Conditional Neural Processes~(CNPs) formulate distributions over functions and generate function observations with exact conditional likelihoods. CNPs, however, have limited expressivity for high-dimensional observations, since their predictive distribution is factorized into a product of unconstrained (typically) Gaussian outputs. Previously, this could be handled using latent variables or autoregressive likelihood, but at the expense of intractable training and quadratically increased complexity. Instead, we propose calibrating CNPs with an adversarial training scheme besides regular maximum likelihood estimates. Specifically, we train an energy-based model (EBM) with noise contrastive estimation, which enforces EBM to identify true observations from the generations of CNP. In this way, CNP must generate predictions closer to the ground-truth to fool EBM, instead of merely optimizing with respect to the fixed-form likelihood. From generative function reconstruction to downstream regression and classification tasks, we demonstrate that our method fits mainstream CNP members, showing effectiveness when unconstrained Gaussian likelihood is defined, requiring minimal computation overhead while preserving foundation properties of CNPs.

This article is written for pedagogical purposes aiming at practitioners trying to estimate the finite support of continuous probability distributions, i.e., the minimum and the maximum of a distribution defined on a finite domain. Generalized Pareto distribution GP({\theta}, {\sigma}, {\xi}) is a three-parameter distribution which plays a key role in Peaks-Over-Threshold framework for tail estimation in Extreme Value Theory. Estimators for GP often lack analytical solutions and the best known Bayesian methods for GP involves numerical methods. Moreover, existing literature focuses on estimating the scale {\sigma} and the shape {\xi}, lacking discussion of the estimation of the location {\theta} which is the lower support of (minimum value possible in) a GP. To fill the gap, we analyze four two-parameter subclasses of GP whose conjugate priors can be obtained analytically, although some of the results are known. Namely, we prove the conjugacy for {\xi} > 0 (Pareto), {\xi} = 0 (Shifted Exponential), {\xi} < 0 (Power), and {\xi} = -1 (Two-parameter Uniform).

When considering an invariant that gives a Bayesian generalization error, that is a real log canonical threshold, in general, papers replace a mean error function with a relatively simple polynomial whose real log canonical threshold corresponds to that of the mean error function, and obtain its real log canonical threshold by resolving its singularities through an algebraic operation called blow-up. Though it is known that the singularities of any polynomial can be resolved by a finite number of blow-up iterations, it is not clarified well whether or not it is possible to resolve singularities of a specific polynomial by applying a specific blow-up algorithm. Therefore this paper proposes a blow-up algorithm that can be applied to the polynomials called sum-of-products polynomials and proves that it halts. Furthermore, this paper considers real log canonical thresholds of sum-of-products polynomials by using the algorithm. First, this section explains the foundation of Bayesian learning theory and details the relation to a real log canonical threshold and blow-up. Then this section defines exclusive sum-of-products polynomials which is subject to previous studies and explains the novelty and utility of this paper.

We state concentration inequalities for the output of the hidden layers of a stochastic deep neural network (SDNN), as well as for the output of the whole SDNN. These results allow us to introduce an expected classifier (EC), and to give probabilistic upper bound for the classification error of the EC. We also state the optimal number of layers for the SDNN via an optimal stopping procedure. We apply our analysis to a stochastic version of a feedforward neural network with ReLU activation function.

An algorithm based on a deep probabilistic architecture referred to as a tree-structured sum-product network (t-SPN) is considered for cell classification. The t-SPN is constructed such that the unnormalized probability is represented as conditional probabilities of a subset of most similar cell classes. The constructed t-SPN architecture is learned by maximizing the margin, which is the difference in the conditional probability between the true and the most competitive false label. To enhance the generalization ability of the architecture, L2-regularization (REG) is considered along with the maximum margin (MM) criterion in the learning process. To highlight cell features, this paper investigates the effectiveness of two generic high-pass filters: ideal high-pass filtering and the Laplacian of Gaussian (LOG) filtering. On both HEp-2 and Feulgen benchmark datasets, the t-SPN architecture learned based on the max-margin criterion with regularization produced the highest accuracy rate compared to other state-of-the-art algorithms that include convolutional neural network (CNN) based algorithms. The ideal high-pass filter was more effective on the HEp-2 dataset, which is based on immunofluorescence staining, while the LOG was more effective on the Feulgen dataset, which is based on Feulgen staining.

