Probability estimation of tree topologies is one of the fundamental tasks in phylogenetic inference. The recently proposed subsplit Bayesian networks (SBNs) provide a powerful probabilistic graphical model for tree topology probability estimation by properly leveraging the hierarchical structure of phylogenetic trees. However, the expectation maximization (EM) method currently used for learning SBN parameters does not scale up to large data sets. In this paper, we introduce several computationally efficient methods for training SBNs and show that variance reduction could be the key for better performance. Furthermore, we also introduce the variance reduction technique to improve the optimization of SBN parameters for variational Bayesian phylogenetic inference (VBPI). Extensive synthetic and real data experiments demonstrate that our methods outperform previous baseline methods on the tasks of tree topology probability estimation as well as Bayesian phylogenetic inference using SBNs.

An important task in high-dimensional statistics is learning the parameters or dependency structure of an undirected graphical model, or Markov random field (MRF). Much of the prior work on this problem assumes access to i.i.d. samples from the MRF distribution and state-of-the-art algorithms succeed using $n^{\Theta(k)}$ runtime, where $n$ is the dimension and $k$ is the order of the interactions. However, well-known reductions from the sparse parity with noise problem imply that given i.i.d. samples from a sparse, order-$k$ MRF, any learning algorithm likely requires $n^{\Omega(k)}$ time, impeding the potential for significant computational improvements. In this work, we demonstrate that these fundamental barriers for learning MRFs can surprisingly be completely circumvented when learning from natural, dynamical samples. We show that in bounded-degree MRFs, the dependency structure and parameters can be recovered using a trajectory of Glauber dynamics of length $O(n \log n)$ with runtime $O(n^2 \log n)$. The implicit constants depend only on the degree and non-degeneracy parameters of the model, but not the dimension $n$. In particular, learning MRFs from dynamics is $\textit{provably computationally easier}$ than learning from i.i.d. samples under standard hardness assumptions.

The goal of alpha factor mining is to discover indicative signals of investment opportunities from the historical financial market data of assets. Deep learning based alpha factor mining methods have shown to be powerful, which, however, lack of the interpretability, making them unacceptable in the risk-sensitive real markets. Alpha factors in formulaic forms are more interpretable and therefore favored by market participants, while the search space is complex and powerful explorative methods are urged. Recently, a promising framework is proposed for generating formulaic alpha factors using deep reinforcement learning, and quickly gained research focuses from both academia and industries. This paper first argues that the originally employed policy training method, i.e., Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), faces several important issues in the context of alpha factors mining, making it ineffective to explore the search space of the formula. Herein, a novel reinforcement learning based on the well-known REINFORCE algorithm is proposed. Given that the underlying state transition function adheres to the Dirac distribution, the Markov Decision Process within this framework exhibit minimal environmental variability, making REINFORCE algorithm more appropriate than PPO. A new dedicated baseline is designed to theoretically reduce the commonly suffered high variance of REINFORCE. Moreover, the information ratio is introduced as a reward shaping mechanism to encourage the generation of steady alpha factors that can better adapt to changes in market volatility. Experimental evaluations on various real assets data show that the proposed algorithm can increase the correlation with asset returns by 3.83%, and a stronger ability to obtain excess returns compared to the latest alpha factors mining methods, which meets the theoretical results well.

Information sharing is critical in time-sensitive and realistic multi-robot exploration, especially for smaller robotic teams in large-scale environments where connectivity may be sparse and intermittent. Existing methods often overlook such communication constraints by assuming unrealistic global connectivity. Other works account for communication constraints (by maintaining close proximity or line of sight during information exchange), but are often inefficient. For instance, preplanned rendezvous approaches typically involve unnecessary detours resulting from poorly timed rendezvous, while pursuit-based approaches often result in short-sighted decisions due to their greedy nature. We present IR2, a deep reinforcement learning approach to information sharing for multi-robot exploration. Leveraging attention-based neural networks trained via reinforcement and curriculum learning, IR2 allows robots to effectively reason about the longer-term trade-offs between disconnecting for solo exploration and reconnecting for information sharing. In addition, we propose a hierarchical graph formulation to maintain a sparse yet informative graph, enabling our approach to scale to large-scale environments. We present simulation results in three large-scale Gazebo environments, which show that our approach yields 6.6-34.1% shorter exploration paths and significantly improved mapped area consistency among robots when compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Our simulation training and testing code is available at https://github.com/marmotlab/IR2.

Probabilistic relational models provide a well-established formalism to combine first-order logic and probabilistic models, thereby allowing to represent relationships between objects in a relational domain. At the same time, the field of artificial intelligence requires increasingly large amounts of relational training data for various machine learning tasks. Collecting real-world data, however, is often challenging due to privacy concerns, data protection regulations, high costs, and so on. To mitigate these challenges, the generation of synthetic data is a promising approach. In this paper, we solve the problem of generating synthetic relational data via probabilistic relational models. In particular, we propose a fully-fledged pipeline to go from relational database to probabilistic relational model, which can then be used to sample new synthetic relational data points from its underlying probability distribution. As part of our proposed pipeline, we introduce a learning algorithm to construct a probabilistic relational model from a given relational database.

