Forward inference techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo for probabilistic programming can be implemented in any programming language by creative use of standardized operating system functionality including processes, forking, mutexes, and shared memory. Exploiting this we have defined, developed, and tested a probabilistic programming language intermediate representation language we call probabilistic C, which itself can be compiled to machine code by standard compilers and linked to operating system libraries yielding an efficient, scalable, portable probabilistic programming compilation target. This opens up a new hardware and systems research path for optimizing probabilistic programming systems.

Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

This paper reviews recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric techniques for constructing and performing inference in infinite hidden Markov models. We focus on variants of Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models that enhance a posteriori state-persistence in particular. This paper also introduces a new Bayesian nonparametric framework for generating left-to-right and other structured, explicit-duration infinite hidden Markov models that we call the infinite structured hidden semi-Markov model.

Demand response (DR) for residential and small commercial buildings is estimated to account for as much as 65% of the total energy savings potential of DR, and previous work shows that a fully automated Energy Management System (EMS) is a necessary prerequisite to DR in these areas. In this paper, we propose a novel EMS formulation for DR problems in these sectors. Specifically, we formulate a fully automated EMS's rescheduling problem as a reinforcement learning (RL) problem, and argue that this RL problem can be approximately solved by decomposing it over device clusters. Compared with existing formulations, our new formulation (1) does not require explicitly modeling the user's dissatisfaction on job rescheduling, (2) enables the EMS to self-initiate jobs, (3) allows the user to initiate more flexible requests and (4) has a computational complexity linear in the number of devices. We also demonstrate the simulation results of applying Q-learning, one of the most popular and classical RL algorithms, to a representative example.

We study online learning of finite Markov decision process (MDP) problems when a side information vector is available. The problem is motivated by applications such as clinical trials, recommendation systems, etc. Such applications have an episodic structure, where each episode corresponds to a patient/customer. Our objective is to compete with the optimal dynamic policy that can take side information into account. We propose a computationally efficient algorithm and show that its regret is at most $O(\sqrt{T})$, where $T$ is the number of rounds. To best of our knowledge, this is the first regret bound for this setting.

Acyclic directed mixed graphs, also known as semi-Markov models represent the conditional independence structure induced on an observed margin by a DAG model with latent variables. In this paper we present a factorization criterion for these models that is equivalent to the global Markov property given by (the natural extension of) d-separation.

A Bayesian agent learns about the structure of a stationary process from ob- serving past outcomes. We prove that his predictions about the near future become ap- proximately those he would have made if he knew the long run empirical frequencies of the process.

Applying convolutional neural networks to large images is computationally expensive because the amount of computation scales linearly with the number of image pixels. We present a novel recurrent neural network model that is capable of extracting information from an image or video by adaptively selecting a sequence of regions or locations and only processing the selected regions at high resolution. Like convolutional neural networks, the proposed model has a degree of translation invariance built-in, but the amount of computation it performs can be controlled independently of the input image size. While the model is non-differentiable, it can be trained using reinforcement learning methods to learn task-specific policies. We evaluate our model on several image classification tasks, where it significantly outperforms a convolutional neural network baseline on cluttered images, and on a dynamic visual control problem, where it learns to track a simple object without an explicit training signal for doing so.

Many tasks in human environments require performing a sequence of navigation and manipulation steps involving objects. In unstructured human environments, the location and configuration of the objects involved often change in unpredictable ways. This requires a high-level planning strategy that is robust and flexible in an uncertain environment. We propose a novel dynamic planning strategy, which can be trained from a set of example sequences. High level tasks are expressed as a sequence of primitive actions or controllers (with appropriate parameters). Our score function, based on Markov Random Field (MRF), captures the relations between environment, controllers, and their arguments. By expressing the environment using sets of attributes, the approach generalizes well to unseen scenarios. We train the parameters of our MRF using a maximum margin learning method. We provide a detailed empirical validation of our overall framework demonstrating successful plan strategies for a variety of tasks.

We reduce a broad class of machine learning problems, usually addressed by EM or sampling, to the problem of finding the $k$ extremal rays spanning the conical hull of a data point set. These $k$ "anchors" lead to a global solution and a more interpretable model that can even outperform EM and sampling on generalization error. To find the $k$ anchors, we propose a novel divide-and-conquer learning scheme "DCA" that distributes the problem to $\mathcal O(k\log k)$ same-type sub-problems on different low-D random hyperplanes, each can be solved by any solver. For the 2D sub-problem, we present a non-iterative solver that only needs to compute an array of cosine values and its max/min entries. DCA also provides a faster subroutine for other methods to check whether a point is covered in a conical hull, which improves algorithm design in multiple dimensions and brings significant speedup to learning. We apply our method to GMM, HMM, LDA, NMF and subspace clustering, then show its competitive performance and scalability over other methods on rich datasets.