Markov Models
Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs
He, Yulong, Proskurnikov, Anton V., Sedakov, Artem
Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.
Simulated Human Learning in a Dynamic, Partially-Observed, Time-Series Environment
Jiang, Jeffrey, Hong, Kevin, Kuczynski, Emily, Pottie, Gregory
While intelligent tutoring systems (ITSs) can use information from past students to personalize instruction, each new student is unique. Moreover, the education problem is inherently difficult because the learning process is only partially observable. We therefore develop a dynamic, time-series environment to simulate a classroom setting, with student-teacher interventions - including tutoring sessions, lectures, and exams. In particular, we design the simulated environment to allow for varying levels of probing interventions that can gather more information. Then, we develop reinforcement learning ITSs that combine learning the individual state of students while pulling from population information through the use of probing interventions. These interventions can reduce the difficulty of student estimation, but also introduce a cost-benefit decision to find a balance between probing enough to get accurate estimates and probing so often that it becomes disruptive to the student. We compare the efficacy of standard RL algorithms with several greedy rules-based heuristic approaches to find that they provide different solutions, but with similar results. We also highlight the difficulty of the problem with increasing levels of hidden information, and the boost that we get if we allow for probing interventions. We show the flexibility of both heuristic and RL policies with regards to changing student population distributions, finding that both are flexible, but RL policies struggle to help harder classes. Finally, we test different course structures with non-probing policies and we find that our policies are able to boost the performance of quiz and midterm structures more than we can in a finals-only structure, highlighting the benefit of having additional information.
An Alignment-Based Approach to Learning Motions from Demonstrations
Cuellar, Alex, Fourie, Christopher K, Shah, Julie A
Personal use of this material is permitted. Abstract--Learning from Demonstration (LfD) has shown to provide robots with fundamental motion skills for a variety of domains. V arious branches of LfD research (e.g., learned dynamical systems and movement primitives) can generally be classified into "time-dependent" or "time-independent" systems. Each provides fundamental benefits and drawbacks - time-independent methods cannot learn overlapping trajectories, while time-dependence can result in undesirable behavior under perturbation. This paper introduces Cluster Alignment for Learned Motions (CALM), an LfD framework dependent upon an alignment with a representative "mean" trajectory of demonstrated motions rather than pure time-or state-dependence. We discuss the convergence properties of CALM, introduce an alignment technique able to handle the shifts in alignment possible under perturbation, and utilize demonstration clustering to generate multi-modal behavior . We show how CALM mitigates the drawbacks of time-dependent and time-independent techniques on 2D datasets and implement our system on a 7-DoF robot learning tasks in three domains. S robots are introduced in industry and domestic settings, there is increasing need for robots to learn fundamental motions for given tasks.
Z-Merge: Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for On-Ramp Merging with Zone-Specific V2X Traffic Information
Ibork, Yassine, Won, Myounggyu, Das, Lokesh
Ramp merging is a critical and challenging task for autonomous vehicles (A Vs), particularly in mixed traffic environments with human-driven vehicles (HVs). Existing approaches typically rely on either lane-changing or inter-vehicle gap creation strategies based solely on local or neighboring information, often leading to sub-optimal performance in terms of safety and traffic efficiency. In this paper, we present a V2X (vehicle-to-everything communication)-assisted Multiagent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) framework for on-ramp merging that effectively coordinates the complex interplay between lane-changing and inter-vehicle gap adaptation strategies by utilizing zone-specific global information available from a roadside unit (RSU). The merging control problem is formulated as a Multiagent Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (MA-POMDP), where agents leverage both local and global observations through V2X communication. To support both discrete and continuous control decisions, we design a hybrid action space and adopt a parameterized deep Q-learning approach. Extensive simulations, integrating the SUMO traffic simulator and the MOSAIC V2X simulator, demonstrate that our framework significantly improves merging success rate, traffic efficiency, and road safety across diverse traffic scenarios.
Best-Effort Policies for Robust Markov Decision Processes
Abate, Alessandro, Badings, Thom, De Giacomo, Giuseppe, Fabiano, Francesco
We study the common generalization of Markov decision processes (MDPs) with sets of transition probabilities, known as robust MDPs (RMDPs). A standard goal in RMDPs is to compute a policy that maximizes the expected return under an adversarial choice of the transition probabilities. If the uncertainty in the probabilities is independent between the states, known as s-rectangularity, such optimal robust policies can be computed efficiently using robust value iteration. However, there might still be multiple optimal robust policies, which, while equivalent with respect to the worst-case, reflect different expected returns under non-adversarial choices of the transition probabilities. Hence, we propose a refined policy selection criterion for RMDPs, drawing inspiration from the notions of dominance and best-effort in game theory. Instead of seeking a policy that only maximizes the worst-case expected return, we additionally require the policy to achieve a maximal expected return under different (i.e., not fully adversarial) transition probabilities. We call such a policy an optimal robust best-effort (ORBE) policy. We prove that ORBE policies always exist, characterize their structure, and present an algorithm to compute them with a manageable overhead compared to standard robust value iteration. ORBE policies offer a principled tie-breaker among optimal robust policies. Numerical experiments show the feasibility of our approach.
Energy-based generator matching: A neural sampler for general state space
Woo, Dongyeop, Kim, Minsu, Kim, Minkyu, Seong, Kiyoung, Ahn, Sungsoo
We propose Energy-based generator matching (EGM), a modality-agnostic approach to train generative models from energy functions in the absence of data. Extending the recently proposed generator matching, EGM enables training of arbitrary continuous-time Markov processes, e.g., diffusion, flow, and jump, and can generate data from continuous, discrete, and a mixture of two modalities. To this end, we propose estimating the generator matching loss using self-normalized importance sampling with an additional bootstrapping trick to reduce variance in the importance weight. We validate EGM on both discrete and multimodal tasks up to 100 and 20 dimensions, respectively.
Optimal control of the future via prospective learning with control
Bai, Yuxin, Acharyya, Aranyak, De Silva, Ashwin, Shen, Zeyu, Hassett, James, Vogelstein, Joshua T.
Optimal control of the future is the next frontier for AI. Current approaches to this problem are typically rooted in either reinforcement learning (RL). While powerful, this learning framework is mathematically distinct from supervised learning, which has been the main workhorse for the recent achievements in AI. Moreover, RL typically operates in a stationary environment with episodic resets, limiting its utility to more realistic settings. Here, we extend supervised learning to address learning to control in non-stationary, reset-free environments. Using this framework, called ''Prospective Learning with Control (PL+C)'', we prove that under certain fairly general assumptions, empirical risk minimization (ERM) asymptotically achieves the Bayes optimal policy. We then consider a specific instance of prospective learning with control, foraging -- which is a canonical task for any mobile agent -- be it natural or artificial. We illustrate that modern RL algorithms fail to learn in these non-stationary reset-free environments, and even with modifications, they are orders of magnitude less efficient than our prospective foraging agents.
Energy-Based Modelling for Discrete and Mixed Data via Heat Equations on Structured Spaces
However, training EBMs on data in discrete or mixed state spaces poses significant challenges due to the lack of robust and fast sampling methods. In this work, we propose to train discrete EBMs with Energy Discrepancy, a loss function which only requires the evaluation of the energy function at data points and their perturbed counterparts, thus eliminating the need for Markov chain Monte Carlo.