We study the Whittle index learning algorithm for restless multi-armed bandits. We consider index learning algorithm with Q-learning. We first present Q-learning algorithm with exploration policies -- epsilon-greedy, softmax, epsilon-softmax with constant stepsizes. We extend the study of Q-learning to index learning for single-armed restless bandit. The algorithm of index learning is two-timescale variant of stochastic approximation, on slower timescale we update index learning scheme and on faster timescale we update Q-learning assuming fixed index value. In Q-learning updates are in asynchronous manner. We study constant stepsizes two timescale stochastic approximation algorithm. We provide analysis of two-timescale stochastic approximation for index learning with constant stepsizes. Further, we present study on index learning with deep Q-network (DQN) learning and linear function approximation with state-aggregation method. We describe the performance of our algorithms using numerical examples. We have shown that index learning with Q learning, DQN and function approximations learns the Whittle index.

Non-recurrent conditions caused by incidents are different from recurrent conditions that follow periodic patterns. Existing traffic speed prediction studies are incident-agnostic and use one single model to learn all possible patterns from these drastically diverse conditions. This study proposes a novel Mixture of Experts (MoE) model to improve traffic speed prediction under two separate conditions, recurrent and non-recurrent (i.e., with and without incidents). The MoE leverages separate recurrent and non-recurrent expert models (Temporal Fusion Transformers) to capture the distinct patterns of each traffic condition. Additionally, we propose a training pipeline for non-recurrent models to remedy the limited data issues. To train our model, multi-source datasets, including traffic speed, incident reports, and weather data, are integrated and processed to be informative features. Evaluations on a real road network demonstrate that the MoE achieves lower errors compared to other benchmark algorithms. The model predictions are interpreted in terms of temporal dependencies and variable importance in each condition separately to shed light on the differences between recurrent and non-recurrent conditions.

Language models are exhibiting increasing capability in knowledge utilization and reasoning. However, when applied as agents in embodied environments, they often suffer from misalignment between their intrinsic knowledge and environmental knowledge, leading to infeasible actions. Traditional environment alignment methods, such as supervised learning on expert trajectories and reinforcement learning, face limitations in covering environmental knowledge and achieving efficient convergence, respectively. Inspired by human learning, we propose Exploration-based Error Correction Learning (E2CL), a novel framework that leverages exploration-induced errors and environmental feedback to enhance environment alignment for LM-based agents. E2CL incorporates teacher-guided and teacher-free exploration to gather environmental feedback and correct erroneous actions. The agent learns to provide feedback and self-correct, thereby enhancing its adaptability to target environments. Evaluations in the Virtualhome environment demonstrate that E2CL-trained agents outperform those trained by baseline methods and exhibit superior self-correction capabilities.

This book introduces the mathematical foundations and techniques that lead to the development and analysis of many of the algorithms that are used in machine learning. It starts with an introductory chapter that describes notation used throughout the book and serve at a reminder of basic concepts in calculus, linear algebra and probability and also introduces some measure theoretic terminology, which can be used as a reading guide for the sections that use these tools. The introductory chapters also provide background material on matrix analysis and optimization. The latter chapter provides theoretical support to many algorithms that are used in the book, including stochastic gradient descent, proximal methods, etc. After discussing basic concepts for statistical prediction, the book includes an introduction to reproducing kernel theory and Hilbert space techniques, which are used in many places, before addressing the description of various algorithms for supervised statistical learning, including linear methods, support vector machines, decision trees, boosting, or neural networks. The subject then switches to generative methods, starting with a chapter that presents sampling methods and an introduction to the theory of Markov chains. The following chapter describe the theory of graphical models, an introduction to variational methods for models with latent variables, and to deep-learning based generative models. The next chapters focus on unsupervised learning methods, for clustering, factor analysis and manifold learning. The final chapter of the book is theory-oriented and discusses concentration inequalities and generalization bounds.

Cycling has gained global popularity for its health benefits and positive urban impacts. To effectively promote cycling, early studies have extensively investigated the relationship between cycling behaviors and environmental factors, especially cyclists' preferences when making route decisions. However, these studies often struggle to comprehensively describe detailed cycling procedures at a large scale due to data limitations, and they tend to overlook the complex nature of cyclists' preferences. To address these issues, we propose a novel framework aimed to quantify and interpret cyclists' complicated street visual preferences from cycling records by leveraging maximum entropy deep inverse reinforcement learning (MEDIRL) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). Implemented in Bantian Sub-district, Shenzhen, we adapt MEDIRL model for efficient estimation of cycling reward function by integrating dockless-bike-sharing (DBS) trajectory and street view images (SVIs), which serves as a representation of cyclists' preferences for street visual environments during routing. In addition, we demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of MEDIRL in discovering cyclists' street visual preferences. Further analysis reveals the nonlinear and interactive effects of street visual elements on cyclists' preferences, offering a holistic perspective on streetscape design. Our proposed framework advances the understanding of individual cycling behaviors and provides actionable insights for urban planners to design bicycle-friendly streetscapes that prioritize cyclists' preferences.