Can we use spiking neural networks (SNN) as generative models of multi-neuronal recordings, while taking into account that most neurons are unobserved? Modeling the unobserved neurons with large pools of hidden spiking neurons leads to severely underconstrained problems that are hard to tackle with maximum likelihood estimation. In this work, we use coarse-graining and mean-field approximations to derive a bottom-up, neuronally-grounded latent variable model (neuLVM), where the activity of the unobserved neurons is reduced to a low-dimensional mesoscopic description. In contrast to previous latent variable models, neuLVM can be explicitly mapped to a recurrent, multi-population SNN, giving it a transparent biological interpretation. We show, on synthetic spike trains, that a few observed neurons are sufficient for neuLVM to perform efficient model inversion of large SNNs, in the sense that it can recover connectivity parameters, infer single-trial latent population activity, reproduce ongoing metastable dynamics, and generalize when subjected to perturbations mimicking optogenetic stimulation.

We present a framework to statistically audit the privacy guarantee conferred by a differentially private machine learner in practice. While previous works have taken steps toward evaluating privacy loss through poisoning attacks or membership inference, they have been tailored to specific models or have demonstrated low statistical power. Our work develops a general methodology to empirically evaluate the privacy of differentially private machine learning implementations, combining improved privacy search and verification methods with a toolkit of influence-based poisoning attacks. We demonstrate significantly improved auditing power over previous approaches on a variety of models including logistic regression, Naive Bayes, and random forest. Our method can be used to detect privacy violations due to implementation errors or misuse. When violations are not present, it can aid in understanding the amount of information that can be leaked from a given dataset, algorithm, and privacy specification.

In this paper, we propose a robust data-driven process model whose hyperparameters are robustly estimated using the Schweppe-type generalized maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed model is trained on recorded time-series data of voltage phasors and power injections to perform a time-series stochastic power flow calculation. Power system data are often corrupted with outliers caused by large errors, fault conditions, power outages, and extreme weather, to name a few. The proposed model downweights vertical outliers and bad leverage points in the measurements of the training dataset. The weights used to bound the influence of the outliers are calculated using projection statistics, which are a robust version of Mahalanobis distances of the time series data points. The proposed method is demonstrated on the IEEE 33-Bus power distribution system and a real-world unbalanced 240-bus power distribution system heavily integrated with renewable energy sources. Our simulation results show that the proposed robust model can handle up to 25% of outliers in the training data set.

In this work we initiate the study of the correspondence between p-adic statistical field theories (SFTs) and neural networks (NNs). In general quantum field theories over a p-adic spacetime can be formulated in a rigorous way. Nowadays these theories are considered just mathematical toy models for understanding the problems of the true theories. In this work we show these theories are deeply connected with the deep belief networks (DBNs). Hinton et al. constructed DBNs by stacking several restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs). The purpose of this construction is to obtain a network with a hierarchical structure (a deep learning architecture). An RBM corresponds to a certain spin glass, we argue that a DBN should correspond to an ultrametric spin glass. A model of such a system can be easily constructed by using p-adic numbers. In our approach, a p-adic SFT corresponds to a p-adic continuous DBN, and a discretization of this theory corresponds to a p-adic discrete DBN. We show that these last machines are universal approximators. In the p-adic framework, the correspondence between SFTs and NNs is not fully developed. We point out several open problems.

Identifying functional connectivity biomarkers of major depressive disorder (MDD) patients is essential to advance understanding of the disorder mechanisms and early intervention. However, due to the small sample size and the high dimension of available neuroimaging data, the performance of existing methods is often limited. Multi-site data could enhance the statistical power and sample size, while they are often subject to inter-site heterogeneity and data-sharing policies. In this paper, we propose a federated joint estimator, NOTEARS-PFL, for simultaneous learning of multiple Bayesian networks (BNs) with continuous optimization, to identify disease-induced alterations in MDD patients. We incorporate information shared between sites and site-specific information into the proposed federated learning framework to learn personalized BN structures by introducing the group fused lasso penalty. We develop the alternating direction method of multipliers, where in the local update step, the neuroimaging data is processed at each local site. Then the learned network structures are transmitted to the center for the global update. In particular, we derive a closed-form expression for the local update step and use the iterative proximal projection method to deal with the group fused lasso penalty in the global update step. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method on both synthetic and real-world multi-site rs-fMRI datasets. The results suggest that the proposed NOTEARS-PFL yields superior effectiveness and accuracy than the comparable methods.

