thereby substantially improving the practical applicability and effectiveness of OPE methodologies.


Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning for Resilience Optimization in 5G RAN

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Resilience is defined as the ability of a network to resist, adapt, and quickly recover from disruptions, and to continue to maintain an acceptable level of services from users' perspective. With the advent of future radio networks, including advanced 5G and upcoming 6G, critical services become integral to future networks, requiring uninterrupted service delivery for end users. Unfortunately, with the growing network complexity, user mobility and diversity, it becomes challenging to scale current resilience management techniques that rely on local optimizations to large dense network deployments. This paper aims to address this problem by globally optimizing the resilience of a dense multi-cell network based on multi-agent deep reinforcement learning. Specifically, our proposed solution can dynamically tilt cell antennas and reconfigure transmit power to mitigate outages and increase both coverage and service availability. A multi-objective optimization problem is formulated to simultaneously satisfy resiliency constraints while maximizing the service quality in the network area in order to minimize the impact of outages on neighbouring cells. Extensive simulations then demonstrate that with our proposed solution, the average service availability in terms of user throughput can be increased by up to 50-60% on average, while reaching a coverage availability of 99% in best cases.


On the Effect of Purely Synthetic Training Data for Different Automatic Speech Recognition Architectures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work we evaluate the utility of synthetic data for training automatic speech recognition (ASR). We use the ASR training data to train a text-to-speech (TTS) system similar to FastSpeech-2. With this TTS we reproduce the original training data, training ASR systems solely on synthetic data. For ASR, we use three different architectures, attention-based encoder-decoder, hybrid deep neural network hidden Markov model and a Gaussian mixture hidden Markov model, showing the different sensitivity of the models to synthetic data generation. In order to extend previous work, we present a number of ablation studies on the effectiveness of synthetic vs. real training data for ASR. In particular we focus on how the gap between training on synthetic and real data changes by varying the speaker embedding or by scaling the model size. For the latter we show that the TTS models generalize well, even when training scores indicate overfitting.


Transformers on Markov Data: Constant Depth Suffices

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Attention-based transformers have been remarkably successful at modeling generative processes across various domains and modalities. In this paper, we study the behavior of transformers on data drawn from \kth Markov processes, where the conditional distribution of the next symbol in a sequence depends on the previous $k$ symbols observed. We observe a surprising phenomenon empirically which contradicts previous findings: when trained for sufficiently long, a transformer with a fixed depth and $1$ head per layer is able to achieve low test loss on sequences drawn from \kth Markov sources, even as $k$ grows. Furthermore, this low test loss is achieved by the transformer's ability to represent and learn the in-context conditional empirical distribution. On the theoretical side, our main result is that a transformer with a single head and three layers can represent the in-context conditional empirical distribution for \kth Markov sources, concurring with our empirical observations. Along the way, we prove that \textit{attention-only} transformers with $O(\log_2(k))$ layers can represent the in-context conditional empirical distribution by composing induction heads to track the previous $k$ symbols in the sequence. These results provide more insight into our current understanding of the mechanisms by which transformers learn to capture context, by understanding their behavior on Markov sources.


A Simulation Benchmark for Autonomous Racing with Large-Scale Human Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the availability of international prize-money competitions, scaled vehicles, and simulation environments, research on autonomous racing and the control of sports cars operating close to the limit of handling has been limited by the high costs of vehicle acquisition and management, as well as the limited physics accuracy of open-source simulators. In this paper, we propose a racing simulation platform based on the simulator Assetto Corsa to test, validate, and benchmark autonomous driving algorithms, including reinforcement learning (RL) and classical Model Predictive Control (MPC), in realistic and challenging scenarios. Our contributions include the development of this simulation platform, several state-of-the-art algorithms tailored to the racing environment, and a comprehensive dataset collected from human drivers. Additionally, we evaluate algorithms in the offline RL setting.


Functional Acceleration for Policy Mirror Descent

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We apply functional acceleration to the Policy Mirror Descent (PMD) general family of algorithms, which cover a wide range of novel and fundamental methods in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Leveraging duality, we propose a momentum-based PMD update. By taking the functional route, our approach is independent of the policy parametrization and applicable to large-scale optimization, covering previous applications of momentum at the level of policy parameters as a special case. We theoretically analyze several properties of this approach and complement with a numerical ablation study, which serves to illustrate the policy optimization dynamics on the value polytope, relative to different algorithmic design choices in this space. We further characterize numerically several features of the problem setting relevant for functional acceleration, and lastly, we investigate the impact of approximation on their learning mechanics.


