We show how to estimate a model's test error from unlabeled data, on distributions very different from the training distribution, while assuming only that certain conditional independencies are preserved between train and test. We do not need to assume that the optimal predictor is the same between train and test, or that the true distribution lies in any parametric family. We can also efficiently differentiate the error estimate to perform unsupervised discriminative learning. Our technical tool is the method of moments, which allows us to exploit conditional independencies in the absence of a fully-specified model. Our framework encompasses a large family of losses including the log and exponential loss, and extends to structured output settings such as hidden Markov models.

We consider the problem of change-point detection in multivariate time-series. The multivariate distribution of the observations is supposed to follow a graphical model, whose graph and parameters are affected by abrupt changes throughout time. We demonstrate that it is possible to perform exact Bayesian inference whenever one considers a simple class of undirected graphs called spanning trees as possible structures. We are then able to integrate on the graph and segmentation spaces at the same time by combining classical dynamic programming with algebraic results pertaining to spanning trees. In particular, we show that quantities such as posterior distributions for change-points or posterior edge probabilities over time can efficiently be obtained. We illustrate our results on both synthetic and experimental data arising from biology and neuroscience.

The task of dialog management is commonly decomposed into two sequential subtasks: dialog state tracking and dialog policy learning. In an end-to-end dialog system, the aim of dialog state tracking is to accurately estimate the true dialog state from noisy observations produced by the speech recognition and the natural language understanding modules. The state tracking task is primarily meant to support a dialog policy. From a probabilistic perspective, this is achieved by maintaining a posterior distribution over hidden dialog states composed of a set of context dependent variables. Once a dialog policy is learned, it strives to select an optimal dialog act given the estimated dialog state and a defined reward function. This paper introduces a novel method of dialog state tracking based on a bilinear algebric decomposition model that provides an efficient inference schema through collective matrix factorization. We evaluate the proposed approach on the second Dialog State Tracking Challenge (DSTC-2) dataset and we show that the proposed tracker gives encouraging results compared to the state-of-the-art trackers that participated in this standard benchmark. Finally, we show that the prediction schema is computationally efficient in comparison to the previous approaches.

We consider interactive algorithms in the pool-based setting, and in the stream-based setting. Interactive algorithms observe suggested elements (representing actions or queries), and interactively select some of them and receive responses. Pool-based algorithms can select elements at any order, while stream-based algorithms observe elements in sequence, and can only select elements immediately after observing them. We assume that the suggested elements are generated independently from some source distribution, and ask what is the stream size required for emulating a pool algorithm with a given pool size. We provide algorithms and matching lower bounds for general pool algorithms, and for utility-based pool algorithms. We further show that a maximal gap between the two settings exists also in the special case of active learning for binary classification.

In this work, we consider compressed sensing reconstruction from $M$ measurements of $K$-sparse structured signals which do not possess a writable correlation model. Assuming that a generative statistical model, such as a Boltzmann machine, can be trained in an unsupervised manner on example signals, we demonstrate how this signal model can be used within a Bayesian framework of signal reconstruction. By deriving a message-passing inference for general distribution restricted Boltzmann machines, we are able to integrate these inferred signal models into approximate message passing for compressed sensing reconstruction. Finally, we show for the MNIST dataset that this approach can be very effective, even for $M < K$.

The environment is partially observable and will never be fully observable, due to a lack of information. Does anyone know of any models suitable for learning such a value function?

Gibbs sampling is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling technique that iteratively samples variables from their conditional distributions. There are two common scan orders for the variables: random scan and systematic scan. Due to the benefits of locality in hardware, systematic scan is commonly used, even though most statistical guarantees are only for random scan. While it has been conjectured that the mixing times of random scan and systematic scan do not differ by more than a logarithmic factor, we show by counterexample that this is not the case, and we prove that that the mixing times do not differ by more than a polynomial factor under mild conditions. To prove these relative bounds, we introduce a method of augmenting the state space to study systematic scan using conductance.

Recently a variety of LSTM-based conditional language models (LM) have been applied across a range of language generation tasks. In this work we study various model architectures and different ways to represent and aggregate the source information in an end-to-end neural dialogue system framework. A method called snapshot learning is also proposed to facilitate learning from supervised sequential signals by applying a companion cross-entropy objective function to the conditioning vector. The experimental and analytical results demonstrate firstly that competition occurs between the conditioning vector and the LM, and the differing architectures provide different trade-offs between the two. Secondly, the discriminative power and transparency of the conditioning vector is key to providing both model interpretability and better performance. Thirdly, snapshot learning leads to consistent performance improvements independent of which architecture is used.

One is going to give a historical overview about GoogleBrain and analyse the pattern, then we will conclude our finding about the current situation and future changes in search engine algorithm. Back in 2006 there were some interests in implementing artificial intelligence in Google search engine algorithm. A few years later in 2014, GoogleBrain was established after acquisition of DeepMind, a British artificial intelligence company which was founded in 2010. They worked on how to play video games based on machine learning and artificial neural networks (ANNs). The smart artificial intelligence revolution can recognize patterns in digital representations of sounds, images and data.

Dynamic functional connectivity (FC) has in recent years become a topic of interest in the neuroimaging community. Several models and methods exist for both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and electroencephalography (EEG), and the results point towards the conclusion that FC exhibits dynamic changes. The existing approaches modeling dynamic connectivity have primarily been based on time-windowing the data and k-means clustering. We propose a non-parametric generative model for dynamic FC in fMRI that does not rely on specifying window lengths and number of dynamic states. Rooted in Bayesian statistical modeling we use the predictive likelihood to investigate if the model can discriminate between a motor task and rest both within and across subjects. We further investigate what drives dynamic states using the model on the entire data collated across subjects and task/rest. We find that the number of states extracted are driven by subject variability and preprocessing differences while the individual states are almost purely defined by either task or rest. This questions how we in general interpret dynamic FC and points to the need for more research on what drives dynamic FC.