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 Bayesian Learning


Thematic context vector association based on event uncertainty for Twitter

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Keyword extraction is a crucial process in text mining. The extraction of keywords with respective contextual events in Twitter data is a big challenge. The challenging issues are mainly because of the informality in the language used. The use of misspelled words, acronyms, and ambiguous terms causes informality. The extraction of keywords with informal language in current systems is pattern based or event based. In this paper, contextual keywords are extracted using thematic events with the help of data association. The thematic context for events is identified using the uncertainty principle in the proposed system. The thematic contexts are weighed with the help of vectors called thematic context vectors which signifies the event as certain or uncertain. The system is tested on the Twitter COVID-19 dataset and proves to be effective. The system extracts event-specific thematic context vectors from the test dataset and ranks them. The extracted thematic context vectors are used for the clustering of contextual thematic vectors which improves the silhouette coefficient by 0.5% than state of art methods namely TF and TF-IDF. The thematic context vector can be used in other applications like Cyberbullying, sarcasm detection, figurative language detection, etc.


Human alignment of neural network representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Today's computer vision models achieve human or near-human level performance across a wide variety of vision tasks. However, their architectures, data, and learning algorithms differ in numerous ways from those that give rise to human vision. In this paper, we investigate the factors that affect the alignment between the representations learned by neural networks and human mental representations inferred from behavioral responses. We find that model scale and architecture have essentially no effect on the alignment with human behavioral responses, whereas the training dataset and objective function both have a much larger impact. These findings are consistent across three datasets of human similarity judgments collected using two different tasks. Linear transformations of neural network representations learned from behavioral responses from one dataset substantially improve alignment with human similarity judgments on the other two datasets. In addition, we find that some human concepts such as food and animals are well-represented by neural networks whereas others such as royal or sports-related objects are not. Overall, although models trained on larger, more diverse datasets achieve better alignment with humans than models trained on ImageNet alone, our results indicate that scaling alone is unlikely to be sufficient to train neural networks with conceptual representations that match those used by humans. Representation learning is a fundamental part of modern computer vision systems, but the paradigm has its roots in cognitive science. When Rumelhart et al. (1986) developed backpropagation, their goal was to find a method that could learn representations of concepts that are distributed across neurons, similarly to the human brain. The discovery that representations learned by backpropagation could replicate nontrivial aspects of human concept learning was a key factor in its rise to popularity in the late 1980s (Sutherland, 1986; Ng & Hinton, 2017). A string of empirical successes has since shifted the primary focus of representation learning research away from its similarities to human cognition and toward practical applications. This shift has been fruitful. By some metrics, the best computer vision models now outperform the best individual humans on benchmarks such as ImageNet (Shankar et al., 2020; Beyer et al., 2020; Vasudevan et al., 2022). As computer vision systems become increasingly widely used outside of research, we would like to know if they see the world in the same way that humans do.


Polarity based Sarcasm Detection using Semigraph

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sarcasm is an advanced linguistic expression often found on various online platforms. Sarcasm detection is challenging in natural language processing tasks that affect sentiment analysis. This article presents the inventive method of the semigraph, including semigraph construction and sarcasm detection processes. A variation of the semigraph is suggested in the pattern-relatedness of the text document. The proposed method is to obtain the sarcastic and non-sarcastic polarity scores of a document using a semigraph. The sarcastic polarity score represents the possibility that a document will become sarcastic. Sarcasm is detected based on the polarity scoring model. The performance of the proposed model enhances the existing prior art approach to sarcasm detection. In the Amazon product review, the model achieved the accuracy, recall, and f-measure of 0.87, 0.79, and 0.83, respectively.


Detecting Fake Job Postings Using Bidirectional LSTM

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Fake job postings have become prevalent in the online job market, posing significant challenges to job seekers and employers. Despite the growing need to address this problem, there is limited research that leverages deep learning techniques for the detection of fraudulent job advertisements. This study aims to fill the gap by employing a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model to identify fake job advertisements. Our approach considers both numeric and text features, effectively capturing the underlying patterns and relationships within the data. The proposed model demonstrates a superior performance, achieving a 0.91 ROC AUC score and a 98.71% accuracy rate, indicating its potential for practical applications in the online job market. The findings of this research contribute to the development of robust, automated tools that can help combat the proliferation of fake job postings and improve the overall integrity of the job search process. Moreover, we discuss challenges, future research directions, and ethical considerations related to our approach, aiming to inspire further exploration and development of practical solutions to combat online job fraud.


Artificial neural networks and time series of counts: A class of nonlinear INGARCH models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Time series of counts are frequently analyzed using generalized integer-valued autoregressive models with conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH). These models employ response functions to map a vector of past observations and past conditional expectations to the conditional expectation of the present observation. In this paper, it is shown how INGARCH models can be combined with artificial neural network (ANN) response functions to obtain a class of nonlinear INGARCH models. The ANN framework allows for the interpretation of many existing INGARCH models as a degenerate version of a corresponding neural model. Details on maximum likelihood estimation, marginal effects and confidence intervals are given. The empirical analysis of time series of bounded and unbounded counts reveals that the neural INGARCH models are able to outperform reasonable degenerate competitor models in terms of the information loss.


