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 Markov Models


Goal-Oriented Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Decentralized Agent Teams

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Connected and autonomous vehicles across land, water, and air must often operate in dynamic, unpredictable environments with limited communication, no centralized control, and partial observability. These real-world constraints pose significant challenges for coordination, particularly when vehicles pursue individual objectives. To address this, we propose a decentralized Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) framework that enables vehicles, acting as agents, to communicate selectively based on local goals and observations. This goal-aware communication strategy allows agents to share only relevant information, enhancing collaboration while respecting visibility limitations. We validate our approach in complex multi-agent navigation tasks featuring obstacles and dynamic agent populations. Results show that our method significantly improves task success rates and reduces time-to-goal compared to non-cooperative baselines. Moreover, task performance remains stable as the number of agents increases, demonstrating scalability. These findings highlight the potential of decentralized, goal-driven MARL to support effective coordination in realistic multi-vehicle systems operating across diverse domains.


Conformal Constrained Policy Optimization for Cost-Effective LLM Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While large language models (LLMs) have recently made tremendous progress towards solving challenging AI problems, they have done so at increasingly steep computational and API costs. We propose a novel strategy where we combine multiple LLM models with varying cost/accuracy tradeoffs in an agentic manner, where models and tools are run in sequence as determined by an orchestration model to minimize cost subject to a user-specified level of reliability; this constraint is formalized using conformal prediction to provide guarantees. To solve this problem, we propose Conformal Constrained Policy Optimization (CCPO), a training paradigm that integrates constrained policy optimization with off-policy reinforcement learning and recent advances in online conformal prediction. CCPO jointly optimizes a cost-aware policy (score function) and an adaptive threshold. Across two multi-hop question answering benchmarks, CCPO achieves up to a 30% cost reduction compared to other cost-aware baselines and LLM-guided methods without compromising reliability. Our approach provides a principled and practical framework for deploying LLM agents that are significantly more cost-effective while maintaining reliability.


Enhancing Reinforcement Learning in 3D Environments through Semantic Segmentation: A Case Study in ViZDoom

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning (RL) in 3D environments with high-dimensional sensory input poses two major challenges: (1) the high memory consumption induced by memory buffers required to stabilise learning, and (2) the complexity of learning in partially observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). This project addresses these challenges by proposing two novel input representations: SS-only and RGB+SS, both employing semantic segmentation on RGB colour images. Experiments were conducted in deathmatches of ViZDoom, utilizing perfect segmentation results for controlled evaluation. Our results showed that SS-only was able to reduce the memory consumption of memory buffers by at least 66.6%, and up to 98.6% when a vectorisable lossless compression technique with minimal overhead such as run-length encoding is applied. Meanwhile, RGB+SS significantly enhances RL agents' performance with the additional semantic information provided. Furthermore, we explored density-based heatmapping as a tool to visualise RL agents' movement patterns and evaluate their suitability for data collection. A brief comparison with a previous approach highlights how our method overcame common pitfalls in applying semantic segmentation in 3D environments like ViZDoom.


Convergence of Multiagent Learning Systems for Traffic control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Rapid urbanization in cities like Bangalore has led to severe traffic congestion, making efficient Traffic Signal Control (TSC) essential. Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), often modeling each traffic signal as an independent agent using Q-learning, has emerged as a promising strategy to reduce average commuter delays. While prior work Prashant L A et. al has empirically demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach, a rigorous theoretical analysis of its stability and convergence properties in the context of traffic control has not been explored. This paper bridges that gap by focusing squarely on the theoretical basis of this multi-agent algorithm. We investigate the convergence problem inherent in using independent learners for the cooperative TSC task. Utilizing stochastic approximation methods, we formally analyze the learning dynamics. The primary contribution of this work is the proof that the specific multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithm for traffic control is proven to converge under the given conditions extending it from single agent convergence proofs for asynchronous value iteration.


Good-for-MDP State Reduction for Stochastic LTL Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study stochastic planning problems in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with goals specified in Linear Temporal Logic (LTL). The state-of-the-art approach transforms LTL formulas into good-for-MDP (GFM) automata, which feature a restricted form of nondeterminism. These automata are then composed with the MDP, allowing the agent to resolve the nondeterminism during policy synthesis. A major factor affecting the scalability of this approach is the size of the generated automata. In this paper, we propose a novel GFM state-space reduction technique that significantly reduces the number of automata states. Our method employs a sophisticated chain of transformations, leveraging recent advances in good-for-games minimisation developed for adversarial settings. In addition to our theoretical contributions, we present empirical results demonstrating the practical effectiveness of our state-reduction technique. Furthermore, we introduce a direct construction method for formulas of the form $\mathsf{G}\mathsf{F}ฯ†$, where $ฯ†$ is a co-safety formula. This construction is provably single-exponential in the worst case, in contrast to the general doubly-exponential complexity. Our experiments confirm the scalability advantages of this specialised construction.


