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 Markov Models



Optimal Tagging with Markov Chain Optimization

Neural Information Processing Systems

Many information systems use tags and keywords to describe and annotate content. These allow for efficient organization and categorization of items, as well as facilitate relevant search queries. As such, the selected set of tags for an item can have a considerable effect on the volume of traffic that eventually reaches an item. In tagging systems where tags are exclusively chosen by an item's owner, who in turn is interested in maximizing traffic, a principled approach for assigning tags can prove valuable. In this paper we introduce the problem of optimal tagging, where the task is to choose a subset of tags for a new item such that the probability of browsing users reaching that item is maximized.



A Non-generative Framework and Convex Relaxations for Unsupervised Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We give a novel formal theoretical framework for unsupervised learning with two distinctive characteristics. First, it does not assume any generative model and based on a worst-case performance metric. Second, it is comparative, namely performance is measured with respect to a given hypothesis class. This allows to avoid known computational hardness results and improper algorithms based on convex relaxations. We show how several families of unsupervised learning models, which were previously only analyzed under probabilistic assumptions and are otherwise provably intractable, can be efficiently learned in our framework by convex optimization.


Pairwise Choice Markov Chains

Neural Information Processing Systems

As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale--particularly in online domains--there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansion, a considerably weaker assumption than Luce's choice axiom. We show that the PCMC model significantly outperforms both the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model and a mixed MNL (MMNL) model in prediction tasks on both synthetic and empirical datasets known to exhibit violations of Luce's axiom. Our analysis also synthesizes several recent observations connecting the Multinomial Logit model and Markov chains; the PCMC model retains the Multinomial Logit model as a special case.



Causal models for decision systems: an interview with Matteo Ceriscioli

AIHub

How do you go about integrating causal knowledge into decision systems or agents? We sat down with Matteo Ceriscioli to find out about his research in this space. This interview is the latest in our series featuring the AAAI/SIGAI Doctoral Consortium participants. Could you start by telling us a bit about your PhD - where are you studying, and what's the broad topic of your research? The idea is to integrate causal knowledge into agents or decision systems to make them more reliable.


Boltzmann Machine Learning with a Parallel, Persistent Markov chain Monte Carlo method for Estimating Evolutionary Fields and Couplings from a Protein Multiple Sequence Alignment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The inverse Potts problem for estimating evolutionary single-site fields and pairwise couplings in homologous protein sequences from their single-site and pairwise amino acid frequencies observed in their multiple sequence alignment would be still one of useful methods in the studies of protein structure and evolution. Since the reproducibility of fields and couplings are the most important, the Boltzmann machine method is employed here, although it is computationally intensive. In order to reduce computational time required for the Boltzmann machine, parallel, persistent Markov chain Monte Carlo method is employed to estimate the single-site and pairwise marginal distributions in each learning step. Also, stochastic gradient descent methods are used to reduce computational time for each learning. Another problem is how to adjust the values of hyperparameters; there are two regularization parameters for evolutionary fields and couplings. The precision of contact residue pair prediction is often used to adjust the hyperparameters. However, it is not sensitive to these regularization parameters. Here, they are adjusted for the fields and couplings to satisfy a specific condition that is appropriate for protein conformations. This method has been applied to eight protein families.


DARLING: Detection Augmented Reinforcement Learning with Non-Stationary Guarantees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study model-free reinforcement learning (RL) in non-stationary finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) without prior knowledge of the non-stationarity. We focus on the piecewise-stationary (PS) setting, where both the reward and transition dynamics can change an arbitrary number of times. We propose Detection Augmented Reinforcement Learning (DARLING), a modular wrapper for PS-RL that applies to both tabular and linear MDPs, without knowledge of the changes. Under certain change-point separation and reachability conditions, DARLING improves the best available dynamic regret bounds in both settings and yields strong empirical performance. We further establish the first minimax lower bounds for PS-RL in tabular and linear MDPs, showing that DARLING is the first nearly optimal algorithm. Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that DARLING consistently surpasses the state-of-the-art methods across diverse non-stationary scenarios.


Scalable Model-Based Clustering with Sequential Monte Carlo

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In online clustering problems, there is often a large amount of uncertainty over possible cluster assignments that cannot be resolved until more data are observed. This difficulty is compounded when clusters follow complex distributions, as is the case with text data. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods give a natural way of representing and updating this uncertainty over time, but have prohibitive memory requirements for large-scale problems. We propose a novel SMC algorithm that decomposes clustering problems into approximately independent subproblems, allowing a more compact representation of the algorithm state. Our approach is motivated by the knowledge base construction problem, and we show that our method is able to accurately and efficiently solve clustering problems in this setting and others where traditional SMC struggles.