Markov Models
A Comprehensive Survey on Multi-Agent Cooperative Decision-Making: Scenarios, Approaches, Challenges and Perspectives
Jin, Weiqiang, Du, Hongyang, Zhao, Biao, Tian, Xingwu, Shi, Bohang, Yang, Guang
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, intelligent decision-making techniques have gradually surpassed human levels in various human-machine competitions, especially in complex multi-agent cooperative task scenarios. Multi-agent cooperative decision-making involves multiple agents working together to complete established tasks and achieve specific objectives. These techniques are widely applicable in real-world scenarios such as autonomous driving, drone navigation, disaster rescue, and simulated military confrontations. This paper begins with a comprehensive survey of the leading simulation environments and platforms used for multi-agent cooperative decision-making. Specifically, we provide an in-depth analysis for these simulation environments from various perspectives, including task formats, reward allocation, and the underlying technologies employed. Subsequently, we provide a comprehensive overview of the mainstream intelligent decision-making approaches, algorithms and models for multi-agent systems (MAS). Theseapproaches can be broadly categorized into five types: rule-based (primarily fuzzy logic), game theory-based, evolutionary algorithms-based, deep multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL)-based, and large language models(LLMs)reasoning-based. Given the significant advantages of MARL andLLMs-baseddecision-making methods over the traditional rule, game theory, and evolutionary algorithms, this paper focuses on these multi-agent methods utilizing MARL and LLMs-based techniques. We provide an in-depth discussion of these approaches, highlighting their methodology taxonomies, advantages, and drawbacks. Further, several prominent research directions in the future and potential challenges of multi-agent cooperative decision-making are also detailed.
Timing the Match: A Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach for Ride-Hailing and Ride-Pooling Services
Bao, Yiman, Gao, Jie, He, Jinke, Oliehoek, Frans A., Cats, Oded
Efficient timing in ride-matching is crucial for improving the performance of ride-hailing and ride-pooling services, as it determines the number of drivers and passengers considered in each matching process. Traditional batched matching methods often use fixed time intervals to accumulate ride requests before assigning matches. While this approach increases the number of available drivers and passengers for matching, it fails to adapt to real-time supply-demand fluctuations, often leading to longer passenger wait times and driver idle periods. To address this limitation, we propose an adaptive ride-matching strategy using deep reinforcement learning (RL) to dynamically determine when to perform matches based on real-time system conditions. Unlike fixed-interval approaches, our method continuously evaluates system states and executes matching at moments that minimize total passenger wait time. Additionally, we incorporate a potential-based reward shaping (PBRS) mechanism to mitigate sparse rewards, accelerating RL training and improving decision quality. Extensive empirical evaluations using a realistic simulator trained on real-world data demonstrate that our approach outperforms fixed-interval matching strategies, significantly reducing passenger waiting times and detour delays, thereby enhancing the overall efficiency of ride-hailing and ride-pooling systems.
Efficient Action-Constrained Reinforcement Learning via Acceptance-Rejection Method and Augmented MDPs
Hung, Wei, Sun, Shao-Hua, Hsieh, Ping-Chun
Action-constrained reinforcement learning (ACRL) is a generic framework for learning control policies with zero action constraint violation, which is required by various safety-critical and resource-constrained applications. The existing ACRL methods can typically achieve favorable constraint satisfaction but at the cost of either high computational burden incurred by the quadratic programs (QP) or increased architectural complexity due to the use of sophisticated generative models. In this paper, we propose a generic and computationally efficient framework that can adapt a standard unconstrained RL method to ACRL through two modifications: (i) To enforce the action constraints, we leverage the classic acceptance-rejection method, where we treat the unconstrained policy as the proposal distribution and derive a modified policy with feasible actions. (ii) To improve the acceptance rate of the proposal distribution, we construct an augmented two-objective Markov decision process (MDP), which include additional self-loop state transitions and a penalty signal for the rejected actions. This augmented MDP incentives the learned policy to stay close to the feasible action sets. Through extensive experiments in both robot control and resource allocation domains, we demonstrate that the proposed framework enjoys faster training progress, better constraint satisfaction, and a lower action inference time simultaneously than the state-of-the-art ACRL methods. We have made the source code publicly available to encourage further research in this direction.
