Self-supervised pre-trained models extract general-purpose representations from data, and quantifying how reliable they are is crucial because many downstream models use these representations as input for their own tasks. To this end, we first introduce a formal definition of representation reliability: the representation for a given test input is considered to be reliable if the downstream models built on top of that representation can consistently generate accurate predictions for that test point. It is desired to estimate the representation reliability without knowing the downstream tasks a priori. We provide a negative result showing that existing frameworks for uncertainty quantification in supervised learning are not suitable for this purpose. As an alternative, we propose an ensemble-based method for quantifying representation reliability, based on the concept of neighborhood consistency in the representation spaces across various pre-trained models. More specifically, the key insight is to use shared neighboring points as anchors to align different representation spaces. We demonstrate through comprehensive numerical experiments that our method is capable of predicting representation reliability with high accuracy.

When formulated using Bayesian networks, two standard decision algorithms (Evidential Decision Theory and Causal Decision Theory) can be shown to fail systematically when faced with aspects of the prisoner's dilemma and so-called "Newcomblike" problems. We describe a new form of decision algorithm, called Timeless Decision Theory, which consistently wins on these problems.

Inference of causal structures from observational data is a key component of causal machine learning; in practice, this data may be incompletely observed. Prior work has demonstrated that adversarial perturbations of completely observed training data may be used to force the learning of inaccurate causal structural models (SCMs). However, when the data can be audited for correctness (e.g., it is crytographically signed by its source), this adversarial mechanism is invalidated. This work introduces a novel attack methodology wherein the adversary deceptively omits a portion of the true training data to bias the learned causal structures in a desired manner. Theoretically sound attack mechanisms are derived for the case of arbitrary SCMs, and a sample-efficient learning-based heuristic is given for Gaussian SCMs. Experimental validation of these approaches on real and synthetic data sets demonstrates the effectiveness of adversarial missingness attacks at deceiving popular causal structure learning algorithms.

Bias mitigation methods for binary classification decision-making systems have been widely researched due to the ever-growing importance of designing fair machine learning processes that are impartial and do not discriminate against individuals or groups based on protected personal characteristics. In this paper, we present a structured overview of the research landscape for bias mitigation methods, report on their benefits and limitations, and provide recommendations for the development of future bias mitigation methods for binary classification.

Factor analysis (FA) is a statistical tool for studying how observed variables with some mutual dependences can be expressed as functions of mutually independent unobserved factors, and it is widely applied throughout the psychological, biological, and physical sciences. We revisit this classic method from the comparatively new perspective given by advancements in causal discovery and deep learning, introducing a framework for Neuro-Causal Factor Analysis (NCFA). Our approach is fully nonparametric: it identifies factors via latent causal discovery methods and then uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) that is constrained to abide by the Markov factorization of the distribution with respect to the learned graph. We evaluate NCFA on real and synthetic data sets, finding that it performs comparably to standard VAEs on data reconstruction tasks but with the advantages of sparser architecture, lower model complexity, and causal interpretability. Unlike traditional FA methods, our proposed NCFA method allows learning and reasoning about the latent factors underlying observed data from a justifiably causal perspective, even when the relations between factors and measurements are highly nonlinear.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via either Monte Carlo or expectation-maximization methods. In this work we introduce an alternative, variational inference algorithm for Markov jump processes which relies on neural ordinary differential equations, and is trainable via back-propagation. Our methodology learns neural, continuous-time representations of the observed data, that are used to approximate the initial distribution and time-dependent transition probability rates of the posterior Markov jump process. The time-independent rates of the prior process are in contrast trained akin to generative adversarial networks. We test our approach on synthetic data sampled from ground-truth Markov jump processes, experimental switching ion channel data and molecular dynamics simulations. Source code to reproduce our experiments is available online.

