Markov Models
Disentangling Identifiable Features from Noisy Data with Structured Nonlinear ICA
We introduce a new general identifiable framework for principled disentanglement referred to as Structured Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis (SNICA). Our contribution is to extend the identifiability theory of deep generative models for a very broad class of structured models. While previous works have shown identifiability for specific classes of time-series models, our theorems extend this to more general temporal structures as well as to models with more complex structures such as spatial dependencies. In particular, we establish the major result that identifiability for this framework holds even in the presence of noise of unknown distribution. Finally, as an example of our framework's flexibility, we introduce the first nonlinear ICA model for time-series that combines the following very useful properties: it accounts for both nonstationarity and autocorrelation in a fully unsupervised setting; performs dimensionality reduction; models hidden states; and enables principled estimation and inference by variational maximum-likelihood.
Reward-Free Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation
We study the model-based reward-free reinforcement learning with linear function approximation for episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this setting, the agent works in two phases. In the exploration phase, the agent interacts with the environment and collects samples without the reward. In the planning phase, the agent is given a specific reward function and uses samples collected from the exploration phase to learn a good policy. We propose a new provably efficient algorithm, called UCRL-RFE under the Linear Mixture MDP assumption, where the transition probability kernel of the MDP can be parameterized by a linear function over certain feature mappings defined on the triplet of state, action, and next state.
Play to Grade: Testing Coding Games as Classifying Markov Decision Process
Contemporary coding education often presents students with the task of developing programs that have user interaction and complex dynamic systems, such as mouse based games. While pedagogically compelling, there are no contemporary autonomous methods for providing feedback. Notably, interactive programs are impossible to grade by traditional unit tests.
Regularized Softmax Deep Multi-Agent Q-Learning
Tackling overestimation in Q-learning is an important problem that has been extensively studied in single-agent reinforcement learning, but has received comparatively little attention in the multi-agent setting. In this work, we empirically demonstrate that QMIX, a popular Q-learning algorithm for cooperative multiagent reinforcement learning (MARL), suffers from a more severe overestimation in practice than previously acknowledged, and is not mitigated by existing approaches. We rectify this with a novel regularization-based update scheme that penalizes large joint action-values that deviate from a baseline and demonstrate its effectiveness in stabilizing learning. Furthermore, we propose to employ a softmax operator, which we efficiently approximate in a novel way in the multiagent setting, to further reduce the potential overestimation bias. Our approach, Regularized Softmax (RES) Deep Multi-Agent Q-Learning, is general and can be applied to any Q-learning based MARL algorithm. We demonstrate that, when applied to QMIX, RES avoids severe overestimation and significantly improves performance, yielding state-of-the-art results in a variety of cooperative multi-agent tasks, including the challenging StarCraft II micromanagement benchmarks.
Incrementality Bidding via Reinforcement Learning under Mixed and Delayed Rewards
Incrementality, which measures the causal effect of showing an ad to a potential customer (e.g. a user in an internet platform) versus not, is a central object for advertisers in online advertising platforms. This paper investigates the problem of how an advertiser can learn to optimize the bidding sequence in an online manner without knowing the incrementality parameters in advance. We formulate the offline version of this problem as a specially structured episodic Markov Decision Process (MDP) and then, for its online learning counterpart, propose a novel reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm with regret at most eO(H2 T), which depends on the number of rounds H and number of episodes T, but does not depend on the number of actions (i.e., possible bids). A fundamental difference between our learning problem from standard RL problems is that the realized reward feedback from conversion incrementality is mixed and delayed. To handle this difficulty we propose and analyze a novel pairwise moment-matching algorithm to learn the conversion incrementality, which we believe is of independent interest.
Risk-Averse Bayes-Adaptive Reinforcement Learning
In this work, we address risk-averse Bayes-adaptive reinforcement learning. We pose the problem of optimising the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the total return in Bayes-adaptive Markov decision processes (MDPs). We show that a policy optimising CVaR in this setting is risk-averse to both the epistemic uncertainty due to the prior distribution over MDPs, and the aleatoric uncertainty due to the inherent stochasticity of MDPs. We reformulate the problem as a two-player stochastic game and propose an approximate algorithm based on Monte Carlo tree search and Bayesian optimisation. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms baseline approaches for this problem.