Neuroprostheses show potential in restoring lost sensory function and enhancing human capabilities, but the sensations produced by current devices often seem unnatural or distorted. Exact placement of implants and differences in individual perception lead to significant variations in stimulus response, making personalized stimulus optimization a key challenge. Bayesian optimization could be used to optimize patient-specific stimulation parameters with limited noisy observations, but is not feasible for high-dimensional stimuli. Alternatively, deep learning models can optimize stimulus encoding strategies, but typically assume perfect knowledge of patient-specific variations. Here we propose a novel, practically feasible approach that overcomes both of these fundamental limitations. First, a deep encoder network is trained to produce optimal stimuli for any individual patient by inverting a forward model mapping electrical stimuli to visual percepts. Second, a preferential Bayesian optimization strategy utilizes this encoder to optimize patient-specific parameters for a new patient, using a minimal number of pairwise comparisons between candidate stimuli. We demonstrate the viability of this approach on a novel, state-of-the-art visual prosthesis model. We show that our approach quickly learns a personalized stimulus encoder, leads to dramatic improvements in the quality of restored vision, and is robust to noisy patient feedback and misspecifications in the underlying forward model. Overall, our results suggest that combining the strengths of deep learning and Bayesian optimization could significantly improve the perceptual experience of patients fitted with visual prostheses and may prove a viable solution for a range of neuroprosthetic technologies.

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often intractable and model simulation may be computationally burdensome. Fortunately, in many of these situations, it is possible to adopt a surrogate model or approximate likelihood function. It may be convenient to conduct Bayesian inference directly with the surrogate, but this can result in bias and poor uncertainty quantification. In this paper we propose a new method for adjusting approximate posterior samples to reduce bias and produce more accurate uncertainty quantification. We do this by optimizing a transform of the approximate posterior that maximizes a scoring rule. Our approach requires only a (fixed) small number of complex model simulations and is numerically stable. We demonstrate good performance of the new method on several examples of increasing complexity.

We introduce IMP-MARL, an open-source suite of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) environments for large-scale Infrastructure Management Planning (IMP), offering a platform for benchmarking the scalability of cooperative MARL methods in real-world engineering applications. In IMP, a multi-component engineering system is subject to a risk of failure due to its components' damage condition. Specifically, each agent plans inspections and repairs for a specific system component, aiming to minimise maintenance costs while cooperating to minimise system failure risk. With IMP-MARL, we release several environments including one related to offshore wind structural systems, in an effort to meet today's needs to improve management strategies to support sustainable and reliable energy systems. Supported by IMP practical engineering environments featuring up to 100 agents, we conduct a benchmark campaign, where the scalability and performance of state-of-the-art cooperative MARL methods are compared against expert-based heuristic policies. The results reveal that centralised training with decentralised execution methods scale better with the number of agents than fully centralised or decentralised RL approaches, while also outperforming expert-based heuristic policies in most IMP environments. Based on our findings, we additionally outline remaining cooperation and scalability challenges that future MARL methods should still address. Through IMP-MARL, we encourage the implementation of new environments and the further development of MARL methods.

Neural posterior estimation methods based on discrete normalizing flows have become established tools for simulation-based inference (SBI), but scaling them to high-dimensional problems can be challenging. Building on recent advances in generative modeling, we here present flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE), a technique for SBI using continuous normalizing flows. Like diffusion models, and in contrast to discrete flows, flow matching allows for unconstrained architectures, providing enhanced flexibility for complex data modalities. Flow matching, therefore, enables exact density evaluation, fast training, and seamless scalability to large architectures--making it ideal for SBI. We show that FMPE achieves competitive performance on an established SBI benchmark, and then demonstrate its improved scalability on a challenging scientific problem: for gravitational-wave inference, FMPE outperforms methods based on comparable discrete flows, reducing training time by 30% with substantially improved accuracy. Our work underscores the potential of FMPE to enhance performance in challenging inference scenarios, thereby paving the way for more advanced applications to scientific problems.

This paper provides statistical sample complexity bounds for score-matching and its applications in causal discovery. We demonstrate that accurate estimation of the score function is achievable by training a standard deep ReLU neural network using stochastic gradient descent. We establish bounds on the error rate of recovering causal relationships using the score-matching-based causal discovery method of Rolland et al. [2022], assuming a sufficiently good estimation of the score function. Finally, we analyze the upper bound of score-matching estimation within the score-based generative modeling, which has been applied for causal discovery but is also of independent interest within the domain of generative models.

