Bayesian Learning
Evaluating k-NN in the Classification of Data Streams with Concept Drift
de Barros, Roberto Souto Maior, Santos, Silas Garrido Teixeira de Carvalho, Barddal, Jean Paul
Data streams are often defined as large amounts of data flowing continuously at high speed. Moreover, these data are likely subject to changes in data distribution, known as concept drift. Given all the reasons mentioned above, learning from streams is often online and under restrictions of memory consumption and run-time. Although many classification algorithms exist, most of the works published in the area use Naive Bayes (NB) and Hoeffding Trees (HT) as base learners in their experiments. This article proposes an in-depth evaluation of k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) as a candidate for classifying data streams subjected to concept drift. It also analyses the complexity in time and the two main parameters of k-NN, i.e., the number of nearest neighbors used for predictions (k), and window size (w). We compare different parameter values for k-NN and contrast it to NB and HT both with and without a drift detector (RDDM) in many datasets. We formulated and answered 10 research questions which led to the conclusion that k-NN is a worthy candidate for data stream classification, especially when the run-time constraint is not too restrictive.
Bilinear Exponential Family of MDPs: Frequentist Regret Bound with Tractable Exploration and Planning
Ouhamma, Reda, Basu, Debabrota, Maillard, Odalric-Ambrym
We study the problem of episodic reinforcement learning in continuous state-action spaces with unknown rewards and transitions. Specifically, we consider the setting where the rewards and transitions are modeled using parametric bilinear exponential families. We propose an algorithm, BEF-RLSVI, that a) uses penalized maximum likelihood estimators to learn the unknown parameters, b) injects a calibrated Gaussian noise in the parameter of rewards to ensure exploration, and c) leverages linearity of the exponential family with respect to an underlying RKHS to perform tractable planning. We further provide a frequentist regret analysis of BEF-RLSVI that yields an upper bound of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d^3H^3K})$, where $d$ is the dimension of the parameters, $H$ is the episode length, and $K$ is the number of episodes. Our analysis improves the existing bounds for the bilinear exponential family of MDPs by $\sqrt{H}$ and removes the handcrafted clipping deployed in existing \RLSVI-type algorithms. Our regret bound is order-optimal with respect to $H$ and $K$.
Tractable Optimality in Episodic Latent MABs
Kwon, Jeongyeol, Efroni, Yonathan, Caramanis, Constantine, Mannor, Shie
We consider a multi-armed bandit problem with $M$ latent contexts, where an agent interacts with the environment for an episode of $H$ time steps. Depending on the length of the episode, the learner may not be able to estimate accurately the latent context. The resulting partial observation of the environment makes the learning task significantly more challenging. Without any additional structural assumptions, existing techniques to tackle partially observed settings imply the decision maker can learn a near-optimal policy with $O(A)^H$ episodes, but do not promise more. In this work, we show that learning with {\em polynomial} samples in $A$ is possible. We achieve this by using techniques from experiment design. Then, through a method-of-moments approach, we design a procedure that provably learns a near-optimal policy with $O(\texttt{poly}(A) + \texttt{poly}(M,H)^{\min(M,H)})$ interactions. In practice, we show that we can formulate the moment-matching via maximum likelihood estimation. In our experiments, this significantly outperforms the worst-case guarantees, as well as existing practical methods.
A novel non-linear transformation based multi-user identification algorithm for fixed text keystroke behavioral dynamics
Sahu, Chinmay, Banavar, Mahesh, Schuckers, Stephanie
Abstract--In this paper, we propose a new technique to uniquely classify and identify multiple users accessing a single application using keystroke dynamics. This problem is usually encountered when multiple users have legitimate access to shared computers and accounts, where, at times, one user can inadvertently be logged in on another user's account. Since the login processes are usually bypassed at this stage, we rely on keystroke dynamics in order to tell users apart. Our algorithm uses the quantile transform and techniques from localization to classify and identify users. Specifically, we use an algorithm known as ordinal Unfolding based Localization (UNLOC), which uses only ordinal data obtained from comparing distance proxies, by "locating" users in a reduced PCA/Kernel-PCA/t-SNE space based on their typing patterns. Our results are validated with the help of benchmark keystroke datasets and show that our algorithm outperforms other methods. In this paper, we consider With increasing digital presence, securing sensitive and personal both sources of keystrokes. In general, systems authentication [9], [12], [14], where a profile is built for only or web applications utilize one-time authentication using one user. The algorithms used in single-user authentication single sign-on for providing security. Banking and financial determine whether the user at the keyboard is the user in the institutions generally use a knowledge-based mechanism to model.
Learning from aggregated data with a maximum entropy model
Gilotte, Alexandre, Yahmed, Ahmed Ben, Rohde, David
Aggregating a dataset, then injecting some noise, is a simple and common way to release differentially private data.However, aggregated data -- even without noise -- is not an appropriate input for machine learning classifiers.In this work, we show how a new model, similar to a logistic regression, may be learned from aggregated data only by approximating the unobserved feature distribution with a maximum entropy hypothesis. The resulting model is a Markov Random Field (MRF), and we detail how to apply, modify and scale a MRF training algorithm to our setting. Finally we present empirical evidence on several public datasets that the model learned this way can achieve performances comparable to those of a logistic model trained with the full unaggregated data.