We develop a method that addresses the problem of causality for multivariate time series with few assumptions. It consists of Causality defines the relationship between cause and effect. In multivariate merging a causal discovery algorithm, the PC algorithm [6], with an time series field, this notion allows to characterize the information theoretic-based causal inference measure, the Partial links between several time series considering temporal lags. These Mutual Information from Mixed Embedding [7] (PMIME). Based on phenomena are particularly important in medicine to analyze the information theory, the PMIME allows to limit assumptions on the effect of a drug for example, in manufacturing to detect the causes data but also on the links between time series. With this measure, of an anomaly in a complex system or in social sciences... Most of the PC algorithm gives causal relationships among multivariate the time, studying these complex systems is made through correlation time series, by representing the causality with a Directed Acyclic only. But correlation can lead to spurious relationships.

We introduce the problem of active causal structure learning with advice. In the typical well-studied setting, the learning algorithm is given the essential graph for the observational distribution and is asked to recover the underlying causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) $G^*$ while minimizing the number of interventions made. In our setting, we are additionally given side information about $G^*$ as advice, e.g. a DAG $G$ purported to be $G^*$. We ask whether the learning algorithm can benefit from the advice when it is close to being correct, while still having worst-case guarantees even when the advice is arbitrarily bad. Our work is in the same space as the growing body of research on algorithms with predictions. When the advice is a DAG $G$, we design an adaptive search algorithm to recover $G^*$ whose intervention cost is at most $O(\max\{1, \log \psi\})$ times the cost for verifying $G^*$; here, $\psi$ is a distance measure between $G$ and $G^*$ that is upper bounded by the number of variables $n$, and is exactly 0 when $G=G^*$. Our approximation factor matches the state-of-the-art for the advice-less setting.

This paper presents a stochastic differential equation (SDE) approach for general-purpose image restoration. The key construction consists in a mean-reverting SDE that transforms a high-quality image into a degraded counterpart as a mean state with fixed Gaussian noise. Then, by simulating the corresponding reverse-time SDE, we are able to restore the origin of the low-quality image without relying on any task-specific prior knowledge. Crucially, the proposed mean-reverting SDE has a closed-form solution, allowing us to compute the ground truth time-dependent score and learn it with a neural network. Moreover, we propose a maximum likelihood objective to learn an optimal reverse trajectory that stabilizes the training and improves the restoration results. The experiments show that our proposed method achieves highly competitive performance in quantitative comparisons on image deraining, deblurring, and denoising, setting a new state-of-the-art on two deraining datasets. Finally, the general applicability of our approach is further demonstrated via qualitative results on image super-resolution, inpainting, and dehazing. Code is available at https://github.com/Algolzw/image-restoration-sde.

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) hinges on the efficient training of modern deep neural networks (DNNs) for non-convex optimization and uncertainty quantification, which boils down to a non-convex Bayesian learning problem. A standard tool to handle the problem is Langevin Monte Carlo, which proposes to approximate the posterior distribution with theoretical guarantees. In this thesis, we start with the replica exchange Langevin Monte Carlo (also known as parallel tempering), which proposes appropriate swaps between exploration and exploitation to achieve accelerations. However, the na\"ive extension of swaps to big data problems leads to a large bias, and bias-corrected swaps are required. Such a mechanism leads to few effective swaps and insignificant accelerations. To alleviate this issue, we first propose a control variates method to reduce the variance of noisy energy estimators and show a potential to accelerate the exponential convergence. We also present the population-chain replica exchange based on non-reversibility and obtain an optimal round-trip rate for deep learning. In the second part of the thesis, we study scalable dynamic importance sampling algorithms based on stochastic approximation. Traditional dynamic importance sampling algorithms have achieved success, however, the lack of scalability has greatly limited their extensions to big data. To handle this scalability issue, we resolve the vanishing gradient problem and propose two dynamic importance sampling algorithms. Theoretically, we establish the stability condition for the underlying ordinary differential equation (ODE) system and guarantee the asymptotic convergence of the latent variable to the desired fixed point. Interestingly, such a result still holds given non-convex energy landscapes.