In complex large-scale systems such as climate, important effects are caused by a combination of confounding processes that are not fully observable. The identification of sources from observations of system state is vital for attribution and prediction, which inform critical policy decisions. The difficulty of these types of inverse problems lies in the inability to isolate sources and the cost of simulating computational models. Surrogate models may enable the many-query algorithms required for source identification, but data challenges arise from high dimensionality of the state and source, limited ensembles of costly model simulations to train a surrogate model, and few and potentially noisy state observations for inversion due to measurement limitations. The influence of auxiliary processes adds an additional layer of uncertainty that further confounds source identification. We introduce a framework based on (1) calibrating deep neural network surrogates to the flow maps provided by an ensemble of simulations obtained by varying sources, and (2) using these surrogates in a Bayesian framework to identify sources from observations via optimization. Focusing on an atmospheric dispersion exemplar, we find that the expressive and computationally efficient nature of the deep neural network operator surrogates in appropriately reduced dimension allows for source identification with uncertainty quantification using limited data. Introducing a variable wind field as an auxiliary process, we find that a Bayesian approximation error approach is essential for reliable source inversion when uncertainty due to wind stresses the algorithm.

Bayesian Pseudo-Coreset (BPC) and Dataset Condensation are two parallel streams of work that construct a synthetic set such that, a model trained independently on this synthetic set, yields the same performance as training on the original training set. While dataset condensation methods use non-bayesian, heuristic ways to construct such a synthetic set, BPC methods take a bayesian approach and formulate the problem as divergence minimization between posteriors associated with original data and synthetic data. However, BPC methods generally rely on distributional assumptions on these posteriors which makes them less flexible and hinders their performance. In this work, we propose to solve these issues by modeling the posterior associated with synthetic data by an energy-based distribution. We derive a contrastive-divergence-like loss function to learn the synthetic set and show a simple and efficient way to estimate this loss. Further, we perform rigorous experiments pertaining to the proposed method. Our experiments on multiple datasets show that the proposed method not only outperforms previous BPC methods but also gives performance comparable to dataset condensation counterparts.

We propose a new general model called IPNN - Indeterminate Probability Neural Network, which combines neural network and probability theory together. In the classical probability theory, the calculation of probability is based on the occurrence of events, which is hardly used in current neural networks. In this paper, we propose a new general probability theory, which is an extension of classical probability theory, and makes classical probability theory a special case to our theory. Besides, for our proposed neural network framework, the output of neural network is defined as probability events, and based on the statistical analysis of these events, the inference model for classification task is deduced. IPNN shows new property: It can perform unsupervised clustering while doing classification. Besides, IPNN is capable of making very large classification with very small neural network, e.g. model with 100 output nodes can classify 10 billion categories. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are largely heuristic and depend heavily on empirical results, lacking theoretical explanation. Furthermore, existing methods overlook the decision loss, which characterizes different costs associated with tailed classes. This paper presents a general and principled framework from a Bayesian-decision-theory perspective, which unifies existing techniques including re-balancing and ensemble methods, and provides theoretical justifications for their effectiveness. From this perspective, we derive a novel objective based on the integrated risk and a Bayesian deep-ensemble approach to improve the accuracy of all classes, especially the "tail". Besides, our framework allows for task-adaptive decision loss which provides provably optimal decisions in varying task scenarios, along with the capability to quantify uncertainty. Finally, We conduct comprehensive experiments, including standard classification, tail-sensitive classification with a new False Head Rate metric, calibration, and ablation studies. Our framework significantly improves the current SOTA even on large-scale real-world datasets like ImageNet.

Through constant improvements in recent years radar sensors have become a viable alternative to lidar as the main distancing sensor of an autonomous vehicle. Although robust and with the possibility to directly measure the radial velocity, it brings it's own set of challenges, for which existing algorithms need to be adapted. One core algorithm of a perception system is dynamic occupancy grid mapping, which has traditionally relied on lidar. In this paper we present a dual-weight particle filter as an extension for a Bayesian occupancy grid mapping framework to allow to operate it with radar as its main sensors. It uses two separate particle weights that are computed differently to compensate that a radial velocity measurement in many situations is not able to capture the actual velocity of an object. We evaluate the method extensively with simulated data and show the advantages over existing single weight solutions.