The Web is a vast virtual space where people can share their opinions, impacting all aspects of life and having implications for marketing and communication. The most up-to-date and comprehensive information can be found on social media because of how widespread and straightforward it is to post a message. Proportionately, they are regarded as a valuable resource for making precise market predictions. In particular, Twitter has developed into a potent tool for understanding user sentiment. This article examines how well tweets can influence stock symbol trends. We analyze the volume, sentiment, and mentions of the top five stock symbols in the S&P 500 index on Twitter over three months. Long Short-Term Memory, Bernoulli Na\"ive Bayes, and Random Forest were the three algorithms implemented in this process. Our study revealed a significant correlation between stock prices and Twitter sentiment.

Automatic medical question summarization can significantly help the system to understand consumer health questions and retrieve correct answers. The Seq2Seq model based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been applied in this task, which faces two general problems: the model can not capture well question focus and and the traditional MLE strategy lacks the ability to understand sentence-level semantics. To alleviate these problems, we propose a novel question focus-driven contrastive learning framework (QFCL). Specially, we propose an easy and effective approach to generate hard negative samples based on the question focus, and exploit contrastive learning at both encoder and decoder to obtain better sentence level representations. On three medical benchmark datasets, our proposed model achieves new state-of-the-art results, and obtains a performance gain of 5.33, 12.85 and 3.81 points over the baseline BART model on three datasets respectively. Further human judgement and detailed analysis prove that our QFCL model learns better sentence representations with the ability to distinguish different sentence meanings, and generates high-quality summaries by capturing question focus.

Fault detection and diagnosis is significant for reducing maintenance costs and improving health and safety in chemical processes. Convolution neural network (CNN) is a popular deep learning algorithm with many successful applications in chemical fault detection and diagnosis tasks. However, convolution layers in CNN are very sensitive to the order of features, which can lead to instability in the processing of tabular data. Optimal order of features result in better performance of CNN models but it is expensive to seek such optimal order. In addition, because of the encapsulation mechanism of feature extraction, most CNN models are opaque and have poor interpretability, thus failing to identify root-cause features without human supervision. These difficulties inevitably limit the performance and credibility of CNN methods. In this paper, we propose an order-invariant and interpretable hierarchical dilated convolution neural network (HDLCNN), which is composed by feature clustering, dilated convolution and the shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method. The novelty of HDLCNN lies in its capability of processing tabular data with features of arbitrary order without seeking the optimal order, due to the ability to agglomerate correlated features of feature clustering and the large receptive field of dilated convolution. Then, the proposed method provides interpretability by including the SHAP values to quantify feature contribution. Therefore, the root-cause features can be identified as the features with the highest contribution. Computational experiments are conducted on the Tennessee Eastman chemical process benchmark dataset. Compared with the other methods, the proposed HDLCNN-SHAP method achieves better performance on processing tabular data with features of arbitrary order, detecting faults, and identifying the root-cause features.

The development of efficient exact and approximate algorithms for probabilistic inference is a long-standing goal of artificial intelligence research. Whereas substantial progress has been made in dealing with purely discrete or purely continuous domains, adapting the developed solutions to tackle hybrid domains, characterised by discrete and continuous variables and their relationships, is highly non-trivial. Weighted Model Integration (WMI) recently emerged as a unifying formalism for probabilistic inference in hybrid domains. Despite a considerable amount of recent work, allowing WMI algorithms to scale with the complexity of the hybrid problem is still a challenge. In this paper we highlight some substantial limitations of existing state-of-the-art solutions, and develop an algorithm that combines SMT-based enumeration, an efficient technique in formal verification, with an effective encoding of the problem structure. This allows our algorithm to avoid generating redundant models, resulting in drastic computational savings. Additionally, we show how SMT-based approaches can seamlessly deal with different integration techniques, both exact and approximate, significantly expanding the set of problems that can be tackled by WMI technology. An extensive experimental evaluation on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirms the substantial advantage of the proposed solution over existing alternatives. The application potential of this technology is further showcased on a prototypical task aimed at verifying the fairness of probabilistic programs.

With the remarkable increase in the number of scientific entities such as publications, researchers, and scientific topics, and the associated information overload in science, academic recommender systems have become increasingly important for millions of researchers and science enthusiasts. However, it is often overlooked that these systems are subject to various biases. In this article, we first break down the biases of academic recommender systems and characterize them according to their impact and prevalence. In doing so, we distinguish between biases originally caused by humans and biases induced by the recommender system. Second, we provide an overview of methods that have been used to mitigate these biases in the scholarly domain. Based on this, third, we present a framework that can be used by researchers and developers to mitigate biases in scholarly recommender systems and to evaluate recommender systems fairly. Finally, we discuss open challenges and possible research directions related to scholarly biases.

