However, estimating treatment effects using EHR data poses several challenges, including time-varying confounding, repeated and temporally non-aligned measurements of covariates, treatment assignments and outcomes, and loss-to-follow-up due to dropout. Here, we develop the Subgroup Discovery for Longitudinal Data (SDLD) algorithm, a tree-based algorithm for discovering subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects using longitudinal data by combining the generalized interaction tree algorithm, a general data-driven method for subgroup discovery, with longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation. We apply the algorithm to EHR data to discover subgroups of people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who are at higher risk of weight gain when receiving dolutegravir-containing antiretroviral therapies (ARTs) versus when receiving non dolutegravir-containing ARTs. Key words: Causal Inference; Dolutegravir; Electronic health record; Heterogeneity of treatment effects; Longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood estimation; Machine learning; Recursive partitioning; Subgroup discovery.

This article studies the estimation of latent community memberships from pairwise interactions in a network of $N$ nodes, where the observed interactions can be of arbitrary type, including binary, categorical, and vector-valued, and not excluding even more general objects such as time series or spatial point patterns. As a generative model for such data, we introduce a stochastic block model with a general measurable interaction space $\mathcal S$, for which we derive information-theoretic bounds for the minimum achievable error rate. These bounds yield sharp criteria for the existence of consistent and strongly consistent estimators in terms of data sparsity, statistical similarity between intra- and inter-block interaction distributions, and the shape and size of the interaction space. The general framework makes it possible to study temporal and multiplex networks with $\mathcal S = \{0,1\}^T$, in settings where both $N \to \infty$ and $T \to \infty$, and the temporal interaction patterns are correlated over time. For temporal Markov interactions, we derive sharp consistency thresholds. We also present fast online estimation algorithms which fully utilise the non-binary nature of the observed data. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real data show that these algorithms rapidly produce accurate estimates even for very sparse data arrays.

We study the application of the factor graph framework for symbol detection on linear inter-symbol interference channels. Cyclic factor graphs have the potential to yield low-complexity symbol detectors, but are suboptimal if the ubiquitous sum-product algorithm is applied. In this paper, we present and evaluate strategies to improve the performance of cyclic factor graph-based symbol detection algorithms by means of neural enhancement. In particular, we apply neural belief propagation as an effective way to counteract the effect of cycles within the factor graph. We further propose the application and optimization of a linear preprocessor of the channel output. By modifying the observation model, the preprocessing can effectively change the underlying factor graph, thereby significantly improving the detection performance as well as reducing the complexity.

While sample efficiency is the main motive for use of Bayesian optimisation when black-box functions are expensive to evaluate, the standard approach based on type II maximum likelihood (ML-II) may fail and result in disappointing performance in small-sample trials. The paper provides three compelling reasons to adopt fully Bayesian optimisation (FBO) as an alternative. First, failures of ML-II are more commonplace than implied by the existing studies using the contrived settings. Second, FBO is more robust than ML-II, and the price of robustness is almost trivial. Third, FBO has become simple to implement and fast enough to be practical. The paper supports the argument using relevant experiments, which reflect the current practice regarding models, algorithms, and software platforms. Since the benefits seem to outweigh the costs, researchers should consider adopting FBO for their applications so that they can guard against potential failures that end up wasting precious research resources.

This paper describes a new approach for learning structures of large Bayesian networks based on blocks resulting from feature space clustering. This clustering is obtained using normalized mutual information. And the subsequent aggregation of blocks is done using classical learning methods except that they are input with compressed information about combinations of feature values for each block. Validation of this approach is done for Hill-Climbing as a graph enumeration algorithm for two score functions: BIC and MI. In this way, potentially parallelizable block learning can be implemented even for those score functions that are considered unsuitable for parallelizable learning. The advantage of the approach is evaluated in terms of speed of work as well as the accuracy of the found structures.

This paper studies distributed Bayesian learning in a setting encompassing a central server and multiple workers by focusing on the problem of mitigating the impact of stragglers. The standard one-shot, or embarrassingly parallel, Bayesian learning protocol known as consensus Monte Carlo (CMC) is generalized by proposing two straggler-resilient solutions based on grouping and coding. Two main challenges in designing straggler-resilient algorithms for CMC are the need to estimate the statistics of the workers' outputs across multiple shots, and the joint non-linear post-processing of the outputs of the workers carried out at the server. This is in stark contrast to other distributed settings like gradient coding, which only require the per-shot sum of the workers' outputs. The proposed methods, referred to as Group-based CMC (G-CMC) and Coded CMC (C-CMC), leverage redundant computing at the workers in order to enable the estimation of global posterior samples at the server based on partial outputs from the workers. Simulation results show that C-CMC may outperform G-CMC for a small number of workers, while G-CMC is generally preferable for a larger number of workers.

