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 Markov Models


Controlled Territory and Conflict Tracking (CONTACT): (Geo-)Mapping Occupied Territory from Open Source Intelligence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Open-source intelligence provides a stream of unstructured textual data that can inform assessments of territorial control. We present CONTACT, a framework for territorial control prediction using large language models (LLMs) and minimal supervision. We evaluate two approaches: SetFit, an embedding-based few-shot classifier, and a prompt tuning method applied to BLOOMZ-560m, a multilingual generative LLM. Our model is trained on a small hand-labeled dataset of news articles covering ISIS activity in Syria and Iraq, using prompt-conditioned extraction of control-relevant signals such as military operations, casualties, and location references. We show that the BLOOMZ-based model outperforms the SetFit baseline, and that prompt-based supervision improves generalization in low-resource settings. CONTACT demonstrates that LLMs fine-tuned using few-shot methods can reduce annotation burdens and support structured inference from open-ended OSINT streams. Our code is available at https://github.com/PaulKMandal/CONTACT/.


MSTIM: A MindSpore-Based Model for Traffic Flow Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Aiming at the problems of low accuracy and large error fluctuation of traditional traffic flow predictionmodels when dealing with multi-scale temporal features and dynamic change patterns. this paperproposes a multi-scale time series information modelling model MSTIM based on the Mindspore framework, which integrates long and short-term memory networks (LSTMs), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and the attention mechanism to improve the modelling accuracy and stability. The Metropolitan Interstate Traffic Volume (MITV) dataset was used for the experiments and compared and analysed with typical LSTM-attention models, CNN-attention models and LSTM-CNN models. The experimental results show that the MSTIM model achieves better results in the metrics of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), which significantly improves the accuracy and stability of the traffic volume prediction.


RL-PINNs: Reinforcement Learning-Driven Adaptive Sampling for Efficient Training of PINNs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful framework for solving partial differential equations (PDEs). However, their performance heavily relies on the strategy used to select training points. Conventional adaptive sampling methods, such as residual-based refinement, often require multi-round sampling and repeated retraining of PINNs, leading to computational inefficiency due to redundant points and costly gradient computations-particularly in high-dimensional or high-order derivative scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose RL-PINNs, a reinforcement learning(RL)-driven adaptive sampling framework that enables efficient training with only a single round of sampling. Our approach formulates adaptive sampling as a Markov decision process, where an RL agent dynamically selects optimal training points by maximizing a long-term utility metric. Critically, we replace gradient-dependent residual metrics with a computationally efficient function variation as the reward signal, eliminating the overhead of derivative calculations. Furthermore, we employ a delayed reward mechanism to prioritize long-term training stability over short-term gains. Extensive experiments across diverse PDE benchmarks, including low-regular, nonlinear, high-dimensional, and high-order problems, demonstrate that RL-PINNs significantly outperforms existing residual-driven adaptive methods in accuracy. Notably, RL-PINNs achieve this with negligible sampling overhead, making them scalable to high-dimensional and high-order problems.


WebLists: Extracting Structured Information From Complex Interactive Websites Using Executable LLM Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most recent web agent research has focused on navigation and transaction tasks, with little emphasis on extracting structured data at scale. We present WebLists, a benchmark of 200 data-extraction tasks across four common business and enterprise use-cases. Each task requires an agent to navigate to a webpage, configure it appropriately, and extract complete datasets with well-defined schemas. We show that both LLMs with search capabilities and SOTA web agents struggle with these tasks, with a recall of 3% and 31%, respectively, despite higher performance on question-answering tasks. To address this challenge, we propose BardeenAgent, a novel framework that enables web agents to convert their execution into repeatable programs, and replay them at scale across pages with similar structure. BardeenAgent is also the first LLM agent to take advantage of the regular structure of HTML. In particular BardeenAgent constructs a generalizable CSS selector to capture all relevant items on the page, then fits the operations to extract the data. On the WebLists benchmark, BardeenAgent achieves 66% recall overall, more than doubling the performance of SOTA web agents, and reducing cost per output row by 3x.