A wide spectrum of design and decision problems, including parameter tuning, A/B testing and drug design, intrinsically are instances of black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful tool that models and optimizes such expensive "black-box" functions. However, at the beginning of optimization, vanilla Bayesian optimization methods often suffer from slow convergence issue due to inaccurate modeling based on few trials. To address this issue, researchers in the BO community propose to incorporate the spirit of transfer learning to accelerate optimization process, which could borrow strength from the past tasks (source tasks) to accelerate the current optimization problem (target task). This survey paper first summarizes transfer learning methods for Bayesian optimization from four perspectives: initial points design, search space design, surrogate model, and acquisition function. Then it highlights its methodological aspects and technical details for each approach. Finally, it showcases a wide range of applications and proposes promising future directions.

In this work, we advocate for the importance of singular learning theory (SLT) as it pertains to the theory and practice of variational inference in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To begin, using SLT, we lay to rest some of the confusion surrounding discrepancies between downstream predictive performance measured via e.g., the test log predictive density, and the variational objective. Next, we use the SLT-corrected asymptotic form for singular posterior distributions to inform the design of the variational family itself. Specifically, we build upon the idealized variational family introduced in \citet{bhattacharya_evidence_2020} which is theoretically appealing but practically intractable. Our proposal takes shape as a normalizing flow where the base distribution is a carefully-initialized generalized gamma. We conduct experiments comparing this to the canonical Gaussian base distribution and show improvements in terms of variational free energy and variational generalization error.

One of the primary goals in spectrum occupancy mapping is to create a system that is robust to assumptions about the number of sensors, occupancy threshold (in dBm), sensor noise, number of emitters and the propagation environment. We show that such a system may be designed with neural networks using a process of aggregation to allow a variable number of sensors during training and testing. This process transforms the variable number of measurements into approximate log-likelihood ratios (LLRs), which are fed as a fixed-resolution image into a neural network. The use of LLR's provides robustness to the effects of noise and occupancy threshold. In other words, a system may be trained for a nominal number of sensors, threshold and noise levels, and still operate well at various other levels without retraining. Our system operates without knowledge of the number of emitters and does not explicitly attempt to estimate their number or power. Receiver operating curves with realistic propagation environments using topographic maps with commercial network design tools show how performance of the neural network varies with the environment. The use of very low-resolution sensors in this system can still yield good performance. Manuscript received: February 14, 2023.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive class of machine learning models because of their simplicity and flexibility as building blocks of more complex Bayesian models. Meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) emerged recently as a promising class of models for graph-structured data in semi-supervised learning and beyond. Their competitive performance is often attributed to a proper capturing of the graph inductive bias. In this work, we introduce this inductive bias into GPs to improve their predictive performance for graph-structured data. We show that a prominent example of GNNs, the graph convolutional network, is equivalent to some GP when its layers are infinitely wide; and we analyze the kernel universality and the limiting behavior in depth. We further present a programmable procedure to compose covariance kernels inspired by this equivalence and derive example kernels corresponding to several interesting members of the GNN family. We also propose a computationally efficient approximation of the covariance matrix for scalable posterior inference with large-scale data. We demonstrate that these graph-based kernels lead to competitive classification and regression performance, as well as advantages in computation time, compared with the respective GNNs.

Standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) training can produce deep neural network (DNN) models that are accurate on average but under-perform in under-represented population subgroups, especially when there are imbalanced group distributions in the long-tailed training data. Therefore, approaches that improve the accuracy-group robustness trade-off frontier of a DNN model (i.e. improving worst-group accuracy without sacrificing average accuracy, or vice versa) is of crucial importance. Uncertainty-based active learning (AL) can potentially improve the frontier by preferentially sampling underrepresented subgroups to create a more balanced training dataset. However, the quality of uncertainty estimates from modern DNNs tend to degrade in the presence of spurious correlations and dataset bias, compromising the effectiveness of AL for sampling tail groups. In this work, we propose Introspective Self-play (ISP), a simple approach to improve the uncertainty estimation of a deep neural network under dataset bias, by adding an auxiliary introspection task requiring a model to predict the bias for each data point in addition to the label. We show that ISP provably improves the bias-awareness of the model representation and the resulting uncertainty estimates. On two real-world tabular and language tasks, ISP serves as a simple "plug-in" for AL model training, consistently improving both the tail-group sampling rate and the final accuracy-fairness trade-off frontier of popular AL methods.