A Generalist Hanabi Agent
Sudhakar, Arjun V, Nekoei, Hadi, Reymond, Mathieu, Liu, Miao, Rajendran, Janarthanan, Chandar, Sarath
Traditional multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) systems can develop cooperative strategies through repeated interactions. However, these systems are unable to perform well on any other setting than the one they have been trained on, and struggle to successfully cooperate with unfamiliar collaborators. This is particularly visible in the Hanabi benchmark, a popular 2-to-5 player cooperative card-game which requires complex reasoning and precise assistance to other agents. Current MARL agents for Hanabi can only learn one specific game-setting (e.g., 2-player games), and play with the same algorithmic agents. This is in stark contrast to humans, who can quickly adjust their strategies to work with unfamiliar partners or situations. In this paper, we introduce Recurrent Replay Relevance Distributed DQN (R3D2), a generalist agent for Hanabi, designed to overcome these limitations. We reformulate the task using text, as language has been shown to improve transfer. We then propose a distributed MARL algorithm that copes with the resulting dynamic observation-and action-space. In doing so, our agent is the first that can play all game settings concurrently, and extend strategies learned from one setting to other ones. As a consequence, our agent also demonstrates the ability to collaborate with different algorithmic agents -- agents that are themselves unable to do so. Humans were able to thrive as a society through their ability to cooperate. Interactions among multiple people or agents are essential components of various aspects of our lives, ranging from everyday activities like commuting to work, to the functioning of fundamental institutions like governments and economic markets. Through repeated interactions, humans can understand their partners, and learn to reason from their perspective. Crucially, humans can generalize their reasonings towards novel partners, in different situations. Artificial agents should be able to do the same for the successful collaboration of artificial and hybrid systems (Dafoe et al., 2020). This is why defining the problem of multi-agent cooperation nicely fits the multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) paradigm, as artificial agents learn to collaborate together through repeated interactions, in the same principled manner humans would. In MARL, the game of Hanabi has emerged as a popular benchmark to assess the cooperative abilities of learning agents (Bard et al., 2020).
Second-order Theory of Mind for Human Teachers and Robot Learners
Callaghan, Patrick, Simmons, Reid, Admoni, Henny
Confusing or otherwise unhelpful learner feedback creates or perpetuates erroneous beliefs that the teacher and learner have of each other, thereby increasing the cognitive burden placed upon the human teacher. For example, the robot's feedback might cause the human to misunderstand what the learner knows about the learning objective or how the learner learns. At the same time -- and in addition to the learning objective -- the learner might misunderstand how the teacher perceives the learner's task knowledge and learning processes. To ease the teaching burden, the learner should provide feedback that accounts for these misunderstandings and elicits efficient teaching from the human. This work endows an AI learner with a Second-order Theory of Mind that models perceived rationality as a source for the erroneous beliefs a teacher and learner may have of one another. It also explores how a learner can ease the teaching burden and improve teacher efficacy if it selects feedback which accounts for its model of the teacher's beliefs about the learner and its learning objective.