MOMAland: A Set of Benchmarks for Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many challenging tasks such as managing traffic systems, electricity grids, or supply chains involve complex decision-making processes that must balance multiple conflicting objectives and coordinate the actions of various independent decision-makers (DMs). One perspective for formalising and addressing such tasks is multi-objective multi-agent reinforcement learning (MOMARL). MOMARL broadens reinforcement learning (RL) to problems with multiple agents each needing to consider multiple objectives in their learning process. In reinforcement learning research, benchmarks are crucial in facilitating progress, evaluation, and reproducibility. The significance of benchmarks is underscored by the existence of numerous benchmark frameworks developed for various RL paradigms, including single-agent RL (e.g., Gymnasium), multi-agent RL (e.g., PettingZoo), and single-agent multi-objective RL (e.g., MO-Gymnasium). To support the advancement of the MOMARL field, we introduce MOMAland, the first collection of standardised environments for multi-objective multi-agent reinforcement learning. MOMAland addresses the need for comprehensive benchmarking in this emerging field, offering over 10 diverse environments that vary in the number of agents, state representations, reward structures, and utility considerations. To provide strong baselines for future research, MOMAland also includes algorithms capable of learning policies in such settings.


Toward an Integrated Decision Making Framework for Optimized Stroke Diagnosis with DSA and Treatment under Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study addresses the challenge of stroke diagnosis and treatment under uncertainty, a critical issue given the rapid progression and severe consequences of stroke conditions such as aneurysms, arteriovenous malformations (AVM), and occlusions. Current diagnostic methods, including Digital Subtraction Angiography (DSA), face limitations due to high costs and its invasive nature. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel approach using a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework. Our model integrates advanced diagnostic tools and treatment approaches with a decision-making algorithm that accounts for the inherent uncertainties in stroke diagnosis. Our approach combines noisy observations from CT scans, Siriraj scores, and DSA reports to inform the subsequent treatment options. We utilize the online solver DESPOT, which employs tree-search methods and particle filters, to simulate potential future scenarios and guide our strategies. The results indicate that our POMDP framework balances diagnostic and treatment objectives, striking a tradeoff between the need for precise stroke identification via invasive procedures like DSA and the constraints of limited healthcare resources that necessitate more cost-effective strategies, such as in-hospital or at-home observation, by relying only relying on simulation rollouts and not imposing any prior knowledge. Our study offers a significant contribution by presenting a systematic framework that optimally integrates diagnostic and treatment processes for stroke and accounting for various uncertainties, thereby improving care and outcomes in stroke management.


Promises and Pitfalls of Generative Masked Language Modeling: Theoretical Framework and Practical Guidelines

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autoregressive language models are the currently dominant paradigm for text generation, but they have some fundamental limitations that cannot be remedied by scale-for example inherently sequential and unidirectional generation. While alternate classes of models have been explored, we have limited mathematical understanding of their fundamental power and limitations. In this paper we focus on Generative Masked Language Models (GMLMs), a non-autoregressive paradigm in which we train a model to fit conditional probabilities of the data distribution via masking, which are subsequently used as inputs to a Markov Chain to draw samples from the model, These models empirically strike a promising speed-quality trade-off as each step can be typically parallelized by decoding the entire sequence in parallel. We develop a mathematical framework for analyzing and improving such models which sheds light on questions of sample complexity and inference speed and quality. Empirically, we adapt the T5 model for iteratively-refined parallel decoding, achieving 2-3x speedup in machine translation with minimal sacrifice in quality compared with autoregressive models. We run careful ablation experiments to give recommendations on key design choices, and make fine-grained observations on the common error modes in connection with our theory. Our mathematical analyses and empirical observations characterize both potentials and limitations of this approach, and can be applied to future works on improving understanding and performance of GMLMs. Our codes are released at https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/padir


On shallow planning under partial observability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Formulating a real-world problem under the Reinforcement Learning framework involves non-trivial design choices, such as selecting a discount factor for the learning objective (discounted cumulative rewards), which articulates the planning horizon of the agent. This work investigates the impact of the discount factor on the biasvariance trade-off given structural parameters of the underlying Markov Decision Process. Our results support the idea that a shorter planning horizon might be beneficial, especially under partial observability.