Examples can be found in all areas of engineering and science, for instance plant breeding (Hunter & McClosky, 2016), aircraft maintenance (Mattila & Virtanen, 2014) or electric network planning (Dutrieux et al., 2015b). In this work, we choose to focus on Bayesian optimization algorithms, which use probabilistic models to make predictions about the functions to be optimized. One of the classical algorithms for Bayesian deterministic multi-objective optimization is the ParEGO algorithm (Knowles, 2006). It relies on a scalarization approach to extend the very popular single-objective Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) algorithm (Jones et al., 1998), based on the Expected Improvement (EI) criterion. Another scalarization approach, called multi-attribute Knowledge Gradient (Astudillo & Frazier, 2017), uses the Knowledge Gradient (KG) criterion instead of the EI criterion.

Recent studies have utilized sparse classifications to predict categorical variables from high-dimensional brain activity signals to expose human's intentions and mental states, selecting the relevant features automatically in the model training process. However, existing sparse classification models will likely be prone to the performance degradation which is caused by noise inherent in the brain recordings. To address this issue, we aim to propose a new robust and sparse classification algorithm in this study. To this end, we introduce the correntropy learning framework into the automatic relevance determination based sparse classification model, proposing a new correntropy-based robust sparse logistic regression algorithm. To demonstrate the superior brain activity decoding performance of the proposed algorithm, we evaluate it on a synthetic dataset, an electroencephalogram (EEG) dataset, and a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) dataset. The extensive experimental results confirm that not only the proposed method can achieve higher classification accuracy in a noisy and high-dimensional classification task, but also it would select those more informative features for the decoding scenarios. Integrating the correntropy learning approach with the automatic relevance determination technique will significantly improve the robustness with respect to the noise, leading to more adequate robust sparse brain decoding algorithm. It provides a more powerful approach in the real-world brain activity decoding and the brain-computer interfaces.

In this article we consider Bayesian inference associated to deep neural networks (DNNs) and in particular, trace-class neural network (TNN) priors which were proposed by Sell et al. [39]. Such priors were developed as more robust alternatives to classical architectures in the context of inference problems. For this work we develop multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for such models. MLMC is a popular variance reduction technique, with particular applications in Bayesian statistics and uncertainty quantification. We show how a particular advanced MLMC method that was introduced in [4] can be applied to Bayesian inference from DNNs and establish mathematically, that the computational cost to achieve a particular mean square error, associated to posterior expectation computation, can be reduced by several orders, versus more conventional techniques. To verify such results we provide numerous numerical experiments on model problems arising in machine learning. These include Bayesian regression, as well as Bayesian classification and reinforcement learning.

This work in progress aims to provide a unified introduction to statistical learning, building up slowly from classical models like the GMM and HMM to modern neural networks like the VAE and diffusion models. There are today many internet resources that explain this or that new machine-learning algorithm in isolation, but they do not (and cannot, in so brief a space) connect these algorithms with each other or with the classical literature on statistical models, out of which the modern algorithms emerged. Also conspicuously lacking is a single notational system which, although unfazing to those already familiar with the material (like the authors of these posts), raises a significant barrier to the novice's entry. Likewise, I have aimed to assimilate the various models, wherever possible, to a single framework for inference and learning, showing how (and why) to change one model into another with minimal alteration (some of them novel, others from the literature). Some background is of course necessary. I have assumed the reader is familiar with basic multivariable calculus, probability and statistics, and linear algebra. The goal of this book is certainly not completeness, but rather to draw a more or less straight-line path from the basics to the extremely powerful new models of the last decade. The goal then is to complement, not replace, such comprehensive texts as Bishop's \emph{Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning}, which is now 15 years old.

