We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to a dataset of binary risky choice. We quantitatively account for the fraction of choice reversals between two repetitions of the experiment, using a probabilistic choice formulation in the simplest form without model assumption or adjustable parameters. The prediction of choice reversal is then refined by introducing heterogeneity between decision makers through their differentiation into two groups: ``majoritarian'' and ``contrarian'' (in proportion 3:1). This supports the first fundamental tenet of QDT, which models choice as an inherent probabilistic process, where the probability of a prospect can be expressed as the sum of its utility and attraction factors. We propose to parameterise the utility factor with a stochastic version of cumulative prospect theory (logit-CPT), and the attraction factor with a constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) function. For this dataset, and penalising the larger number of QDT parameters via the Wilks test of nested hypotheses, the QDT model is found to perform significantly better than logit-CPT at both the aggregate and individual levels, and for all considered fit criteria for the first experiment iteration and for predictions (second ``out-of-sample'' iteration). The distinctive QDT effect captured by the attraction factor is mostly appreciable (i.e., most relevant and strongest in amplitude) for prospects with big losses. Our quantitative analysis of the experimental results supports the existence of an intrinsic limit of predictability, which is associated with the inherent probabilistic nature of choice. The results of the paper can find applications both in the prediction of choice of human decision makers as well as for organizing the operation of artificial intelligence.

Causality has the potential to truly transform the way we solve a large number of real-world problems. Yet, so far, its potential remains largely unlocked since most work so far requires strict assumptions which do not hold true in practice. To address this challenge and make progress in solving real-world problems, we propose a new way of thinking about causality - we call this causal deep learning. The framework which we propose for causal deep learning spans three dimensions: (1) a structural dimension, which allows incomplete causal knowledge rather than assuming either full or no causal knowledge; (2) a parametric dimension, which encompasses parametric forms which are typically ignored; and finally, (3) a temporal dimension, which explicitly allows for situations which capture exposure times or temporal structure. Together, these dimensions allow us to make progress on a variety of real-world problems by leveraging (sometimes incomplete) causal knowledge and/or combining diverse causal deep learning methods. This new framework also enables researchers to compare systematically across existing works as well as identify promising research areas which can lead to real-world impact.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) addresses the problem of learning a performant policy from a fixed batch of data collected by following some behavior policy. Model-based approaches are particularly appealing in the offline setting since they can extract more learning signals from the logged dataset by learning a model of the environment. However, the performance of existing model-based approaches falls short of model-free counterparts, due to the compounding of estimation errors in the learned model. Driven by this observation, we argue that it is critical for a model-based method to understand when to trust the model and when to rely on model-free estimates, and how to act conservatively w.r.t. both. To this end, we derive an elegant and simple methodology called conservative Bayesian model-based value expansion for offline policy optimization (CBOP), that trades off model-free and model-based estimates during the policy evaluation step according to their epistemic uncertainties, and facilitates conservatism by taking a lower bound on the Bayesian posterior value estimate. On the standard D4RL continuous control tasks, we find that our method significantly outperforms previous model-based approaches: e.g., MOPO by $116.4$%, MOReL by $23.2$% and COMBO by $23.7$%. Further, CBOP achieves state-of-the-art performance on $11$ out of $18$ benchmark datasets while doing on par on the remaining datasets.

The goal of Next-Generation Networks is to improve upon the current networking paradigm, especially in providing higher data rates, near-real-time latencies, and near-perfect quality of service. However, existing radio access network (RAN) architectures lack sufficient flexibility and intelligence to meet those demands. Open RAN (O-RAN) is a promising paradigm for building a virtualized and intelligent RAN architecture. This paper presents a Machine Learning (ML)-based Traffic Steering (TS) scheme to predict network congestion and then proactively steer O-RAN traffic to avoid it and reduce the expected queuing delay. To achieve this, we propose an optimized setup focusing on safeguarding both latency and reliability to serve URLLC applications. The proposed solution consists of a two-tiered ML strategy based on Naive Bayes Classifier and deep Q-learning. Our solution is evaluated against traditional reactive TS approaches that are offered as xApps in O-RAN and shows an average of 15.81 percent decrease in queuing delay across all deployed SFCs.

In this work, we provide a deterministic alternative to the stochastic variational training of generative autoencoders. We refer to these new generative autoencoders as AutoEncoders within Flows (AEF), since the encoder and decoder are defined as affine layers of an overall invertible architecture. This results in a deterministic encoding of the data, as opposed to the stochastic encoding of VAEs. The paper introduces two related families of AEFs. The first family relies on a partition of the ambient space and is trained by exact maximum-likelihood. The second family exploits a deterministic expansion of the ambient space and is trained by maximizing the log-probability in this extended space. This latter case leaves complete freedom in the choice of encoder, decoder and prior architectures, making it a drop-in replacement for the training of existing VAEs and VAE-style models. We show that these AEFs can have strikingly higher performance than architecturally identical VAEs in terms of log-likelihood and sample quality, especially for low dimensional latent spaces. Importantly, we show that AEF samples are substantially sharper than VAE samples.

