Real-time detection of viruses in the field of healthcare and biodefense has become a very important problem in recent times. In this work, we follow the methodology of realtime electrical detection of viruses with nanowire field-effect transistors described in Patolsky et al. [1]. In this method, nanowires are coated with antibodies of a particular kind of virus. The main idea is as follows: if that type of virus is present in the environment, then the virus molecules would dock with the antibody molecules on the nanowire and change the conductance of the nanowire. Signals of the nanowire conductance as a function of time are typically analyzed to figure out whether the virus has docked to the nanowire, thereby detecting the presence of the virus.

We introduce Church, a universal language for describing stochastic generative processes. Church is based on the Lisp model of lambda calculus, containing a pure Lisp as its deterministic subset. The semantics of Church is defined in terms of evaluation histories and conditional distributions on such histories. Church also includes a novel language construct, the stochastic memoizer, which enables simple description of many complex non-parametric models. We illustrate language features through several examples, including: a generalized Bayes net in which parameters cluster over trials, infinite PCFGs, planning by inference, and various non-parametric clustering models. Finally, we show how to implement query on any Church program, exactly and approximately, using Monte Carlo techniques.

Markov processes are widely used to generate sequences that imitate a given style, using random walk. Random walk generates sequences by iteratively concatenating states to prefixes of length equal or less than the given Markov order}. However, at higher orders, Markov chains tend to replicate chunks of the corpus with a size possibly higher than the order, a primary form of plagiarism. The Markov order defines a maximum length for training but not for generation. In the framework of constraint satisfaction (CSP), we introduce MaxOrder. This global constraint ensures that generated sequences do not include chunks larger than a given maximum order. We exhibit an automaton that recognises the solution set, with a size linear in the size of the corpus. We propose a linear-time procedure to generate this automaton from a corpus and a given max order. We then use this automaton to achieve generalised arc consistency for the MaxOrder constraint, holding on a sequence of size n, in O(n.T) time, where T is the size of the automaton. We illustrate our approach by generating text sequences from text corpora with a maximum order guarantee, effectively controlling plagiarism.

This paper defines the "Single Agent in a Team Decision" (SATD) problem. SATD differs from prior multi-agent communication problems in the assumptions it makes about teammates' knowledge of each other's plans and possible observations. The paper proposes a novel integrated logical-decision-theoretic approach to solving SATD problems, called MDP-PRT. Evaluation of MDP-PRT shows that it outperforms a previously proposed communication mechanism that did not consider the timing of communication and compares favorably with a coordinated Dec-POMDP solution that uses knowledge about all possible observations.

As a promising alternative to using standard (often intractable) planning techniques with Bellman equations, we propose an interesting method of optimizing POMDP controllers by probabilistic inference in a novel equivalent single-DBN generative model. Our inference approach to POMDP planning allows for (1) for application of various techniques for probabilistic inference in single graphical models, and (2) for exploiting the factored structure in a controller architecture to take advantage of natural structural constrains of planning problems and represent them compactly. Our contributions can be summarized as follows: (1) we designed a novel single-DBN generative model that ensures that the task of probabilistic inference is equivalent to the original problem of optimizing POMDP controllers, and (2) we developed several inference approaches to approximate the value of the policy when exact inference methods are not tractable to solve large-size problems with complex graphical models. The proposed approaches to policy optimization by probabilistic inference are evaluated on several POMDP benchmark problems and the performance of the implemented approximation algorithms is compared.

One of the most important crowdsourcing topics is to study the effective quality control methods so as to reduce the cost and to guarantee the quality of task processing. As an effective approach, iterative improvement workflow is known to choose the best result from multiple workflows. However, for complex crowdsourcing tasks that consists of a certain number of subtasks under some specific constraints, but cannot be split into subtasks to be crowdsourced, the approach merely considers the best workflow without integrating the contributions of all workflows, which potentially results in extra costs for more iterations. In this paper, we propose an assembly model to integrate the best output of subtasks from different workflows. Moreover, we devise an efficient iterative method based on POMDP to improve the quality of assembled output. Empirical studies confirms the superiority of our proposed model.

A framework capable of computing optimal control policies for a continuous system in the presence of both action and environment uncertainty is presented in this work. The framework decomposes the planning problem into two stages: an offline phase that reasons only over action uncertainty and an online phase that quickly reacts to the uncertain environment. Offline, a bounded-parameter Markov decision process (BMDP) is employed to model the evolution of the stochastic system over a discretization of the environment. Online, an optimal control policy over the BMDP is computed. Upon the discovery of an unknown environment feature during policy execution, the BMDP is updated and the optimal control policy is efficiently recomputed. Depending on the desired quality of the control policy, a suite of methods is presented to incorporate new information into the BMDP with varying degrees of detail online. Experiments confirm that the framework recomputes high-quality policies in seconds and is orders of magnitude faster than existing methods.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a principled mathematical framework for modeling autonomous decision-making problems. A POMDP solution is often represented by a value function comprised of a set of vectors. In the case of factored models, the size of these vectors grows exponentially with the number of state factors, leading to scalability issues. We consider an approximate value function representation based on a linear combination of basis functions. In particular, we present a backup operator that can be used in any point-based POMDP solver. Furthermore, we show how under certain conditions independence between observation factors can be exploited for large computational gains. We experimentally verify our contributions and show that they have the potential to improve point-based methods in policy quality and solution size.

Exchangeability is a central notion in statistics and probability theory. The assumption that an infinite sequence of data points is exchangeable is at the core of Bayesian statistics. However, finite exchangeability as a statistical property that renders probabilistic inference tractable is less well-understood. We develop a theory of finite exchangeability and its relation to tractable probabilistic inference. The theory is complementary to that of independence and conditional independence. We show that tractable inference in probabilistic models with high treewidth and millions of variables can be explained with the notion of finite (partial) exchangeability. We also show that existing lifted inference algorithms implicitly utilize a combination of conditional independence and partial exchangeability.

Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) algorithms are a popular approach to online decision-making in Markov decision processes (MDPs). These algorithms can, however, perform poorly in MDPs with high stochastic branching factors. In this paper, we study state aggregation as a way of reducing stochastic branching in tree search. Prior work has studied formal properties of MDP state aggregation in the context of dynamic programming and reinforcement learning, but little attention has been paid to state aggregation in MCTS. Our main result is a performance loss bound for a class of value function-based state aggregation criteria in expectimax search trees. We also consider how to construct MCTS algorithms that operate in the abstract state space but require a simulator of the ground dynamics only. We find that trajectory sampling algorithms like UCT can be adapted easily, but that sparse sampling algorithms present difficulties. As a proof of concept, we experimentally confirm that state aggregation can improve the finite-sample performance of UCT.