This article belongs to the series "Probabilistic Deep Learning". This weekly series covers probabilistic approaches to deep learning. The main goal is to extend deep learning models to quantify uncertainty, i.e. know what they do not know. The frequentist approach to statistics is based on the idea of repeated sampling and long-run relative frequency. It involves constructing hypotheses about a population and testing them using sample data.

This paper considers ranking inference of $n$ items based on the observed data on the top choice among $M$ randomly selected items at each trial. This is a useful modification of the Plackett-Luce model for $M$-way ranking with only the top choice observed and is an extension of the celebrated Bradley-Terry-Luce model that corresponds to $M=2$. Under a uniform sampling scheme in which any $M$ distinguished items are selected for comparisons with probability $p$ and the selected $M$ items are compared $L$ times with multinomial outcomes, we establish the statistical rates of convergence for underlying $n$ preference scores using both $\ell_2$-norm and $\ell_\infty$-norm, with the minimum sampling complexity. In addition, we establish the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator that allows us to construct confidence intervals for the underlying scores. Furthermore, we propose a novel inference framework for ranking items through a sophisticated maximum pairwise difference statistic whose distribution is estimated via a valid Gaussian multiplier bootstrap. The estimated distribution is then used to construct simultaneous confidence intervals for the differences in the preference scores and the ranks of individual items. They also enable us to address various inference questions on the ranks of these items. Extensive simulation studies lend further support to our theoretical results. A real data application illustrates the usefulness of the proposed methods convincingly.

Nowadays, a tremendous amount of human communications occur on Internet-based communication infrastructures, like social networks, email, forums, organizational communication platforms, etc. Indeed, the automatic prediction or assessment of individuals' personalities through their written or exchanged text would be advantageous to ameliorate their relationships. To this end, this paper aims to propose KGrAt-Net, which is a Knowledge Graph Attention Network text classifier. For the first time, it applies the knowledge graph attention network to perform Automatic Personality Prediction (APP), according to the Big Five personality traits. After performing some preprocessing activities, it first tries to acquire a knowing-full representation of the knowledge behind the concepts in the input text by building its equivalent knowledge graph. A knowledge graph collects interlinked descriptions of concepts, entities, and relationships in a machine-readable form. Practically, it provides a machine-readable cognitive understanding of concepts and semantic relationships among them. Then, applying the attention mechanism, it attempts to pay attention to the most relevant parts of the graph to predict the personality traits of the input text. We used 2,467 essays from the Essays Dataset. The results demonstrated that KGrAt-Net considerably improved personality prediction accuracies (up to 70.26% on average). Furthermore, KGrAt-Net also uses knowledge graph embedding to enrich the classification, which makes it even more accurate (on average, 72.41%) in APP.

Sytora is a multilingual symptom-disease classification app. Translation is managed through the UMLS coding standard. A multinomial Naive Bayes classifier is trained on a handpicked dataset, which is freely available under CC4.0. Check out sytora.com for a demo. Finding the right diagnosis cannot be achieved by extracting symptoms and running a classification algorithm.

We develop an approach for fully Bayesian learning and calibration for spatiotemporal dynamical mechanistic models based on noisy observations. Calibration is achieved by melding information from observed data with simulated computer experiments from the mechanistic system. The joint melding makes use of both Gaussian and non-Gaussian state-space methods as well as Gaussian process regression. Assuming the dynamical system is controlled by a finite collection of inputs, Gaussian process regression learns the effect of these parameters through a number of training runs, driving the stochastic innovations of the spatiotemporal state-space component. This enables efficient modeling of the dynamics over space and time. Through reduced-rank Gaussian processes and a conjugate model specification, our methodology is applicable to large-scale calibration and inverse problems. Our method is general, extensible, and capable of learning a wide range of dynamical systems with potential model misspecification. We demonstrate this flexibility through solving inverse problems arising in the analysis of ordinary and partial nonlinear differential equations and, in addition, to a black-box computer model generating spatiotemporal dynamics across a network.