We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification.

Predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making is central for optimizing therapeutic decisions in personalized medicine (e.g., which dosing sequence to give to a cancer patient). However, predicting potential outcomes over long horizons is notoriously difficult. Existing methods that break the curse of the horizon typically lack strong theoretical guarantees such as orthogonality and quasi-oracle efficiency. In this paper, we revisit the problem of predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making (i.e., estimating Q-functions in Markov decision processes with observational data) through a causal inference lens. In particular, we develop a comprehensive theoretical foundation for meta-learners in this setting with a focus on beneficial theoretical properties. As a result, we yield a novel meta-learner called DRQ-learner and establish that it is: (1) doubly robust (i.e., valid inference under the misspecification of one of the nuisances), (2) Neyman-orthogonal (i.e., insensitive to first-order estimation errors in the nuisance functions), and (3) achieves quasi-oracle efficiency (i.e., behaves asymptotically as if the ground-truth nuisance functions were known). Our DRQ-learner is applicable to settings with both discrete and continuous state spaces. Further, our DRQ-learner is flexible and can be used together with arbitrary machine learning models (e.g., neural networks). We validate our theoretical results through numerical experiments, thereby showing that our meta-learner outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

The Metropolis-within-Gibbs (MwG) algorithm is a widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for sampling from high-dimensional distributions when exact conditional sampling is intractable. We study MwG with Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) updates, using proposal variances tuned to match the target's conditional variances. Assuming the target $π$ is a $d$-dimensional log-concave distribution with condition number $κ$, we establish a spectral gap lower bound of order $\mathcal{O}(1/κd)$ for the random-scan version of MwG, improving on the previously available $\mathcal{O}(1/κ^2 d)$ bound. This is obtained by developing sharp estimates of the conductance of one-dimensional RWM kernels, which can be of independent interest. The result shows that MwG can mix substantially faster with variance-adaptive proposals and that its mixing performance is just a constant factor worse than that of the exact Gibbs sampler, thus providing theoretical support to previously observed empirical behavior.

Reinforcement learning in partially observable environments requires agents to act under uncertainty from noisy, incomplete observations. Asymmetric actor-critic methods leverage privileged information during training to improve learning under these conditions. However, existing approaches typically assume full-state access during training. In this work, we challenge this assumption by proposing a novel actor-critic framework, called informed asymmetric actor-critic, that enables conditioning the critic on arbitrary privileged signals without requiring access to the full state. We show that policy gradients remain unbiased under this formulation, extending the theoretical foundation of asymmetric methods to the more general case of privileged partial information. To quantify the impact of such signals, we propose informativeness measures based on kernel methods and return prediction error, providing practical tools for evaluating training-time signals. We validate our approach empirically on benchmark navigation tasks and synthetic partially observable environments, showing that our informed asymmetric method improves learning efficiency and value estimation when informative privileged inputs are available. Our findings challenge the necessity of full-state access and open new directions for designing asymmetric reinforcement learning methods that are both practical and theoretically sound.

Mobile ground robots lacking prior knowledge of an environment must rely on sensor data to develop a model of their surroundings. In these scenarios, consistent identification of obstacles and terrain features can be difficult due to noise and algorithmic shortcomings, which can make it difficult for motion planning systems to generate safe motions. One particular difficulty to overcome is when regions of the cost map switch between being marked as obstacles and free space through successive planning cycles. One potential solution to this, which we refer to as Valid in Every Hypothesis (VEH), is for the planning system to plan motions that are guaranteed to be safe through a history of world models. Another approach is to track a history of world models, and adjust node costs according to the potential penalty of needing to reroute around previously hazardous areas. This work discusses three major iterations on this idea. The first iteration, called PEH, invokes a sub-search for every node expansion that crosses through a divergence point in the world models. The second and third iterations, called GEH and GEGRH respectively, defer the sub-search until after an edge expands into the goal region. GEGRH uses an additional step to revise the graph based on divergent nodes in each world. Initial results showed that, although PEH and GEH find more optimistic solutions than VEH, they are unable to generate solutions in less than one-second, which exceeds our requirements for field deployment. Analysis of results from a field experiment in an unstructured, off-road environment on a Clearpath Robotics Warthog UGV indicate that GEGRH finds lower cost trajectories and has faster average planning times than VEH. Compared to single-hypothesis (SH) search, where only the latest world model is considered, GEGRH generates more conservative plans with a small increase in average planning time.