Disentangling Fine-Tuning from Pre-Training in Visual Captioning with Hybrid Markov Logic
Shah, Monika, Sarkhel, Somdeb, Venugopal, Deepak
Multimodal systems have highly complex processing pipelines and are pretrained over large datasets before being fine-tuned for specific tasks such as visual captioning. However, it becomes hard to disentangle what the model learns during the fine-tuning process from what it already knows due to its pretraining. In this work, we learn a probabilistic model using Hybrid Markov Logic Networks (HMLNs) over the training examples by relating symbolic knowledge (extracted from the caption) with visual features (extracted from the image). For a generated caption, we quantify the influence of training examples based on the HMLN distribution using probabilistic inference. We evaluate two types of inference procedures on the MSCOCO dataset for different types of captioning models. Our results show that for BLIP2 (a model that uses a LLM), the fine-tuning may have smaller influence on the knowledge the model has acquired since it may have more general knowledge to perform visual captioning as compared to models that do not use a LLM
Deep Belief Markov Models for POMDP Inference
Arcieri, Giacomo, Papakonstantinou, Konstantinos G., Straub, Daniel, Chatzi, Eleni
This work introduces a novel deep learning-based architecture, termed the Deep Belief Markov Model (DBMM), which provides efficient, model-formulation agnostic inference in Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) problems. The POMDP framework allows for modeling and solving sequential decision-making problems under observation uncertainty. In complex, high-dimensional, partially observable environments, existing methods for inference based on exact computations (e.g., via Bayes' theorem) or sampling algorithms do not scale well. Furthermore, ground truth states may not be available for learning the exact transition dynamics. DBMMs extend deep Markov models into the partially observable decision-making framework and allow efficient belief inference entirely based on available observation data via variational inference methods. By leveraging the potency of neural networks, DBMMs can infer and simulate non-linear relationships in the system dynamics and naturally scale to problems with high dimensionality and discrete or continuous variables. In addition, neural network parameters can be dynamically updated efficiently based on data availability. DBMMs can thus be used to infer a belief variable, thus enabling the derivation of POMDP solutions over the belief space. We evaluate the efficacy of the proposed methodology by evaluating the capability of model-formulation agnostic inference of DBMMs in benchmark problems that include discrete and continuous variables.
Sampling Decisions
Chertkov, Michael, Ahn, Sungsoo, Behjoo, Hamidreza
In this manuscript we introduce a novel Decision Flow (DF) framework for sampling from a target distribution while incorporating additional guidance from a prior sampler. DF can be viewed as an AI driven algorithmic reincarnation of the Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach in Stochastic Optimal Control. It extends the continuous space, continuous time path Integral Diffusion sampling technique to discrete time and space, while also generalizing the Generative Flow Network framework. In its most basic form, an explicit, Neural Network (NN) free formulation, DF leverages the linear solvability of the the underlying MDP to adjust the transition probabilities of the prior sampler. The resulting Markov Process is expressed as a convolution of the reverse time Green's function of the prior sampling with the target distribution. We illustrate the DF framework through an example of sampling from the Ising model, discuss potential NN based extensions, and outline how DF can enhance guided sampling across various applications.
Estimating stationary mass, frequency by frequency
Nakul, Milind, Muthukumar, Vidya, Pananjady, Ashwin
Suppose we observe a trajectory of length $n$ from an $\alpha$-mixing stochastic process over a finite but potentially large state space. We consider the problem of estimating the probability mass placed by the stationary distribution of any such process on elements that occur with a certain frequency in the observed sequence. We estimate this vector of probabilities in total variation distance, showing universal consistency in $n$ and recovering known results for i.i.d. sequences as special cases. Our proposed methodology carefully combines the plug-in (or empirical) estimator with a recently-proposed modification of the Good--Turing estimator called WingIt, which was originally developed for Markovian sequences. En route to controlling the error of our estimator, we develop new performance bounds on WingIt and the plug-in estimator for $\alpha$-mixing stochastic processes. Importantly, the extensively used method of Poissonization can no longer be applied in our non i.i.d. setting, and so we develop complementary tools -- including concentration inequalities for a natural self-normalized statistic of mixing sequences -- that may prove independently useful in the design and analysis of estimators for related problems.
Probabilistic Shielding for Safe Reinforcement Learning
Court, Edwin Hamel-De le, Belardinelli, Francesco, Goodall, Alex W.
In real-life scenarios, a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent aiming to maximise their reward, must often also behave in a safe manner, including at training time. Thus, much attention in recent years has been given to Safe RL, where an agent aims to learn an optimal policy among all policies that satisfy a given safety constraint. However, strict safety guarantees are often provided through approaches based on linear programming, and thus have limited scaling. In this paper we present a new, scalable method, which enjoys strict formal guarantees for Safe RL, in the case where the safety dynamics of the Markov Decision Process (MDP) are known, and safety is defined as an undiscounted probabilistic avoidance property. Our approach is based on state-augmentation of the MDP, and on the design of a shield that restricts the actions available to the agent. We show that our approach provides a strict formal safety guarantee that the agent stays safe at training and test time. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our approach is viable in practice through experimental evaluation.