Using deep learning models to diagnose cancer from histology data presents several challenges. Cancer grading and localization of regions of interest (ROIs) in these images normally relies on both image- and pixel-level labels, the latter requiring a costly annotation process. Deep weakly-supervised object localization (WSOL) methods provide different strategies for low-cost training of deep learning models. Using only image-class annotations, these methods can be trained to classify an image, and yield class activation maps (CAMs) for ROI localization. This paper provides a review of state-of-art DL methods for WSOL. We propose a taxonomy where these methods are divided into bottom-up and top-down methods according to the information flow in models. Although the latter have seen limited progress, recent bottom-up methods are currently driving much progress with deep WSOL methods. Early works focused on designing different spatial pooling functions. However, these methods reached limited localization accuracy, and unveiled a major limitation -- the under-activation of CAMs which leads to high false negative localization. Subsequent works aimed to alleviate this issue and recover complete object. Representative methods from our taxonomy are evaluated and compared in terms of classification and localization accuracy on two challenging histology datasets. Overall, the results indicate poor localization performance, particularly for generic methods that were initially designed to process natural images. Methods designed to address the challenges of histology data yielded good results. However, all methods suffer from high false positive/negative localization. Four key challenges are identified for the application of deep WSOL methods in histology -- under/over activation of CAMs, sensitivity to thresholding, and model selection.

Recently, Model Predictive Contouring Control (MPCC) has arisen as the state-of-the-art approach for model-based agile flight. MPCC benefits from great flexibility in trading-off between progress maximization and path following at runtime without relying on globally optimized trajectories. However, finding the optimal set of tuning parameters for MPCC is challenging because (i) the full quadrotor dynamics are non-linear, (ii) the cost function is highly non-convex, and (iii) of the high dimensionality of the hyperparameter space. This paper leverages a probabilistic Policy Search method - Weighted Maximum Likelihood (WML)- to automatically learn the optimal objective for MPCC. WML is sample-efficient due to its closed-form solution for updating the learning parameters. Additionally, the data efficiency provided by the use of a model-based approach allows us to directly train in a high-fidelity simulator, which in turn makes our approach able to transfer zero-shot to the real world. We validate our approach in the real world, where we show that our method outperforms both the previous manually tuned controller and the state-of-the-art auto-tuning baseline reaching speeds of 75 km/h.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models $\Phi$ and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions $\Psi$. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{\mathcal{C}_\Phi/m} + \sqrt{\mathcal{C}_\Psi/n})$ for downstream tasks, where $\mathcal{C}_\Phi, \mathcal{C}_\Psi$ are complexity measures of function classes $\Phi, \Psi$, and $m, n$ are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{\mathcal{C}_{\Phi \circ \Psi}/n})$ achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when $m \gg n$ and $\mathcal{C}_{\Phi\circ \Psi} > \mathcal{C}_\Psi$. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

I propose a novel approach for nonlinear Logistic regression using a two-layer neural network (NN) model structure with hierarchical priors on the network weights. I present a hybrid of expectation propagation called Variational Expectation Propagation approach (VEP) for approximate integration over the posterior distribution of the weights, the hierarchical scale parameters of the priors and zeta. Using a factorized posterior approximation I derive a computationally efficient algorithm, whose complexity scales similarly to an ensemble of independent sparse logistic models. The approach can be extended beyond standard activation functions and NN model structures to form flexible nonlinear binary predictors from multiple sparse linear models. I consider a hierarchical Bayesian model with logistic regression likelihood and a Gaussian prior distribution over the parameters called weights and hyperparameters. I work in the perspective of E step and M step for computing the approximating posterior and updating the parameters using the computed posterior respectively.

Time-series prediction has drawn considerable attention during the past decades fueled by the emerging advances of deep learning methods. However, most neural network based methods lack interpretability and fail in extracting the hidden mechanism of the targeted physical system. To overcome these shortcomings, an interpretable sparse system identification method without any prior knowledge is proposed in this study. This method adopts the Fourier transform to reduces the irrelevant items in the dictionary matrix, instead of indiscriminate usage of polynomial functions in most system identification methods. It shows an interpretable system representation and greatly reduces computing cost. With the adoption of $l_1$ norm in regularizing the parameter matrix, a sparse description of the system model can be achieved. Moreover, Three data sets including the water conservancy data, global temperature data and financial data are used to test the performance of the proposed method. Although no prior knowledge was known about the physical background, experimental results show that our method can achieve long-term prediction regardless of the noise and incompleteness in the original data more accurately than the widely-used baseline data-driven methods. This study may provide some insight into time-series prediction investigations, and suggests that an white-box system identification method may extract the easily overlooked yet inherent periodical features and may beat neural-network based black-box methods on long-term prediction tasks.