Learning a transition model via Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) followed by planning inside the learned model is perhaps the most standard and simplest Model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework. In this work, we show that such a simple Model-based RL scheme, when equipped with optimistic and pessimistic planning procedures, achieves strong regret and sample complexity bounds in online and offline RL settings. Particularly, we demonstrate that under the conditions where the trajectory-wise reward is normalized between zero and one and the transition is time-homogenous, it achieves horizon-free and second-order bounds. Horizon-free means that our bounds have no polynomial dependence on the horizon of the Markov Decision Process. A second-order bound is a type of instance-dependent bound that scales with respect to the variances of the returns of the policies which can be small when the system is nearly deterministic and (or) the optimal policy has small values. We highlight that our algorithms are simple, fairly standard, and indeed have been extensively studied in the RL literature: they learn a model via MLE, build a version space around the MLE solution, and perform optimistic or pessimistic planning depending on whether operating in the online or offline mode. These algorithms do not rely on additional specialized algorithmic designs such as learning variances and performing variance-weighted learning and thus can leverage rich function approximations that are significantly beyond linear or tabular structures. The simplicity of the algorithms also implies that our horizon-free and second-order regret analysis is actually standard and mainly follows the general framework of optimism/pessimism in the face of uncertainty.

Robotics can help address the growing worker shortage challenge of the manufacturing industry. As such, machine tending is a task collaborative robots can tackle that can also highly boost productivity. Nevertheless, existing robotics systems deployed in that sector rely on a fixed single-arm setup, whereas mobile robots can provide more flexibility and scalability. In this work, we introduce a multi-agent multi-machine tending learning framework by mobile robots based on Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) techniques with the design of a suitable observation and reward. Moreover, an attention-based encoding mechanism is developed and integrated into Multi-agent Proximal Policy Optimization (MAPPO) algorithm to boost its performance for machine tending scenarios. Our model (AB-MAPPO) outperformed MAPPO in this new challenging scenario in terms of task success, safety, and resources utilization. Furthermore, we provided an extensive ablation study to support our various design decisions.

LLM-based autonomous agents often fail to execute complex web tasks that require dynamic interaction due to the inherent uncertainty and complexity of these environments. Existing LLM-based web agents typically rely on rigid, expert-designed policies specific to certain states and actions, which lack the flexibility and generalizability needed to adapt to unseen tasks. In contrast, humans excel by exploring unknowns, continuously adapting strategies, and resolving ambiguities through exploration. To emulate human-like adaptability, web agents need strategic exploration and complex decision-making. Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is well-suited for this, but classical MCTS struggles with vast action spaces, unpredictable state transitions, and incomplete information in web tasks. In light of this, we develop WebPilot, a multi-agent system with a dual optimization strategy that improves MCTS to better handle complex web environments. Specifically, the Global Optimization phase involves generating a high-level plan by breaking down tasks into manageable subtasks and continuously refining this plan, thereby focusing the search process and mitigating the challenges posed by vast action spaces in classical MCTS. Subsequently, the Local Optimization phase executes each subtask using a tailored MCTS designed for complex environments, effectively addressing uncertainties and managing incomplete information. Experimental results on WebArena and MiniWoB++ demonstrate the effectiveness of WebPilot. Notably, on WebArena, WebPilot achieves SOTA performance with GPT-4, achieving a 93% relative increase in success rate over the concurrent tree search-based method. WebPilot marks a significant advancement in general autonomous agent capabilities, paving the way for more advanced and reliable decision-making in practical environments.

Reasoning about real-life events is a unifying challenge in AI and NLP that has profound utility in a variety of domains, while fallacy in high-stake applications could be catastrophic. Able to work with diverse text in these domains, large language models (LLMs) have proven capable of answering questions and solving problems. However, I show that end-to-end LLMs still systematically fail to reason about complex events, and they lack interpretability due to their black-box nature. To address these issues, I propose three general approaches to use LLMs in conjunction with a structured representation of events. The first is a language-based representation involving relations of sub-events that can be learned by LLMs via fine-tuning. The second is a semi-symbolic representation involving states of entities that can be predicted and leveraged by LLMs via few-shot prompting. The third is a fully symbolic representation that can be predicted by LLMs trained with structured data and be executed by symbolic solvers. On a suite of event reasoning tasks spanning common-sense inference and planning, I show that each approach greatly outperforms end-to-end LLMs with more interpretability. These results suggest manners of synergy between LLMs and structured representations for event reasoning and beyond.

Datasets are essential for any machine learning task. Automatic Music Transcription (AMT) is one such task, where considerable amount of data is required depending on the way the solution is achieved. Considering the fact that a music dataset, complete with audio and its time-aligned transcriptions would require the effort of people with musical experience, it could be stated that the task becomes even more challenging. Musical experience is required in playing the musical instrument(s), and in annotating and verifying the transcriptions. We propose a method that would help in streamlining this process, making the task of obtaining a dataset from a particular instrument easy and efficient. We use predefined guitar exercises and hidden Markov model(HMM) based forced viterbi alignment to accomplish this. The guitar exercises are designed to be simple. Since the note sequence are already defined, HMM based forced viterbi alignment provides time-aligned transcriptions of these audio files. The onsets of the transcriptions are manually verified and the labels are accurate up to 10ms, averaging at 5ms. The contributions of the proposed work is two fold, i) a well streamlined and efficient method for generating datasets for any instrument, especially monophonic and, ii) an acoustic plectrum guitar dataset containing wave files and transcriptions in the form of label files. This method will aid as a preliminary step towards building concrete datasets for building AMT systems for different instruments.