The appearance of transformer-based models in Reinforcement Learning (RL) has expanded the horizons of possibilities in robotics tasks, but it has simultaneously brought a wide range of challenges during its implementation, especially in model-free online RL. Some of the existing learning algorithms cannot be easily implemented with transformer-based models due to the instability of the latter. In this paper, we propose a method that uses the Accelerator policy as a transformer's trainer. The Accelerator, a simpler and more stable model, interacts with the environment independently while simultaneously training the transformer through behavior cloning during the first stage of the proposed algorithm. In the second stage, the pre-trained transformer starts to interact with the environment in a fully online setting. As a result, this model-free algorithm accelerates the transformer in terms of its performance and helps it to train online in a more stable and faster way. By conducting experiments on both state-based and image-based ManiSkill environments, as well as on MuJoCo tasks in MDP and POMDP settings, we show that applying our algorithm not only enables stable training of transformers but also reduces training time on image-based environments by up to a factor of two. Moreover, it decreases the required replay buffer size in off-policy methods to 10-20 thousand, which significantly lowers the overall computational demands. The code is available at: github.com/Dzelezetsky/

When there exists an unlearnable source of randomness (noisy-TV) in the environment, a naively intrinsic reward driven exploring agent gets stuck at that source of randomness and fails at exploration. Intrinsic reward based on uncertainty estimation or distribution similarity, while eventually escapes noisy-TVs as time unfolds, suffers from poor sample efficiency and high computational cost. Inspired by recent findings from neuroscience that humans monitor their improvements during exploration, we propose a novel method for intrinsically-motivated exploration, named Learning Progress Monitoring (LPM). During exploration, LPM rewards model improvements instead of prediction error or novelty, effectively rewards the agent for observing learnable transitions rather than the unlearnable transitions. We introduce a dual-network design that uses an error model to predict the expected prediction error of the dynamics model in its previous iteration, and use the difference between the model errors of the current iteration and previous iteration to guide exploration. We theoretically show that the intrinsic reward of LPM is zero-equivariant and a monotone indicator of Information Gain (IG), and that the error model is necessary to achieve monotonicity correspondence with IG. We empirically compared LPM against state-of-the-art baselines in noisy environments based on MNIST, 3D maze with 160x120 RGB inputs, and Atari. Results show that LPM's intrinsic reward converges faster, explores more states in the maze experiment, and achieves higher extrinsic reward in Atari. This conceptually simple approach marks a shift-of-paradigm of noise-robust exploration. For code to reproduce our experiments, see https://github.com/Akuna23Matata/LPM_exploration

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)-assisted mobile crowdsensing (MCS) has emerged as a promising paradigm for data collection. However, challenges such as spectrum scarcity, device heterogeneity, and user mobility hinder efficient coordination of sensing, communication, and computation. To tackle these issues, we propose a joint optimization framework that integrates time slot partition for sensing, communication, and computation phases, resource allocation, and UAV 3D trajectory planning, aiming to maximize the amount of processed sensing data. The problem is formulated as a non-convex stochastic optimization and further modeled as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) that can be solved by multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (MADRL) algorithm. To overcome the limitations of conventional multi-layer perceptron (MLP) networks, we design a novel MADRL algorithm with hybrid actor network. The newly developed method is based on heterogeneous agent proximal policy optimization (HAPPO), empowered by convolutional neural networks (CNN) for feature extraction and Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KAN) to capture structured state-action dependencies. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that our proposed method achieves significant improvements in the amount of processed sensing data when compared with other benchmarks.