REAL: Benchmarking Autonomous Agents on Deterministic Simulations of Real Websites

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce REAL, a benchmark and framework for multi-turn agent evaluations on deterministic simulations of real-world websites. REAL comprises high-fidelity, deterministic replicas of 11 widely-used websites across domains such as e-commerce, travel, communication, and professional networking. We also release a benchmark consisting of 112 practical tasks that mirror everyday complex user interactions requiring both accurate information retrieval and state-changing actions. All interactions occur within this fully controlled setting, eliminating safety risks and enabling robust, reproducible evaluation of agent capability and reliability. Our novel evaluation framework combines programmatic checks of website state for action-based tasks with rubric-guided LLM-based judgments for information retrieval. The framework supports both open-source and proprietary agent systems through a flexible evaluation harness that accommodates black-box commands within browser environments, allowing research labs to test agentic systems without modification. Our empirical results show that frontier language models achieve at most a 41% success rate on REAL, highlighting critical gaps in autonomous web navigation and task completion capabilities. Our framework supports easy integration of new tasks, reproducible evaluation, and scalable post-training data generation, marking a significant step forward in evaluating and advancing agent capabilities.


Achieving Tighter Finite-Time Rates for Heterogeneous Federated Stochastic Approximation under Markovian Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motivated by collaborative reinforcement learning (RL) and optimization with time-correlated data, we study a generic federated stochastic approximation problem involving $M$ agents, where each agent is characterized by an agent-specific (potentially nonlinear) local operator. The goal is for the agents to communicate intermittently via a server to find the root of the average of the agents' local operators. The generality of our setting stems from allowing for (i) Markovian data at each agent and (ii) heterogeneity in the roots of the agents' local operators. The limited recent work that has accounted for both these features in a federated setting fails to guarantee convergence to the desired point or to show any benefit of collaboration; furthermore, they rely on projection steps in their algorithms to guarantee bounded iterates. Our work overcomes each of these limitations. We develop a novel algorithm titled \texttt{FedHSA}, and prove that it guarantees convergence to the correct point, while enjoying an $M$-fold linear speedup in sample-complexity due to collaboration. To our knowledge, \emph{this is the first finite-time result of its kind}, and establishing it (without relying on a projection step) entails a fairly intricate argument that accounts for the interplay between complex temporal correlations due to Markovian sampling, multiple local steps to save communication, and the drift-effects induced by heterogeneous local operators. Our results have implications for a broad class of heterogeneous federated RL problems (e.g., policy evaluation and control) with function approximation, where the agents' Markov decision processes can differ in their probability transition kernels and reward functions.


Dynamic Compressing Prompts for Efficient Inference of Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown outstanding performance across a variety of tasks, partly due to advanced prompting techniques. However, these techniques often require lengthy prompts, which increase computational costs and can hinder performance because of the limited context windows of LLMs. While prompt compression is a straightforward solution, existing methods confront the challenges of retaining essential information, adapting to context changes, and remaining effective across different tasks. T o tackle these issues, we propose a task-agnostic method called Dynamic Compressing Prompts (LLM-DCP). Our method reduces the number of prompt tokens while aiming to preserve the performance as much as possible. We model prompt compression as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), enabling the DCP-Agent to sequentially remove redundant tokens by adapting to dynamic contexts and retaining crucial content. We develop a reward function for training the DCP-Agent that balances the compression rate, the quality of the LLM output, and the retention of key information. This allows for prompt token reduction without needing an external black-box LLM. Inspired by the progressive difficulty adjustment in curriculum learning, we introduce a Hierarchical Prompt Compression (HPC) training strategy that gradually increases the compression difficulty, enabling the DCP-Agent to learn an effective compression method that maintains information integrity. Experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques, especially at higher compression rates. The code for our approach will be available at https://github.com/Fhujinwu/DCP .