Incorporating inductive biases is a promising approach for tackling challenging robot learning domains with sample-efficient solutions. This paper identifies partially observable domains where symmetries can be a useful inductive bias for efficient learning. Specifically, by encoding the equivariance regarding specific group symmetries into the neural networks, our actor-critic reinforcement learning agents can reuse solutions in the past for related scenarios. Consequently, our equivariant agents outperform non-equivariant approaches significantly in terms of sample efficiency and final performance, demonstrated through experiments on a range of robotic tasks in simulation and real hardware.

Centralized Training for Decentralized Execution, where agents are trained offline in a centralized fashion and execute online in a decentralized manner, has become a popular approach in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). In particular, it has become popular to develop actor-critic methods that train decentralized actors with a centralized critic where the centralized critic is allowed access global information of the entire system, including the true system state. Such centralized critics are possible given offline information and are not used for online execution. While these methods perform well in a number of domains and have become a de facto standard in MARL, using a centralized critic in this context has yet to be sufficiently analyzed theoretically or empirically. In this paper, we therefore formally analyze centralized and decentralized critic approaches, and analyze the effect of using state-based critics in partially observable environments. We derive theories contrary to the common intuition: critic centralization is not strictly beneficial, and using state values can be harmful. We further prove that, in particular, state-based critics can introduce unexpected bias and variance compared to history-based critics. Finally, we demonstrate how the theory applies in practice by comparing different forms of critics on a wide range of common multi-agent benchmarks. The experiments show practical issues such as the difficulty of representation learning with partial observability, which highlights why the theoretical problems are often overlooked in the literature.

Decentralized stochastic control problems are intrinsically difficult to study because of the inapplicability of standard tools from centralized control such as dynamic programming and the resulting computational complexity. In this paper, we address some of these challenges for decentralized stochastic control with Borel spaces under three different but tightly related information structures under a unified theme: the one-step delayed information sharing pattern, the K-step periodic information sharing pattern, and the completely decentralized information structure where no sharing of information occurs. We will show that the one-step delayed and K-step periodic problems can be reduced to a centralized MDP, generalizing prior results which considered finite, linear, or static models, by addressing several measurability questions. The separated nature of policies under both information structures is then established. We then provide sufficient conditions for the transition kernels of both centralized reductions to be weak-Feller, which facilitates rigorous approximation and learning theoretic results. We will then show that for the completely decentralized control problem finite memory local policies are near optimal under a joint conditional mixing condition. This is achieved by obtaining a bound for finite memory policies which goes to zero as memory size increases. We will also provide a performance bound for the K-periodic problem, which results from replacing the full common information by a finite sliding window of information. The latter will depend on the condition of predictor stability in expected total variation, which we will establish. We finally show that under the periodic information sharing pattern, a quantized Q-learning algorithm converges asymptotically towards a near optimal solution. Each of the above, to our knowledge, is a new contribution to the literature.

In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. During the COVID period (2019-2022), this dual-model approach achieved a 83% return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77. It incorporates two risk models to enhance risk management, showing efficiency during volatile periods. The methodology was implemented on the QuantConnect platform, which was chosen for its robust framework and experimental reproducibility. The system, which predicts future price movements, includes a three-year warm-up to ensure proper algorithm function. It targets highly liquid, large-cap energy stocks to ensure stable and predictable performance while also considering broker payments. The dual-model alpha system utilizes log returns to select the optimal state based on the historical performance. It combines state predictions with neural network outputs, which are based on historical data, to generate trading signals. This study examined the architecture of the trading system, data pre-processing, training, and performance. The full code and backtesting data are available under the QuantConnect terms.

Understanding people's social interactions in complex real-world scenarios often relies on intricate mental reasoning. To truly understand how and why people interact with one another, we must infer the underlying mental states that give rise to the social interactions, i.e., Theory of Mind reasoning in multi-agent interactions. Additionally, social interactions are often multi-modal -- we can watch people's actions, hear their conversations, and/or read about their past behaviors. For AI systems to successfully and safely interact with people in real-world environments, they also need to understand people's mental states as well as their inferences about each other's mental states based on multi-modal information about their interactions. For this, we introduce MuMA-ToM, a Multi-modal Multi-Agent Theory of Mind benchmark. MuMA-ToM is the first multi-modal Theory of Mind benchmark that evaluates mental reasoning in embodied multi-agent interactions. In MuMA-ToM, we provide video and text descriptions of people's multi-modal behavior in realistic household environments. Based on the context, we then ask questions about people's goals, beliefs, and beliefs about others' goals. We validated MuMA-ToM in a human experiment and provided a human baseline. We also proposed a novel multi-modal, multi-agent ToM model, LIMP (Language model-based Inverse Multi-agent Planning). Our experimental results show that LIMP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, including large multi-modal models (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini-1.5 Pro) and a recent multi-modal ToM model, BIP-ALM.