To enable robots to achieve high level objectives, engineers typically write scripts that apply existing specialized skills, such as navigation, object detection and manipulation to achieve these goals. Writing good scripts is challenging since they must intelligently balance the inherent stochasticity of a physical robot's actions and sensors, and the limited information it has. In principle, AI planning can be used to address this challenge and generate good behavior policies automatically. But this requires passing three hurdles. First, the AI must understand each skill's impact on the world. Second, we must bridge the gap between the more abstract level at which we understand what a skill does and the low-level state variables used within its code. Third, much integration effort is required to tie together all components. We describe an approach for integrating robot skills into a working autonomous robot controller that schedules its skills to achieve a specified task and carries four key advantages. 1) Our Generative Skill Documentation Language (GSDL) makes code documentation simpler, compact, and more expressive using ideas from probabilistic programming languages. 2) An expressive abstraction mapping (AM) bridges the gap between low-level robot code and the abstract AI planning model. 3) Any properly documented skill can be used by the controller without any additional programming effort, providing a Plug'n Play experience. 4) A POMDP solver schedules skill execution while properly balancing partial observability, stochastic behavior, and noisy sensing.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought forth the importance of epidemic forecasting for decision makers in multiple domains, ranging from public health to the economy as a whole. While forecasting epidemic progression is frequently conceptualized as being analogous to weather forecasting, however it has some key differences and remains a non-trivial task. The spread of diseases is subject to multiple confounding factors spanning human behavior, pathogen dynamics, weather and environmental conditions. Research interest has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources capturing previously unobservable facets and also due to initiatives from government public health and funding agencies. This has resulted, in particular, in a spate of work on 'data-centered' solutions which have shown potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities by leveraging non-traditional data sources as well as recent innovations in AI and machine learning. This survey delves into various data-driven methodological and practical advancements and introduces a conceptual framework to navigate through them. First, we enumerate the large number of epidemiological datasets and novel data streams that are relevant to epidemic forecasting, capturing various factors like symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce, mobility, genomics data and more. Next, we discuss methods and modeling paradigms focusing on the recent data-driven statistical and deep-learning based methods as well as on the novel class of hybrid models that combine domain knowledge of mechanistic models with the effectiveness and flexibility of statistical approaches. We also discuss experiences and challenges that arise in real-world deployment of these forecasting systems including decision-making informed by forecasts. Finally, we highlight some challenges and open problems found across the forecasting pipeline.

Naive Bayes is a probabilistic machine learning algorithm that is based on the Bayes Theorem and is used for a wide range of classification challenges. In this blog, we will learn about the Naive Bayes algorithm and all of its core concepts so that there are no gaps in the information. As we all know, machine learning is the technology that predicts goal B using characteristics A, i.e., computing the conditional probability P(B A). Then, for the discriminative model, we only take into account assessing the conditional probability. This establishes the classifier under the condition of a limited sample, without evaluating the sample's generative model, instead of learning the prediction model, like in the binary classification problem.

Discovering what other people think has always been a key aspect of our information-gathering strategy. People can now actively utilize information technology to seek out and comprehend the ideas of others, thanks to the increased availability and popularity of opinion-rich resources such as online review sites and personal blogs. Because of its crucial function in understanding people's opinions, sentiment analysis (SA) is a crucial task. Existing research, on the other hand, is primarily focused on the English language, with just a small amount of study devoted to low-resource languages. For sentiment analysis, this work presented a new multi-class Urdu dataset based on user evaluations. The tweeter website was used to get Urdu dataset. Our proposed dataset includes 10,000 reviews that have been carefully classified into two categories by human experts: positive, negative. The primary purpose of this research is to construct a manually annotated dataset for Urdu sentiment analysis and to establish the baseline result. Five different lexicon- and rule-based algorithms including Naivebayes, Stanza, Textblob, Vader, and Flair are employed and the experimental results show that Flair with an accuracy of 70% outperforms other tested algorithms.

Bayesian optimization is a popular framework for the optimization of black box functions. Multifidelity methods allows to accelerate Bayesian optimization by exploiting low-fidelity representations of expensive objective functions. Popular multifidelity Bayesian strategies rely on sampling policies that account for the immediate reward obtained evaluating the objective function at a specific input, precluding greater informative gains that might be obtained looking ahead more steps. This paper proposes a non-myopic multifidelity Bayesian framework to grasp the long-term reward from future steps of the optimization. Our computational strategy comes with a two-step lookahead multifidelity acquisition function that maximizes the cumulative reward obtained measuring the improvement in the solution over two steps ahead. We demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms a standard multifidelity Bayesian framework on popular benchmark optimization problems.

With the increasing abundance of pretrained models in recent years, the problem of selecting the best pretrained checkpoint for a particular downstream classification task has been gaining increased attention. Although several methods have recently been proposed to tackle the selection problem (e.g. LEEP, H-score), these methods resort to applying heuristics that are not well motivated by learning theory. In this paper we present PACTran, a theoretically grounded family of metrics for pretrained model selection and transferability measurement. We first show how to derive PACTran metrics from the optimal PAC-Bayesian bound under the transfer learning setting. We then empirically evaluate three metric instantiations of PACTran on a number of vision tasks (VTAB) as well as a language-and-vision (OKVQA) task. An analysis of the results shows PACTran is a more consistent and effective transferability measure compared to existing selection methods.