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 Markov Models




Lifted Weighted Mini-Bucket

Neural Information Processing Systems

Many graphical models, such as Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) with evidence, possess highly symmetric substructures but no exact symmetries. Unfortunately, there are few principled methods that exploit these symmetric substructures to perform efficient approximate inference. In this paper, we present a lifted variant of the Weighted Mini-Bucket elimination algorithm which provides a principled way to (i) exploit the highly symmetric substructure of MLN models, and (ii) incorporate high-order inference terms which are necessary for high quality approximate inference. Our method has significant control over the accuracy-time trade-off of the approximation, allowing us to generate any-time approximations. Experimental results demonstrate the utility of this class of approximations, especially in models with strong repulsive potentials.



SkyRL-Agent: Efficient RL Training for Multi-turn LLM Agent

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce SkyRL-Agent, a framework for efficient, multi-turn, long-horizon agent training and evaluation. It provides efficient asynchronous dispatching, lightweight tool integration, and flexible backend interoperability, enabling seamless use with existing RL frameworks such as SkyRL-train, VeRL, and Tinker. Using SkyRL-Agent, we train SA-SWE-32B, a software engineering agent trained from Qwen3-32B (24.4% Pass@1) purely with reinforcement learning. We introduce two key components: an optimized asynchronous pipeline dispatcher that achieves a 1.55x speedup over naive asynchronous batching, and a tool-enhanced training recipe leveraging an AST-based search tool to facilitate code navigation, boost rollout Pass@K, and improve training efficiency. Together, these optimizations enable SA-SWE-32B to reach 39.4% Pass@1 on SWE-Bench Verified with more than 2x cost reduction compared to prior models reaching similar performance. Despite being trained solely on SWE tasks, SA-SWE-32B generalizes effectively to other agentic tasks, including Terminal-Bench, BrowseComp-Plus, and WebArena. We further demonstrate SkyRL-Agent's extensibility through case studies on deep research, computer use, and memory agents, each trained using a different training backend.


Robot Metacognition: Decision Making with Confidence for Tool Invention

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robots today often miss a key ingredient of truly intelligent behavior: the ability to reflect on their own cognitive processes and decisions. In humans, this self-monitoring or metacognition is crucial for learning, decision making and problem solving. For instance, they can evaluate how confident they are in performing a task, thus regulating their own behavior and allocating proper resources. Taking inspiration from neuroscience, we propose a robot metacognition architecture centered on confidence (a second-order judgment on decisions) and we demonstrate it on the use case of autonomous tool invention. We propose the use of confidence as a metacognitive measure within the robot decision making scheme. Confidence-informed robots can evaluate the reliability of their decisions, improving their robustness during real-world physical deployment. This form of robotic metacognition emphasizes embodied action monitoring as a means to achieve better informed decisions. We also highlight potential applications and research directions for robot metacognition.


Learning Tractable Distributions Of Language Model Continuations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Controlled language generation conditions text on sequence-level constraints (for example, syntax, style, or safety). These constraints may depend on future tokens, which makes directly conditioning an autoregressive language model (LM) generally intractable. Prior work uses tractable surrogates such as hidden Markov models (HMMs) to approximate the distribution over continuations and adjust the model's next-token logits at decoding time. However, we find that these surrogates are often weakly context aware, which reduces query quality. We propose Learning to Look Ahead (LTLA), a hybrid approach that pairs the same base language model for rich prefix encoding with a fixed tractable surrogate model that computes exact continuation probabilities. Two efficiency pitfalls arise when adding neural context: (i) naively rescoring the prefix with every candidate next token requires a sweep over the entire vocabulary at each step, and (ii) predicting fresh surrogate parameters for each prefix, although tractable at a single step, forces recomputation of future probabilities for every new prefix and eliminates reuse. LTLA avoids both by using a single batched HMM update to account for all next-token candidates at once, and by conditioning only the surrogate's latent state prior on the LM's hidden representations while keeping the surrogate decoder fixed, so computations can be reused across prefixes. Empirically, LTLA attains higher conditional likelihood than an unconditional HMM, approximates continuation distributions for vision-language models where a standalone HMM cannot encode visual context, and improves constraint satisfaction at comparable fluency on controlled-generation tasks, with minimal inference overhead.