Breaking the Data Barrier -- Building GUI Agents Through Task Generalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents offer cross-platform solutions for automating complex digital tasks, with significant potential to transform productivity workflows. However, their performance is often constrained by the scarcity of high-quality trajectory data. To address this limitation, we propose training Vision Language Models (VLMs) on data-rich, reasoning-intensive tasks during a dedicated mid-training stage, and then examine how incorporating these tasks facilitates generalization to GUI planning scenarios. Specifically, we explore a range of tasks with readily available instruction-tuning data, including GUI perception, multimodal reasoning, and textual reasoning. Through extensive experiments across 11 mid-training tasks, we demonstrate that: (1) Task generalization proves highly effective, yielding substantial improvements across most settings. For instance, multimodal mathematical reasoning enhances performance on AndroidWorld by an absolute 6.3%. Remarkably, text-only mathematical data significantly boosts GUI web agent performance, achieving a 5.6% improvement on WebArena and 5.4% improvement on AndroidWorld, underscoring notable cross-modal generalization from text-based to visual domains; (2) Contrary to prior assumptions, GUI perception data - previously considered closely aligned with GUI agent tasks and widely utilized for training - has a comparatively limited impact on final performance; (3) Building on these insights, we identify the most effective mid-training tasks and curate optimized mixture datasets, resulting in absolute performance gains of 8.0% on WebArena and 12.2% on AndroidWorld. Our work provides valuable insights into cross-domain knowledge transfer for GUI agents and offers a practical approach to addressing data scarcity challenges in this emerging field. The code, data and models will be available at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/GUIMid.


Dynamik: Syntactically-Driven Dynamic Font Sizing for Emphasis of Key Information

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In today's globalized world, there are increasing opportunities for individuals to communicate using a common non-native language (lingua franca). Non-native speakers often have opportunities to listen to foreign languages, but may not comprehend them as fully as native speakers do. To aid real-time comprehension, live transcription of subtitles is frequently used in everyday life (e.g., during Zoom conversations, watching YouTube videos, or on social networking sites). However, simultaneously reading subtitles while listening can increase cognitive load. In this study, we propose Dynamik, a system that reduces cognitive load during reading by decreasing the size of less important words and enlarging important ones, thereby enhancing sentence contrast. Our results indicate that Dynamik can reduce certain aspects of cognitive load, specifically, participants' perceived performance and effort among individuals with low proficiency in English, as well as enhance the users' sense of comprehension, especially among people with low English ability. We further discuss our methods' applicability to other languages and potential improvements and further research directions.


Sequence models for by-trial decoding of cognitive strategies from neural data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding the sequence of cognitive operations that underlie decision-making is a fundamental challenge in cognitive neuroscience. Traditional approaches often rely on group-level statistics, which obscure trial-by-trial variations in cognitive strategies. In this study, we introduce a novel machine learning method that combines Hidden Multivariate Pattern analysis with a Structured State Space Sequence model to decode cognitive strategies from electroencephalography data at the trial level. We apply this method to a decision-making task, where participants were instructed to prioritize either speed or accuracy in their responses. Our results reveal an additional cognitive operation, labeled Confirmation, which seems to occur predominantly in the accuracy condition but also frequently in the speed condition. The modeled probability that this operation occurs is associated with higher probability of responding correctly as well as changes of mind, as indexed by electromyography data. By successfully modeling cognitive operations at the trial level, we provide empirical evidence for dynamic variability in decision strategies, challenging the assumption of homogeneous cognitive processes within experimental conditions. Our approach shows the potential of sequence modeling in cognitive neuroscience to capture trial-level variability that is obscured by aggregate analyses. The introduced method offers a new way to detect and understand cognitive strategies in a data-driven manner, with implications for both theoretical research and practical applications in many fields.