Uncertainty Propagation in Node Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantifying predictive uncertainty of neural networks has recently attracted increasing attention. In this work, we focus on measuring uncertainty of graph neural networks (GNNs) for the task of node classification. Most existing GNNs model message passing among nodes. The messages are often deterministic. Questions naturally arise: Does there exist uncertainty in the messages? How could we propagate such uncertainty over a graph together with messages? To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian uncertainty propagation (BUP) method, which embeds GNNs in a Bayesian modeling framework, and models predictive uncertainty of node classification with Bayesian confidence of predictive probability and uncertainty of messages. Our method proposes a novel uncertainty propagation mechanism inspired by Gaussian models. Moreover, we present an uncertainty oriented loss for node classification that allows the GNNs to clearly integrate predictive uncertainty in learning procedure. Consequently, the training examples with large predictive uncertainty will be penalized. We demonstrate the BUP with respect to prediction reliability and out-of-distribution (OOD) predictions. The learned uncertainty is also analyzed in depth. The relations between uncertainty and graph topology, as well as predictive uncertainty in the OOD cases are investigated with extensive experiments. The empirical results with popular benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method.


Risk-Sensitive and Robust Model-Based Reinforcement Learning and Planning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many sequential decision-making problems that are currently automated, such as those in manufacturing or recommender systems, operate in an environment where there is either little uncertainty, or zero risk of catastrophe. As companies and researchers attempt to deploy autonomous systems in less constrained environments, it is increasingly important that we endow sequential decision-making algorithms with the ability to reason about uncertainty and risk. In this thesis, we will address both planning and reinforcement learning (RL) approaches to sequential decision-making. In the planning setting, it is assumed that a model of the environment is provided, and a policy is optimised within that model. Reinforcement learning relies upon extensive random exploration, and therefore usually requires a simulator in which to perform training. In many real-world domains, it is impossible to construct a perfectly accurate model or simulator. Therefore, the performance of any policy is inevitably uncertain due to the incomplete knowledge about the environment. Furthermore, in stochastic domains, the outcome of any given run is also uncertain due to the inherent randomness of the environment. These two sources of uncertainty are usually classified as epistemic, and aleatoric uncertainty, respectively. The over-arching goal of this thesis is to contribute to developing algorithms that mitigate both sources of uncertainty in sequential decision-making problems. We make a number of contributions towards this goal, with a focus on model-based algorithms...


Experimentation Platforms Meet Reinforcement Learning: Bayesian Sequential Decision-Making for Continuous Monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the growing needs of online A/B testing to support the innovation in industry, the opportunity cost of running an experiment becomes non-negligible. Therefore, there is an increasing demand for an efficient continuous monitoring service that allows early stopping when appropriate. Classic statistical methods focus on hypothesis testing and are mostly developed for traditional high-stake problems such as clinical trials, while experiments at online service companies typically have very different features and focuses. Motivated by the real needs, in this paper, we introduce a novel framework that we developed in Amazon to maximize customer experience and control opportunity cost. We formulate the problem as a Bayesian optimal sequential decision making problem that has a unified utility function. We discuss extensively practical design choices and considerations. We further introduce how to solve the optimal decision rule via Reinforcement Learning and scale the solution. We show the effectiveness of this novel approach compared with existing methods via a large-scale meta-analysis on experiments in Amazon.


Bayesian neural networks via MCMC: a Python-based tutorial

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques are used to implement Bayesian inference. In the past three decades, MCMC methods have faced a number of challenges in being adapted to larger models (such as in deep learning) and big data problems. Advanced proposals that incorporate gradients, such as a Langevin proposal distribution, provide a means to address some of the limitations of MCMC sampling for Bayesian neural networks. Furthermore, MCMC methods have typically been constrained to use by statisticians and are still not prominent among deep learning researchers. We present a tutorial for MCMC methods that covers simple Bayesian linear and logistic models, and Bayesian neural networks. The aim of this tutorial is to bridge the gap between theory and implementation via coding, given a general sparsity of libraries and tutorials to this end. This tutorial provides code in Python with data and instructions that enable their use and extension. We provide results for some benchmark problems showing the strengths and weaknesses of implementing the respective Bayesian models via MCMC. We highlight the challenges in sampling multi-modal posterior distributions in particular for the case of Bayesian neural networks, and the need for further improvement of convergence diagnosis.


Enhanced Bayesian Neural Networks for Macroeconomics and Finance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent decades, statistical agencies, governmental institutions and central banks increasingly collect vast datasets. Practitioners and academics rely on these datasets to form forecasts about the future, efficiently tailor policies or improve decisions at the corporate level. However, this abundance of data also gives rise to the curse of dimensionality and questions related to separating signal (i.e., extracting information from important covariates) from noise (i.e., covariates which do not convey meaningful information) are key for carrying out precise inference. Fortunately, the recent literature on statistical and econometric modeling in high dimensions using regularization-based techniques offers a range of solutions (see, e.g., Carvalho et al., 2010; Bhattacharya and Dunson, 2011; Griffin and Brown, 2013; Belmonte et al., 2014; Huber et al., 2021). One key shortcoming, however, is that these models often assume linearity between a given response variable (or in general a vector of responses) and a possibly huge panel of covariates. The reason for this is simplicity in estimation and interpretation. Apart from these very general reasons, allowing for arbitrary functional relations in the conditional mean introduces substantial conceptual challenges.