Process mining is a set of techniques that are used by organizations to understand and improve their operational processes. The first essential step in designing any process reengineering procedure is to find process improvement opportunities. In existing work, it is usually assumed that the set of problematic process instances in which an undesirable outcome occurs is known prior or is easily detectable. So the process enhancement procedure involves finding the root causes and the treatments for the problem in those process instances. For example, the set of problematic instances is considered as those with outlier values or with values smaller/bigger than a given threshold in one of the process features. However, on various occasions, using this approach, many process enhancement opportunities, not captured by these problematic process instances, are missed. To overcome this issue, we formulate finding the process enhancement areas as a context-sensitive anomaly/outlier detection problem. We define a process enhancement area as a set of situations (process instances or prefixes of process instances) where the process performance is surprising. We aim to characterize those situations where process performance/outcome is significantly different from what was expected considering its performance/outcome in similar situations. To evaluate the validity and relevance of the proposed approach, we have implemented and evaluated it on several real-life event logs.

Quantum state tomography (QST), the task of estimating an unknown quantum state given measurement outcomes, is essential to building reliable quantum computing devices. Whereas computing the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimate corresponds to solving a finite-sum convex optimization problem, the objective function is not smooth nor Lipschitz, so most existing convex optimization methods lack sample complexity guarantees; moreover, both the sample size and dimension grow exponentially with the number of qubits in a QST experiment, so a desired algorithm should be highly scalable with respect to the dimension and sample size, just like stochastic gradient descent. In this paper, we propose a stochastic first-order algorithm that computes an $\varepsilon$-approximate ML estimate in $O( ( D \log D ) / \varepsilon ^ 2 )$ iterations with $O( D^3 )$ per-iteration time complexity, where $D$ denotes the dimension of the unknown quantum state and $\varepsilon$ denotes the optimization error. Our algorithm is an extension of Soft-Bayes to the quantum setup.

The understanding of how users in a network update their opinions based on their neighbours opinions has attracted a great deal of interest in the field of network science, and a growing body of literature recognises the significance of this issue. In this research paper, we propose a new dynamic model of opinion formation in directed networks. In this model, the opinion of each node is updated as the weighted average of its neighbours opinions, where the weights represent social influence. We define a new centrality measure as a social influence metric based on both influence and conformity. We measure this new approach using two opinion formation models: (i) the Degroot model and (ii) our own proposed model. Previously published research studies have not considered conformity, and have only considered the influence of the nodes when computing the social influence. In our definition, nodes with low in-degree and high out-degree that were connected to nodes with high out-degree and low in-degree had higher centrality. As the main contribution of this research, we propose an algorithm for finding a small subset of nodes in a social network that can have a significant impact on the opinions of other nodes. Experiments on real-world data demonstrate that the proposed algorithm significantly outperforms previously published state-of-the-art methods.

State-of-the-art neural network language models (NNLMs) represented by long short term memory recurrent neural networks (LSTM-RNNs) and Transformers are becoming highly complex. They are prone to overfitting and poor generalization when given limited training data. To this end, an overarching full Bayesian learning framework encompassing three methods is proposed in this paper to account for the underlying uncertainty in LSTM-RNN and Transformer LMs. The uncertainty over their model parameters, choice of neural activations and hidden output representations are modeled using Bayesian, Gaussian Process and variational LSTM-RNN or Transformer LMs respectively. Efficient inference approaches were used to automatically select the optimal network internal components to be Bayesian learned using neural architecture search. A minimal number of Monte Carlo parameter samples as low as one was also used. These allow the computational costs incurred in Bayesian NNLM training and evaluation to be minimized. Experiments are conducted on two tasks: AMI meeting transcription and Oxford-BBC LipReading Sentences 2 (LRS2) overlapped speech recognition using state-of-the-art LF-MMI trained factored TDNN systems featuring data augmentation, speaker adaptation and audio-visual multi-channel beamforming for overlapped speech. Consistent performance improvements over the baseline LSTM-RNN and Transformer LMs with point estimated model parameters and drop-out regularization were obtained across both tasks in terms of perplexity and word error rate (WER). In particular, on the LRS2 data, statistically significant WER reductions up to 1.3% and 1.2% absolute (12.1% and 11.3% relative) were obtained over the baseline LSTM-RNN and Transformer LMs respectively after model combination between Bayesian NNLMs and their respective baselines.