Markov Models
Better Models and Algorithms for Learning Ising Models from Dynamics
Gaitonde, Jason, Moitra, Ankur, Mossel, Elchanan
We study the problem of learning the structure and parameters of the Ising model, a fundamental model of high-dimensional data, when observing the evolution of an associated Markov chain. A recent line of work has studied the natural problem of learning when observing an evolution of the well-known Glauber dynamics [Bresler, Gamarnik, Shah, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 2018, Gaitonde, Mossel STOC 2024], which provides an arguably more realistic generative model than the classical i.i.d. setting. However, this prior work crucially assumes that all site update attempts are observed, \emph{even when this attempt does not change the configuration}: this strong observation model is seemingly essential for these approaches. While perhaps possible in restrictive contexts, this precludes applicability to most realistic settings where we can observe \emph{only} the stochastic evolution itself, a minimal and natural assumption for any process we might hope to learn from. However, designing algorithms that succeed in this more realistic setting has remained an open problem [Bresler, Gamarnik, Shah, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 2018, Gaitonde, Moitra, Mossel, STOC 2025]. In this work, we give the first algorithms that efficiently learn the Ising model in this much more natural observation model that only observes when the configuration changes. For Ising models with maximum degree $d$, our algorithm recovers the underlying dependency graph in time $\mathsf{poly}(d)\cdot n^2\log n$ and then the actual parameters in additional $\widetilde{O}(2^d n)$ time, which qualitatively matches the state-of-the-art even in the i.i.d. setting in a much weaker observation model. Our analysis holds more generally for a broader class of reversible, single-site Markov chains that also includes the popular Metropolis chain by leveraging more robust properties of reversible Markov chains.
Robots for Kiwifruit Harvesting and Pollination
This research was a part of a project that developed mobile robots that performed targeted pollen spraying and automated harvesting in pergola structured kiwifruit orchards. Multiple kiwifruit detachment mechanisms were designed and field testing of one of the concepts showed that the mechanism could reliably pick kiwifruit. Furthermore, this kiwifruit detachment mechanism was able to reach over 80 percent of fruit in the cluttered kiwifruit canopy, whereas the previous state of the art mechanism was only able to reach less than 70 percent of the fruit. Artificial pollination was performed by detecting flowers and then spraying pollen in solution onto the detected flowers from a line of sprayers on a boom, while driving at up to 1.4 ms-1. In addition, the height of the canopy was measured and the spray boom was moved up and down to keep the boom close enough to the flowers for the spray to reach the flowers, while minimising collisions with the canopy. Mobile robot navigation was performed using a 2D lidar in apple orchards and vineyards. Lidar navigation in kiwifruit orchards was more challenging because the pergola structure only provides a small amount of data for the direction of rows, compared to the amount of data from the overhead canopy, the undulating ground and other objects in the orchards. Multiple methods are presented here for extracting structure defining features from 3D lidar data in kiwifruit orchards. In addition, a 3D lidar navigation system -- which performed row following, row end detection and row end turns -- was tested for over 30 km of autonomous driving in kiwifruit orchards. Computer vision algorithms for row detection and row following were also tested. The computer vision algorithm worked as well as the 3D lidar row following method in testing.
Joint-Local Grounded Action Transformation for Sim-to-Real Transfer in Multi-Agent Traffic Control
Turnau, Justin, Da, Longchao, Vo, Khoa, Rafi, Ferdous Al, Bachiraju, Shreyas, Chen, Tiejin, Wei, Hua
Traffic Signal Control (TSC) is essential for managing urban traffic flow and reducing congestion. Reinforcement Learning (RL) offers an adaptive method for TSC by responding to dynamic traffic patterns, with multi-agent RL (MARL) gaining traction as intersections naturally function as coordinated agents. However, due to shifts in environmental dynamics, implementing MARL-based TSC policies in the real world often leads to a significant performance drop, known as the sim-to-real gap. Grounded Action Transformation (GAT) has successfully mitigated this gap in single-agent RL for TSC, but real-world traffic networks, which involve numerous interacting intersections, are better suited to a MARL framework. In this work, we introduce JL-GAT, an application of GAT to MARL-based TSC that balances scalability with enhanced grounding capability by incorporating information from neighboring agents. JL-GAT adopts a decentralized approach to GAT, allowing for the scalability often required in real-world traffic networks while still capturing key interactions between agents. Comprehensive experiments on various road networks under simulated adverse weather conditions, along with ablation studies, demonstrate the effectiveness of JL-GAT. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/DaRL-LibSignal/JL-GAT/.
