Deep generative models (DGMs) and their conditional counterparts provide a powerful ability for general-purpose generative modeling of data distributions. However, it remains challenging for existing methods to address advanced conditional generative problems without annotations, which can enable multiple applications like image-to-image translation and image editing. We present a unified Bayesian framework for such problems, which introduces an inference stage on latent variables within the learning process. In particular, we propose a variational Bayesian image translation network (VBITN) that enables multiple image translation and editing tasks. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of our method on unsupervised image-to-image translation, and demonstrate the novel advanced capabilities for semantic editing and mixed domain translation.

We use both Bayesian and neural models to dissect a data set of Chinese learners' pre- and post-interventional responses to two tests measuring their understanding of English prepositions. The results mostly replicate previous findings from frequentist analyses and newly reveal crucial interactions between student ability, task type, and stimulus sentence. Given the sparsity of the data as well as high diversity among learners, the Bayesian method proves most useful; but we also see potential in using language model probabilities as predictors of grammaticality and learnability.

Selecting an effective training signal for tasks in natural language processing is difficult: expert annotations are expensive, and crowd-sourced annotations may not be reliable. At the same time, recent work in NLP has demonstrated that learning from a distribution over labels acquired from crowd annotations can be effective. However, there are many ways to acquire such a distribution, and the performance allotted by any one method can fluctuate based on the task and the amount of available crowd annotations, making it difficult to know a priori which distribution is best. This paper systematically analyzes this in the out-of-domain setting, adding to the NLP literature which has focused on in-domain evaluation, and proposes new methods for acquiring soft-labels from crowd-annotations by aggregating the distributions produced by existing methods. In particular, we propose to aggregate multiple-views of crowd annotations via temperature scaling and finding their Jensen-Shannon centroid. We demonstrate that these aggregation methods lead to the most consistent performance across four NLP tasks on out-of-domain test sets, mitigating fluctuations in performance from the individual distributions. Additionally, aggregation results in the most consistently well-calibrated uncertainty estimation. We argue that aggregating different views of crowd-annotations is an effective and minimal intervention to acquire soft-labels which induce robust classifiers despite the inconsistency of the individual soft-labeling methods.

Modern health care systems are conducting continuous, automated surveillance of the electronic medical record (EMR) to identify adverse events with increasing frequency; however, many events such as sepsis do not have elucidated prodromes (i.e., event chains) that can be used to identify and intercept the adverse event early in its course. Clinically relevant and interpretable results require a framework that can (i) infer temporal interactions across multiple patient features found in EMR data (e.g., Labs, vital signs, etc.) and (ii) identify patterns that precede and are specific to an impending adverse event (e.g., sepsis). In this work, we propose a linear multivariate Hawkes process model, coupled with ReLU link function, to recover a Granger Causal (GC) graph with both exciting and inhibiting effects. We develop a scalable two-phase gradient-based method to obtain a maximum surrogate-likelihood estimator, which is shown to be effective via extensive numerical simulation. Our method is subsequently extended to a data set of patients admitted to Grady hospital system in Atlanta, GA, USA, where the estimated GC graph identifies several highly interpretable GC chains that precede sepsis. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/SongWei-GT/two-phase-MHP}.

Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks. Several methods, ranging from temperature scaling to different Bayesian treatments of neural networks, have been proposed to mitigate overconfidence, most often supported by the numerical observation that they yield better calibrated uncertainty measures. In this work, we provide a sharp comparison between popular uncertainty measures for binary classification in a mathematically tractable model for overparametrized neural networks: the random features model. We discuss a trade-off between classification accuracy and calibration, unveiling a double descent like behavior in the calibration curve of optimally regularized estimators as a function of overparametrization. This is in contrast with the empirical Bayes method, which we show to be well calibrated in our setting despite the higher generalization error and overparametrization.