MACIE: Multi-Agent Causal Intelligence Explainer for Collective Behavior Understanding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning systems are used in safety critical applications. Understanding why agents make decisions and how they achieve collective behavior is crucial. Existing explainable AI methods struggle in multi agent settings. They fail to attribute collective outcomes to individuals, quantify emergent behaviors, or capture complex interactions. We present MACIE Multi Agent Causal Intelligence Explainer, a framework combining structural causal models, interventional counterfactuals, and Shapley values to provide comprehensive explanations. MACIE addresses three questions. First, each agent's causal contribution using interventional attribution scores. Second, system level emergent intelligence through synergy metrics separating collective effects from individual contributions. Third, actionable explanations using natural language narratives synthesizing causal insights. We evaluate MACIE across four MARL scenarios: cooperative, competitive, and mixed motive. Results show accurate outcome attribution, mean phi_i equals 5.07, standard deviation less than 0.05, detection of positive emergence in cooperative tasks, synergy index up to 0.461, and efficient computation, 0.79 seconds per dataset on CPU. MACIE uniquely combines causal rigor, emergence quantification, and multi agent support while remaining practical for real time use. This represents a step toward interpretable, trustworthy, and accountable multi agent AI.


From Static to Adaptive Defense: Federated Multi-Agent Deep Reinforcement Learning-Driven Moving Target Defense Against DoS Attacks in UAV Swarm Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--The proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles (UA Vs) has enabled a wide range of mission-critical applications and is becoming a cornerstone of low-altitude networks, supporting smart cities, emergency response, and more. However, the open wireless environment, dynamic topology, and resource constraints of UA Vs expose low-altitude networks to severe Denial-of-Service (DoS) threats, undermining their reliability and security. Traditional defense approaches, which rely on fixed configurations or centralized decision-making, cannot effectively respond to the rapidly changing conditions in UA V swarm environments. T o address these challenges, we propose a novel federated multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (FMADRL)- driven moving target defense (MTD) framework for proactive DoS mitigation in low-altitude networks. Specifically, we design lightweight and coordinated MTD mechanisms, including leader switching, route mutation, and frequency hopping, to disrupt attacker efforts and enhance network resilience. The defense problem is formulated as a multi-agent partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), capturing the uncertain nature of UA V swarms under attack. Each UA V is equipped with a policy agent that autonomously selects MTD actions based on partial observations and local experiences. By employing a policy gradient-based FMADRL algorithm, UA Vs collaboratively optimize their policies via reward-weighted aggregation, enabling distributed learning without sharing raw data and thus reducing communication overhead. Extensive simulations demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving up to a 34.6% improvement in attack mitigation rate, a reduction in average recovery time of up to 94.6%, and decreases in energy consumption and defense cost by as much as 29.3% and 98.3%, respectively, under various DoS attack strategies. These results highlight the potential of intelligent, distributed defense mechanisms to protect low-altitude networks, paving the way for reliable and scalable low-altitude economy. HE rapid development of unmanned aerial vehicle (UA V) technology [1] has enabled a wide range of applications, including environmental monitoring, disaster response, precision agriculture, logistics, aerial photography, and intelligent surveillance [2]. Y uyang Zhou, Guang Cheng, Kang Du, Zihan Chen, Tian Qin, and Y uyu Zhao are with the School of Cyber Science and Engineering, Southeast University, Purple Mountain Laboratories, and Jiangsu Province Engineering Research Center of Security for Ubiquitous Network, Nanjing 211189, China. Guang Cheng is the corresponding author. It is expected to play an increasingly important role in smart cities, emergency management, and next-generation communication infrastructures, forming the backbone of low-altitude networks. Nevertheless, the widespread adoption of UA V swarms also brings new security challenges [7], [8] to low-altitude networks.


PoE-World: Compositional World Modeling with Products of Programmatic Experts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning how the world works is central to building AI agents that can adapt to complex environments. Traditional world models based on deep learning demand vast amounts of training data, and do not flexibly update their knowledge from sparse observations. Recent advances in program synthesis using Large Language Models (LLMs) give an alternate approach which learns world models represented as source code, supporting strong generalization from little data. To date, application of program-structured world models remains limited to natural language and grid-world domains. We introduce a novel program synthesis method for effectively modeling complex, non-gridworld domains by representing a world model as an exponentially-weighted product of programmatic experts (PoE-World) synthesized by LLMs. We show that this approach can learn complex, stochastic world models from just a few observations. We evaluate the learned world models by embedding them in a model-based planning agent, demonstrating efficient performance and generalization to unseen levels on Atari's Pong and Montezuma's Revenge. We release our code and display the learned world models and videos of the agent's gameplay at https://topwasu.github.io/poe-world.