This paper introduces the Inside-Out Nested Particle Filter (IO-NPF), a novel, fully recursive, algorithm for amortized sequential Bayesian experimental design in the non-exchangeable setting. We frame policy optimization as maximum likelihood estimation in a non-Markovian state-space model, achieving (at most) $\mathcal{O}(T^2)$ computational complexity in the number of experiments. We provide theoretical convergence guarantees and introduce a backward sampling algorithm to reduce trajectory degeneracy. IO-NPF offers a practical, extensible, and provably consistent approach to sequential Bayesian experimental design, demonstrating improved efficiency over existing methods.

The development of autonomous vehicles has shown great potential to enhance the efficiency and safety of transportation systems. However, the decision-making issue in complex human-machine mixed traffic scenarios, such as unsignalized intersections, remains a challenge for autonomous vehicles. While reinforcement learning (RL) has been used to solve complex decision-making problems, existing RL methods still have limitations in dealing with cooperative decision-making of multiple connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), ensuring safety during exploration, and simulating realistic human driver behaviors. In this paper, a novel and efficient algorithm, Multi-Agent Game-prior Attention Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (MA-GA-DDPG), is proposed to address these limitations. Our proposed algorithm formulates the decision-making problem of CAVs at unsignalized intersections as a decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning problem and incorporates an attention mechanism to capture interaction dependencies between ego CAV and other agents. The attention weights between the ego vehicle and other agents are then used to screen interaction objects and obtain prior hierarchical game relations, based on which a safety inspector module is designed to improve the traffic safety. Furthermore, both simulation and hardware-in-the-loop experiments were conducted, demonstrating that our method outperforms other baseline approaches in terms of driving safety, efficiency, and comfort.

Probability estimation of tree topologies is one of the fundamental tasks in phylogenetic inference. The recently proposed subsplit Bayesian networks (SBNs) provide a powerful probabilistic graphical model for tree topology probability estimation by properly leveraging the hierarchical structure of phylogenetic trees. However, the expectation maximization (EM) method currently used for learning SBN parameters does not scale up to large data sets. In this paper, we introduce several computationally efficient methods for training SBNs and show that variance reduction could be the key for better performance. Furthermore, we also introduce the variance reduction technique to improve the optimization of SBN parameters for variational Bayesian phylogenetic inference (VBPI). Extensive synthetic and real data experiments demonstrate that our methods outperform previous baseline methods on the tasks of tree topology probability estimation as well as Bayesian phylogenetic inference using SBNs.

An important task in high-dimensional statistics is learning the parameters or dependency structure of an undirected graphical model, or Markov random field (MRF). Much of the prior work on this problem assumes access to i.i.d. samples from the MRF distribution and state-of-the-art algorithms succeed using $n^{\Theta(k)}$ runtime, where $n$ is the dimension and $k$ is the order of the interactions. However, well-known reductions from the sparse parity with noise problem imply that given i.i.d. samples from a sparse, order-$k$ MRF, any learning algorithm likely requires $n^{\Omega(k)}$ time, impeding the potential for significant computational improvements. In this work, we demonstrate that these fundamental barriers for learning MRFs can surprisingly be completely circumvented when learning from natural, dynamical samples. We show that in bounded-degree MRFs, the dependency structure and parameters can be recovered using a trajectory of Glauber dynamics of length $O(n \log n)$ with runtime $O(n^2 \log n)$. The implicit constants depend only on the degree and non-degeneracy parameters of the model, but not the dimension $n$. In particular, learning MRFs from dynamics is $\textit{provably computationally easier}$ than learning from i.i.d. samples under standard hardness assumptions.

The goal of alpha factor mining is to discover indicative signals of investment opportunities from the historical financial market data of assets. Deep learning based alpha factor mining methods have shown to be powerful, which, however, lack of the interpretability, making them unacceptable in the risk-sensitive real markets. Alpha factors in formulaic forms are more interpretable and therefore favored by market participants, while the search space is complex and powerful explorative methods are urged. Recently, a promising framework is proposed for generating formulaic alpha factors using deep reinforcement learning, and quickly gained research focuses from both academia and industries. This paper first argues that the originally employed policy training method, i.e., Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), faces several important issues in the context of alpha factors mining, making it ineffective to explore the search space of the formula. Herein, a novel reinforcement learning based on the well-known REINFORCE algorithm is proposed. Given that the underlying state transition function adheres to the Dirac distribution, the Markov Decision Process within this framework exhibit minimal environmental variability, making REINFORCE algorithm more appropriate than PPO. A new dedicated baseline is designed to theoretically reduce the commonly suffered high variance of REINFORCE. Moreover, the information ratio is introduced as a reward shaping mechanism to encourage the generation of steady alpha factors that can better adapt to changes in market volatility. Experimental evaluations on various real assets data show that the proposed algorithm can increase the correlation with asset returns by 3.83%, and a stronger ability to obtain excess returns compared to the latest alpha factors mining methods, which meets the theoretical results well.