A Quadrature Rule combining Control Variates and Adaptive Importance Sampling
Leluc, Rรฉmi, Portier, Franรงois, Segers, Johan, Zhuman, Aigerim
Driven by several successful applications such as in stochastic gradient descent or in Bayesian computation, control variates have become a major tool for Monte Carlo integration. However, standard methods do not allow the distribution of the particles to evolve during the algorithm, as is the case in sequential simulation methods. Within the standard adaptive importance sampling framework, a simple weighted least squares approach is proposed to improve the procedure with control variates. The procedure takes the form of a quadrature rule with adapted quadrature weights to reflect the information brought in by the control variates. The quadrature points and weights do not depend on the integrand, a computational advantage in case of multiple integrands. Moreover, the target density needs to be known only up to a multiplicative constant. Our main result is a non-asymptotic bound on the probabilistic error of the procedure. The bound proves that for improving the estimate's accuracy, the benefits from adaptive importance sampling and control variates can be combined. The good behavior of the method is illustrated empirically on synthetic examples and real-world data for Bayesian linear regression.
Adaptive Synaptic Failure Enables Sampling from Posterior Predictive Distributions in the Brain
McKee, Kevin, Crandell, Ian, Chaudhuri, Rishidev, O'Reilly, Randall
Bayesian interpretations of neural processing require that biological mechanisms represent and operate upon probability distributions in accordance with Bayes' theorem. Many have speculated that synaptic failure constitutes a mechanism of variational, i.e., approximate, Bayesian inference in the brain. Whereas models have previously used synaptic failure to sample over uncertainty in model parameters, we demonstrate that by adapting transmission probabilities to learned network weights, synaptic failure can sample not only over model uncertainty, but complete posterior predictive distributions as well. Our results potentially explain the brain's ability to perform probabilistic searches and to approximate complex integrals. These operations are involved in numerous calculations, including likelihood evaluation and state value estimation for complex planning.
Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo: a pseudo-marginal approach
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is an established approach for uncertainty quantification and propagation in scientific applications. A key challenge in applying MCMC to scientific domains is computation: the target density of interest is often a function of expensive computations, such as a high-fidelity physical simulation, an intractable integral, or a slowly-converging iterative algorithm. Thus, using an MCMC algorithms with an expensive target density becomes impractical, as these expensive computations need to be evaluated at each iteration of the algorithm. In practice, these computations often approximated via a cheaper, low-fidelity computation, leading to bias in the resulting target density. Multi-fidelity MCMC algorithms combine models of varying fidelities in order to obtain an approximate target density with lower computational cost. In this paper, we describe a class of asymptotically exact multi-fidelity MCMC algorithms for the setting where a sequence of models of increasing fidelity can be computed that approximates the expensive target density of interest. We take a pseudo-marginal MCMC approach for multi-fidelity inference that utilizes a cheaper, randomized-fidelity unbiased estimator of the target fidelity constructed via random truncation of a telescoping series of the low-fidelity sequence of models. Finally, we discuss and evaluate the proposed multi-fidelity MCMC approach on several applications, including log-Gaussian Cox process modeling, Bayesian ODE system identification, PDE-constrained optimization, and Gaussian process regression parameter inference.
Uncertainty-Aware Mixed-Variable Machine Learning for Materials Design
Zhang, Hengrui, Chen, Wei Wayne, Iyer, Akshay, Apley, Daniel W., Chen, Wei
Data-driven design shows the promise of accelerating materials discovery but is challenging due to the prohibitive cost of searching the vast design space of chemistry, structure, and synthesis methods. Bayesian Optimization (BO) employs uncertainty-aware machine learning models to select promising designs to evaluate, hence reducing the cost. However, BO with mixed numerical and categorical variables, which is of particular interest in materials design, has not been well studied. In this work, we survey frequentist and Bayesian approaches to uncertainty quantification of machine learning with mixed variables. We then conduct a systematic comparative study of their performances in BO using a popular representative model from each group, the random forest-based Lolo model (frequentist) and the latent variable Gaussian process model (Bayesian). We examine the efficacy of the two models in the optimization of mathematical functions, as well as properties of structural and functional materials, where we observe performance differences as related to problem dimensionality and complexity. By investigating the machine learning models' predictive and uncertainty estimation capabilities, we provide interpretations of the observed performance differences. Our results provide practical guidance on choosing between frequentist and Bayesian uncertainty-aware machine learning models for mixed-variable BO in materials design.
Amortized Bayesian Inference of GISAXS Data with Normalizing Flows
Zhdanov, Maksim, Randolph, Lisa, Kluge, Thomas, Nakatsutsumi, Motoaki, Gutt, Christian, Ganeva, Marina, Hoffmann, Nico
Grazing-Incidence Small-Angle X-ray Scattering (GISAXS) is a modern imaging technique used in material research to study nanoscale materials. Reconstruction of the parameters of an imaged object imposes an ill-posed inverse problem that is further complicated when only an in-plane GISAXS signal is available. Traditionally used inference algorithms such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) rely on computationally expensive scattering simulation software, rendering analysis highly time-consuming. We propose a simulation-based framework that combines variational auto-encoders and normalizing flows to estimate the posterior distribution of object parameters given its GISAXS data. We apply the inference pipeline to experimental data and demonstrate that our method reduces the inference cost by orders of magnitude while producing consistent results with ABC.