Deep learning's immense capabilities are often constrained by the complexity of its models, leading to an increasing demand for effective sparsification techniques. Bayesian sparsification for deep learning emerges as a crucial approach, facilitating the design of models that are both computationally efficient and competitive in terms of performance across various deep learning applications. The state-of-the-art -- in Bayesian sparsification of deep neural networks -- combines structural shrinkage priors on model weights with an approximate inference scheme based on stochastic variational inference. However, model inversion of the full generative model is exceptionally computationally demanding, especially when compared to standard deep learning of point estimates. In this context, we advocate for the use of Bayesian model reduction (BMR) as a more efficient alternative for pruning of model weights. As a generalization of the Savage-Dickey ratio, BMR allows a post-hoc elimination of redundant model weights based on the posterior estimates under a straightforward (non-hierarchical) generative model. Our comparative study highlights the advantages of the BMR method relative to established approaches based on hierarchical horseshoe priors over model weights. We illustrate the potential of BMR across various deep learning architectures, from classical networks like LeNet to modern frameworks such as Vision Transformers and MLP-Mixers.

Differential privacy guarantees allow the results of a statistical analysis involving sensitive data to be released without compromising the privacy of any individual taking part. Achieving such guarantees generally requires the injection of noise, either directly into parameter estimates or into the estimation process. Instead of artificially introducing perturbations, sampling from Bayesian posterior distributions has been shown to be a special case of the exponential mechanism, producing consistent, and efficient private estimates without altering the data generative process. The application of current approaches has, however, been limited by their strong bounding assumptions which do not hold for basic models, such as simple linear regressors. To ameliorate this, we propose $\beta$D-Bayes, a posterior sampling scheme from a generalised posterior targeting the minimisation of the $\beta$-divergence between the model and the data generating process. This provides private estimation that is generally applicable without requiring changes to the underlying model and consistently learns the data generating parameter. We show that $\beta$D-Bayes produces more precise inference estimation for the same privacy guarantees, and further facilitates differentially private estimation via posterior sampling for complex classifiers and continuous regression models such as neural networks for the first time.

Minimising upper bounds on the population risk or the generalisation gap has been widely used in structural risk minimisation (SRM) -- this is in particular at the core of PAC-Bayesian learning. Despite its successes and unfailing surge of interest in recent years, a limitation of the PAC-Bayesian framework is that most bounds involve a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence term (or its variations), which might exhibit erratic behavior and fail to capture the underlying geometric structure of the learning problem -- hence restricting its use in practical applications. As a remedy, recent studies have attempted to replace the KL divergence in the PAC-Bayesian bounds with the Wasserstein distance. Even though these bounds alleviated the aforementioned issues to a certain extent, they either hold in expectation, are for bounded losses, or are nontrivial to minimize in an SRM framework. In this work, we contribute to this line of research and prove novel Wasserstein distance-based PAC-Bayesian generalisation bounds for both batch learning with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data, and online learning with potentially non-i.i.d. data. Contrary to previous art, our bounds are stronger in the sense that (i) they hold with high probability, (ii) they apply to unbounded (potentially heavy-tailed) losses, and (iii) they lead to optimizable training objectives that can be used in SRM. As a result we derive novel Wasserstein-based PAC-Bayesian learning algorithms and we illustrate their empirical advantage on a variety of experiments.

To check the accuracy of Bayesian computations, it is common to use rank-based simulation-based calibration (SBC). However, SBC has drawbacks: The test statistic is somewhat ad-hoc, interactions are difficult to examine, multiple testing is a challenge, and the resulting p-value is not a divergence metric. We propose to replace the marginal rank test with a flexible classification approach that learns test statistics from data. This measure typically has a higher statistical power than the SBC rank test and returns an interpretable divergence measure of miscalibration, computed from classification accuracy. This approach can be used with different data generating processes to address likelihood-free inference or traditional inference methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational inference. We illustrate an automated implementation using neural networks and statistically-inspired features, and validate the method with numerical and real data experiments.

A Bayesian pseudocoreset is a compact synthetic dataset summarizing essential information of a large-scale dataset and thus can be used as a proxy dataset for scalable Bayesian inference. Typically, a Bayesian pseudocoreset is constructed by minimizing a divergence measure between the posterior conditioning on the pseudocoreset and the posterior conditioning on the full dataset. However, evaluating the divergence can be challenging, particularly for the models like deep neural networks having high-dimensional parameters. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian pseudocoreset construction method that operates on a function space. Unlike previous methods, which construct and match the coreset and full data posteriors in the space of model parameters (weights), our method constructs variational approximations to the coreset posterior on a function space and matches it to the full data posterior in the function space. By working directly on the function space, our method could bypass several challenges that may arise when working on a weight space, including limited scalability and multi-modality issue. Through various experiments, we demonstrate that the Bayesian pseudocoresets constructed from our method enjoys enhanced uncertainty quantification and better robustness across various model architectures.