Search-Based Autonomous Vehicle Motion Planning Using Game Theory
Panahandeh, Pouya, Pirani, Mohammad, Fidan, Baris, Khajepour, Amir
--In this paper, we propose a search-based interactive motion planning scheme for autonomous vehicles (A Vs), using a game-theoretic approach. In contrast to traditional search-based approaches, the newly developed approach considers other road users (e.g. This leads to the generation of a more realistic path for the A V . Due to the low computational time, the proposed motion planning scheme is implementable in real-time applications. The performance of the developed motion planning scheme is compared with existing motion planning techniques and validated through experiments using W A T onoBus, an electrical all-weather autonomous shuttle bus. NTELLIGENT vehicles have increased their capabilities for highly automated driving under controlled environments i.e., driving scenarios that are designed to be predictable, stable, and safe for autonomous vehicles (A Vs) to operate in [1], [2]. Scene information is received using onboard sensors and communication network systems, i.e., infrastructure and other vehicles. Considering the available information, different motion planning and control techniques have been developed for autonomously driving in complex environments. The main goal is focused on executing strategies to improve safety, comfort, and energy optimization. One of the essential conditions for A V safety is ensuring safe interactions with other road users, including human-driven vehicles as well as pedestrians.
APIGen-MT: Agentic Pipeline for Multi-Turn Data Generation via Simulated Agent-Human Interplay
Prabhakar, Akshara, Liu, Zuxin, Zhu, Ming, Zhang, Jianguo, Awalgaonkar, Tulika, Wang, Shiyu, Liu, Zhiwei, Chen, Haolin, Hoang, Thai, Niebles, Juan Carlos, Heinecke, Shelby, Yao, Weiran, Wang, Huan, Savarese, Silvio, Xiong, Caiming
Training effective AI agents for multi-turn interactions requires high-quality data that captures realistic human-agent dynamics, yet such data is scarce and expensive to collect manually. We introduce APIGen-MT, a two-phase framework that generates verifiable and diverse multi-turn agent data. In the first phase, our agentic pipeline produces detailed task blueprints with ground-truth actions, leveraging a committee of LLM reviewers and iterative feedback loops. These blueprints are then transformed into complete interaction trajectories through simulated human-agent interplay. We train a family of models -- the xLAM-2-fc-r series with sizes ranging from 1B to 70B parameters. Our models outperform frontier models such as GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 on $ฯ$-bench and BFCL benchmarks, with the smaller models surpassing their larger counterparts, particularly in multi-turn settings, while maintaining superior consistency across multiple trials. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our verified blueprint-to-details approach yields high-quality training data, enabling the development of more reliable, efficient, and capable agents. We open-source 5K synthetic data trajectories and the trained xLAM-2-fc-r models to advance research in AI agents. Models at https://huggingface.co/collections/Salesforce/xlam-2-67ef5be12949d8dcdae354c4; Dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Salesforce/APIGen-MT-5k and Website at https://apigen-mt.github.io
On the Fundamental Limitations of Dual Static CVaR Decompositions in Markov Decision Processes
Godbout, Mathieu, Durand, Audrey
Recent work has shown that dynamic programming (DP) methods for finding static CVaR-optimal policies in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) can fail when based on the dual formulation, yet the root cause for the failure has remained unclear. We expand on these findings by shifting focus from policy optimization to the seemingly simpler task of policy evaluation. We show that evaluating the static CVaR of a given policy can be framed as two distinct minimization problems. For their solutions to match, a set of ``risk-assignment consistency constraints'' must be satisfied, and we demonstrate that the intersection of the constraints being empty is the source of previously observed evaluation errors. Quantifying the evaluation error as the CVaR evaluation gap, we then demonstrate that the issues observed when optimizing over the dual-based CVaR DP are explained by the returned policy having a non-zero CVaR evaluation gap. We then leverage our proposed risk-assignment perspective to prove that the search for a single, uniformly optimal policy via on the dual CVaR decomposition is fundamentally limited, identifying an MDP where no single policy can be optimal across all initial risk levels.