Constrained and Robust Policy Synthesis with Satisfiability-Modulo-Probabilistic-Model-Checking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ability to compute reward-optimal policies for given and known finite Markov decision processes (MDPs) underpins a variety of applications across planning, controller synthesis, and verification. However, we often want policies (1) to be robust, i.e., they perform well on perturbations of the MDP and (2) to satisfy additional structural constraints regarding, e.g., their representation or implementation cost. Computing such robust and constrained policies is indeed computationally more challenging. This paper contributes the first approach to effectively compute robust policies subject to arbitrary structural constraints using a flexible and efficient framework. We achieve flexibility by allowing to express our constraints in a first-order theory over a set of MDPs, while the root for our efficiency lies in the tight integration of satisfi-ability solvers to handle the combinatorial nature of the problem and probabilistic model checking algorithms to handle the analysis of MDPs. Experiments on a few hundred benchmarks demonstrate the feasibility for constrained and robust policy synthesis and the competitiveness with state-of-the-art methods for various fragments of the problem.


What One Cannot, Two Can: Two-Layer Transformers Provably Represent Induction Heads on Any-Order Markov Chains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In-context learning (ICL) is a hallmark capability of transformers, through which trained models learn to adapt to new tasks by leveraging information from the input context. Prior work has shown that ICL emerges in transformers due to the presence of special circuits called induction heads. Given the equivalence between induction heads and conditional k-grams, a recent line of work modeling sequential inputs as Markov processes has revealed the fundamental impact of model depth on its ICL capabilities: while a two-layer transformer can efficiently represent a conditional 1-gram model, its single-layer counterpart cannot solve the task unless it is exponentially large. However, for higher order Markov sources, the best known constructions require at least three layers (each with a single attention head) - leaving open the question: can a two-layer single-head transformer represent any kth-order Markov process? In this paper, we precisely address this and theoretically show that a two-layer transformer with one head per layer can indeed represent any conditional k-gram. Thus, our result provides the tightest known characterization of the interplay between transformer depth and Markov order for ICL. Building on this, we further analyze the learning dynamics of our two-layer construction, focusing on a simplified variant for first-order Markov chains, illustrating how effective in-context representations emerge during training. Together, these results deepen our current understanding of transformer-based ICL and illustrate how even shallow architectures can surprisingly exhibit strong ICL capabilities on structured sequence modeling tasks.


Drone Swarm Energy Management

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This note presents an analytical framework for decision-making in drone swarm systems operating under uncertainty, based on the integration of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP) with Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) reinforcement learning. The proposed approach enables adaptive control and cooperative behavior of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) within a cognitive AI platform, where each agent learns optimal energy management and navigation policies from dynamic environmental states. We extend the standard DDPG architecture with a belief-state representation derived from Bayesian filtering, allowing for robust decision-making in partially observable environments. In this paper, for the Gaussian case, we numerically compare the performance of policies derived from DDPG to optimal policies for discretized versions of the original continuous problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the POMDP-DDPG-based swarm control model significantly improves mission success rates and energy efficiency compared to baseline methods. The developed framework supports distributed learning and decision coordination across multiple agents, providing a foundation for scalable cognitive swarm autonomy. The outcomes of this research contribute to the advancement of energy-aware control algorithms for intelligent multi-agent systems and can be applied in security, environmental monitoring, and infrastructure inspection scenarios.


Robust and Efficient Communication in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has made significant strides in enabling coordinated behaviors among autonomous agents. However, most existing approaches assume that communication is instantaneous, reliable, and has unlimited bandwidth; these conditions are rarely met in real-world deployments. This survey systematically reviews recent advances in robust and efficient communication strategies for MARL under realistic constraints, including message perturbations, transmission delays, and limited bandwidth. Furthermore, because the challenges of low-latency reliability, bandwidth-intensive data sharing, and communication-privacy trade-offs are central to practical MARL systems, we focus on three applications involving cooperative autonomous driving, distributed simultaneous localization and mapping, and federated learning. Finally, we identify key open challenges and future research directions, advocating a unified approach that co-designs communication, learning, and robustness to bridge the gap between theoretical MARL models and practical implementations.


Fast and Expressive Multi-Token Prediction with Probabilistic Circuits

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-token prediction (MTP) is a prominent strategy to significantly speed up generation in large language models (LLMs), including byte-level LLMs, which are tokeniser-free but prohibitively slow. However, existing MTP methods often sacrifice expressiveness by assuming independence between future tokens. In this work, we investigate the trade-off between expressiveness and latency in MTP within the framework of probabilistic circuits (PCs). Our framework, named MTPC, allows one to explore different ways to encode the joint distributions over future tokens by selecting different circuit architectures, generalising classical models such as (hierarchical) mixture models, hidden Markov models and tensor networks. We show the efficacy of MTPC by retrofitting existing byte-level LLMs, such as EvaByte. Our experiments show that, when combined with speculative decoding, MTPC significantly speeds up generation compared to MTP with independence assumptions, while guaranteeing to retain the performance of the original verifier LLM. We also rigorously study the optimal trade-off between expressiveness and latency when exploring the possible parameterisations of MTPC, such as PC architectures and partial layer sharing between the verifier and draft LLMs.