Classification model selection is a process of identifying a suitable model class for a given classification task on a dataset. Traditionally, model selection is based on cross-validation, meta-learning, and user preferences, which are often time-consuming and resource-intensive. The performance of any machine learning classification task depends on the choice of the model class, the learning algorithm, and the dataset's characteristics. Our work proposes a novel method for automatic classification model selection from a set of candidate model classes by determining the empirical model-fitness for a dataset based only on its clustering indices. Clustering Indices measure the ability of a clustering algorithm to induce good quality neighborhoods with similar data characteristics. We propose a regression task for a given model class, where the clustering indices of a given dataset form the features and the dependent variable represents the expected classification performance. We compute the dataset clustering indices and directly predict the expected classification performance using the learned regressor for each candidate model class to recommend a suitable model class for dataset classification. We evaluate our model selection method through cross-validation with 60 publicly available binary class datasets and show that our top3 model recommendation is accurate for over 45 of 60 datasets. We also propose an end-to-end Automated ML system for data classification based on our model selection method. We evaluate our end-to-end system against popular commercial and noncommercial Automated ML systems using a different collection of 25 public domain binary class datasets. We show that the proposed system outperforms other methods with an excellent average rank of 1.68.

Existing models in cognitive science typically assume human categorization as graded generalization behavior in a multidimensional psychological space. However, category representations in these models may suffer from the curse of dimensionality in a natural setting. People generally rely on a tractable yet sufficient set of features to understand the complex environment. We propose a rational model of categorization based on a hierarchical mixture of probabilistic principal components, that simultaneously learn category representations and an economical collection of features. The model captures dimensional biases in human categorization and supports zero-shot learning. We further exploit a generative process within a low-dimensional latent space to provide a better account of categorization with high-dimensional stimuli.

Deep Learning has achieved tremendous results by pushing the frontier of automation in diverse domains. Unfortunately, current neural network architectures are not explainable by design. In this paper, we propose a novel method that trains deep hypernetworks to generate explainable linear models. Our models retain the accuracy of black-box deep networks while offering free lunch explainability by design. Specifically, our explainable approach requires the same runtime and memory resources as black-box deep models, ensuring practical feasibility. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our explainable deep networks are as accurate as state-of-the-art classifiers on tabular data. On the other hand, we showcase the interpretability of our method on a recent benchmark by empirically comparing prediction explainers. The experimental results reveal that our models are not only as accurate as their black-box deep-learning counterparts but also as interpretable as state-of-the-art explanation techniques.

Probabilistic logical rule learning has shown great strength in logical rule mining and knowledge graph completion. It learns logical rules to predict missing edges by reasoning on existing edges in the knowledge graph. However, previous efforts have largely been limited to only modeling chain-like Horn clauses such as $R_1(x,z)\land R_2(z,y)\Rightarrow H(x,y)$. This formulation overlooks additional contextual information from neighboring sub-graphs of entity variables $x$, $y$ and $z$. Intuitively, there is a large gap here, as local sub-graphs have been found to provide important information for knowledge graph completion. Inspired by these observations, we propose Logical Entity RePresentation (LERP) to encode contextual information of entities in the knowledge graph. A LERP is designed as a vector of probabilistic logical functions on the entity's neighboring sub-graph. It is an interpretable representation while allowing for differentiable optimization. We can then incorporate LERP into probabilistic logical rule learning to learn more expressive rules. Empirical results demonstrate that with LERP, our model outperforms other rule learning methods in knowledge graph completion and is comparable or even superior to state-of-the-art black-box methods. Moreover, we find that our model can discover a more expressive family of logical rules. LERP can also be further combined with embedding learning methods like TransE to make it more interpretable.

Probabilistic graphical models have become an important unsupervised learning tool for detecting network structures for a variety of problems, including the estimation of functional neuronal connectivity from two-photon calcium imaging data. However, in the context of calcium imaging, technological limitations only allow for partially overlapping layers of neurons in a brain region of interest to be jointly recorded. In this case, graph estimation for the full data requires inference for edge selection when many pairs of neurons have no simultaneous observations. This leads to the Graph Quilting problem, which seeks to estimate a graph in the presence of block-missingness in the empirical covariance matrix. Solutions for the Graph Quilting problem have previously been studied for Gaussian graphical models; however, neural activity data from calcium imaging are often non-Gaussian, thereby requiring a more flexible modeling approach. Thus, in our work, we study two approaches for nonparanormal Graph Quilting based on the Gaussian copula graphical model, namely a maximum likelihood procedure and a low-rank based framework. We provide theoretical guarantees on edge recovery for the former approach under similar conditions to those previously developed for the Gaussian setting, and we investigate the empirical performance of both methods using simulations as well as real data calcium imaging data. Our approaches yield more scientifically meaningful functional connectivity estimates compared to existing Gaussian graph quilting methods for this calcium imaging data set.