A Translation of Probabilistic Event Calculus into Markov Decision Processes
Xu, Lyris, D'Asaro, Fabio Aurelio, Dickens, Luke
Probabilistic Event Calculus (PEC) is a logical framework for reasoning about actions and their effects in uncertain environments, which enables the representation of probabilistic narratives and computation of temporal projections. The PEC formalism offers significant advantages in interpretability and expressiveness for narrative reasoning. However, it lacks mechanisms for goal-directed reasoning. This paper bridges this gap by developing a formal translation of PEC domains into Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), introducing the concept of "action-taking situations" to preserve PEC's flexible action semantics. The resulting PEC-MDP formalism enables the extensive collection of algorithms and theoretical tools developed for MDPs to be applied to PEC's interpretable narrative domains. We demonstrate how the translation supports both temporal reasoning tasks and objective-driven planning, with methods for mapping learned policies back into human-readable PEC representations, maintaining interpretability while extending PEC's capabilities.
MC$^2$A: Enabling Algorithm-Hardware Co-Design for Efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo Acceleration
Zhao, Shirui, Yin, Jun, Yao, Lingyun, Andraud, Martin, Meert, Wannes, Verhelst, Marian
An increasing number of applications are exploiting sampling-based algorithms for planning, optimization, and inference. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms form the computational backbone of this emerging branch of machine learning. Unfortunately, the high computational cost limits their feasibility for large-scale problems and real-world applications, and the existing MCMC acceleration solutions are either limited in hardware flexibility or fail to maintain efficiency at the system level across a variety of end-to-end applications. This paper introduces \textbf{MC$^2$A}, an algorithm-hardware co-design framework, enabling efficient and flexible optimization for MCMC acceleration. Firstly, \textbf{MC$^2$A} analyzes the MCMC workload diversity through an extension of the processor performance roofline model with a 3rd dimension to derive the optimal balance between the compute, sampling and memory parameters. Secondly, \textbf{MC$^2$A} proposes a parametrized hardware accelerator architecture with flexible and efficient support of MCMC kernels with a pipeline of ISA-programmable tree-structured processing units, reconfigurable samplers and a crossbar interconnect to support irregular access. Thirdly, the core of \textbf{MC$^2$A} is powered by a novel Gumbel sampler that eliminates exponential and normalization operations. In the end-to-end case study, \textbf{MC$^2$A} achieves an overall {$307.6\times$, $1.4\times$, $2.0\times$, $84.2\times$} speedup compared to the CPU, GPU, TPU and state-of-the-art MCMC accelerator. Evaluated on various representative MCMC workloads, this work demonstrates and exploits the feasibility of general hardware acceleration to popularize MCMC-based solutions in diverse application domains.
A Survey of Explainable Reinforcement Learning: Targets, Methods and Needs
The success of recent Artificial Intelligence (AI) models has been accompanied by the opacity of their internal mechanisms, due notably to the use of deep neural networks. In order to understand these internal mechanisms and explain the output of these AI models, a set of methods have been proposed, grouped under the domain of eXplainable AI (XAI). This paper focuses on a sub-domain of XAI, called eXplainable Reinforcement Learning (XRL), which aims to explain the actions of an agent that has learned by reinforcement learning. We propose an intuitive taxonomy based on two questions "What" and "How". The first question focuses on the target that the method explains, while the second relates to the way the explanation is provided. We use this taxonomy to provide a state-of-the-art review of over 250 papers. In addition, we present a set of domains close to XRL, which we believe should get attention from the community. Finally, we identify some needs for the field of XRL.
Boosting Team Modeling through Tempo-Relational Representation Learning
De Luca, Vincenzo Marco, Varni, Giovanna, Passerini, Andrea
Team modeling remains a fundamental challenge at the intersection of Artificial Intelligence and the Social Sciences. Social Science research emphasizes the need to jointly model dynamics and relations, while practical applications demand unified models capable of inferring multiple team constructs simultaneously, providing interpretable insights and actionable recommendations to enhance team performance. However, existing works do not meet these practical demands. To bridge this gap, we present TRENN, a novel tempo-relational architecture that integrates: (i) an automatic temporal graph extractor, (ii) a tempo-relational encoder, (iii) a decoder for team construct prediction, and (iv) two complementary explainability modules. TRENN jointly captures relational and temporal team dynamics, providing a solid foundation for MT-TRENN, which extends TReNN by replacing the decoder with a multi-task head, enabling the model to learn shared Social Embeddings and simultaneously predict multiple team constructs, including Emergent Leadership, Leadership Style, and Teamwork components. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms approaches that rely exclusively on temporal or relational information. Additionally, experimental evaluation has shown that the explainability modules integrated in MT-TRENN yield interpretable insights and actionable suggestions to support team improvement. These capabilities make our approach particularly well-suited for Human-Centered AI applications, such as intelligent decision-support systems in high-stakes collaborative environments.