Information sharing is critical in time-sensitive and realistic multi-robot exploration, especially for smaller robotic teams in large-scale environments where connectivity may be sparse and intermittent. Existing methods often overlook such communication constraints by assuming unrealistic global connectivity. Other works account for communication constraints (by maintaining close proximity or line of sight during information exchange), but are often inefficient. For instance, preplanned rendezvous approaches typically involve unnecessary detours resulting from poorly timed rendezvous, while pursuit-based approaches often result in short-sighted decisions due to their greedy nature. We present IR2, a deep reinforcement learning approach to information sharing for multi-robot exploration. Leveraging attention-based neural networks trained via reinforcement and curriculum learning, IR2 allows robots to effectively reason about the longer-term trade-offs between disconnecting for solo exploration and reconnecting for information sharing. In addition, we propose a hierarchical graph formulation to maintain a sparse yet informative graph, enabling our approach to scale to large-scale environments. We present simulation results in three large-scale Gazebo environments, which show that our approach yields 6.6-34.1% shorter exploration paths and significantly improved mapped area consistency among robots when compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Our simulation training and testing code is available at https://github.com/marmotlab/IR2.

Probabilistic relational models provide a well-established formalism to combine first-order logic and probabilistic models, thereby allowing to represent relationships between objects in a relational domain. At the same time, the field of artificial intelligence requires increasingly large amounts of relational training data for various machine learning tasks. Collecting real-world data, however, is often challenging due to privacy concerns, data protection regulations, high costs, and so on. To mitigate these challenges, the generation of synthetic data is a promising approach. In this paper, we solve the problem of generating synthetic relational data via probabilistic relational models. In particular, we propose a fully-fledged pipeline to go from relational database to probabilistic relational model, which can then be used to sample new synthetic relational data points from its underlying probability distribution. As part of our proposed pipeline, we introduce a learning algorithm to construct a probabilistic relational model from a given relational database.

We study the Whittle index learning algorithm for restless multi-armed bandits. We consider index learning algorithm with Q-learning. We first present Q-learning algorithm with exploration policies -- epsilon-greedy, softmax, epsilon-softmax with constant stepsizes. We extend the study of Q-learning to index learning for single-armed restless bandit. The algorithm of index learning is two-timescale variant of stochastic approximation, on slower timescale we update index learning scheme and on faster timescale we update Q-learning assuming fixed index value. In Q-learning updates are in asynchronous manner. We study constant stepsizes two timescale stochastic approximation algorithm. We provide analysis of two-timescale stochastic approximation for index learning with constant stepsizes. Further, we present study on index learning with deep Q-network (DQN) learning and linear function approximation with state-aggregation method. We describe the performance of our algorithms using numerical examples. We have shown that index learning with Q learning, DQN and function approximations learns the Whittle index.

Non-recurrent conditions caused by incidents are different from recurrent conditions that follow periodic patterns. Existing traffic speed prediction studies are incident-agnostic and use one single model to learn all possible patterns from these drastically diverse conditions. This study proposes a novel Mixture of Experts (MoE) model to improve traffic speed prediction under two separate conditions, recurrent and non-recurrent (i.e., with and without incidents). The MoE leverages separate recurrent and non-recurrent expert models (Temporal Fusion Transformers) to capture the distinct patterns of each traffic condition. Additionally, we propose a training pipeline for non-recurrent models to remedy the limited data issues. To train our model, multi-source datasets, including traffic speed, incident reports, and weather data, are integrated and processed to be informative features. Evaluations on a real road network demonstrate that the MoE achieves lower errors compared to other benchmark algorithms. The model predictions are interpreted in terms of temporal dependencies and variable importance in each condition separately to shed light on the differences between recurrent and non-recurrent conditions.

Language models are exhibiting increasing capability in knowledge utilization and reasoning. However, when applied as agents in embodied environments, they often suffer from misalignment between their intrinsic knowledge and environmental knowledge, leading to infeasible actions. Traditional environment alignment methods, such as supervised learning on expert trajectories and reinforcement learning, face limitations in covering environmental knowledge and achieving efficient convergence, respectively. Inspired by human learning, we propose Exploration-based Error Correction Learning (E2CL), a novel framework that leverages exploration-induced errors and environmental feedback to enhance environment alignment for LM-based agents. E2CL incorporates teacher-guided and teacher-free exploration to gather environmental feedback and correct erroneous actions. The agent learns to provide feedback and self-correct, thereby enhancing its adaptability to target environments. Evaluations in the Virtualhome environment demonstrate that E2CL-trained agents outperform those trained by baseline methods and exhibit superior self-correction capabilities.