Understanding the complex mechanisms of the brain can be unraveled by extracting the Dynamic Effective Connectome (DEC). Recently, score-based Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) discovery methods have shown significant improvements in extracting the causal structure and inferring effective connectivity. However, learning DEC through these methods still faces two main challenges: one with the fundamental impotence of high-dimensional dynamic DAG discovery methods and the other with the low quality of fMRI data. In this paper, we introduce Bayesian Dynamic DAG learning with M-matrices Acyclicity characterization \textbf{(BDyMA)} method to address the challenges in discovering DEC. The presented dynamic causal model enables us to discover bidirected edges as well. Leveraging an unconstrained framework in the BDyMA method leads to more accurate results in detecting high-dimensional networks, achieving sparser outcomes, making it particularly suitable for extracting DEC. Additionally, the score function of the BDyMA method allows the incorporation of prior knowledge into the process of dynamic causal discovery which further enhances the accuracy of results. Comprehensive simulations on synthetic data and experiments on Human Connectome Project (HCP) data demonstrate that our method can handle both of the two main challenges, yielding more accurate and reliable DEC compared to state-of-the-art and baseline methods. Additionally, we investigate the trustworthiness of DTI data as prior knowledge for DEC discovery and show the improvements in DEC discovery when the DTI data is incorporated into the process.

One of the fundamental cognitive abilities of humans is to quickly resolve uncertainty by generating hypotheses and testing them via active trials. Encountering a novel phenomenon accompanied by ambiguous cause-effect relationships, humans make hypotheses against data, conduct inferences from observation, test their theory via experimentation, and correct the proposition if inconsistency arises. These iterative processes persist until the underlying mechanism becomes clear. In this work, we devise the IVRE (pronounced as "ivory") environment for evaluating artificial agents' reasoning ability under uncertainty. IVRE is an interactive environment featuring rich scenarios centered around Blicket detection. Agents in IVRE are placed into environments with various ambiguous action-effect pairs and asked to determine each object's role. They are encouraged to propose effective and efficient experiments to validate their hypotheses based on observations and actively gather new information. The game ends when all uncertainties are resolved or the maximum number of trials is consumed. By evaluating modern artificial agents in IVRE, we notice a clear failure of today's learning methods compared to humans. Such inefficacy in interactive reasoning ability under uncertainty calls for future research in building human-like intelligence.

A rare event is defined by a low probability of occurrence. Accurate estimation of such small probabilities is of utmost importance across diverse domains. Conventional Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, demanding an exorbitant number of samples to achieve reliable estimates. Inspired by the exact sampling capabilities of normalizing flows, we revisit this challenge and propose normalizing flow assisted importance sampling, termed NOFIS. NOFIS first learns a sequence of proposal distributions associated with predefined nested subset events by minimizing KL divergence losses. Next, it estimates the rare event probability by utilizing importance sampling in conjunction with the last proposal. The efficacy of our NOFIS method is substantiated through comprehensive qualitative visualizations, affirming the optimality of the learned proposal distribution, as well as a series of quantitative experiments encompassing $10$ distinct test cases, which highlight NOFIS's superiority over baseline approaches.

In the theory of lossy compression, the rate-distortion (R-D) function $R(D)$ describes how much a data source can be compressed (in bit-rate) at any given level of fidelity (distortion). Obtaining $R(D)$ for a given data source establishes the fundamental performance limit for all compression algorithms. We propose a new method to estimate $R(D)$ from the perspective of optimal transport. Unlike the classic Blahut--Arimoto algorithm which fixes the support of the reproduction distribution in advance, our Wasserstein gradient descent algorithm learns the support of the optimal reproduction distribution by moving particles. We prove its local convergence and analyze the sample complexity of our R-D estimator based on a connection to entropic optimal transport. Experimentally, we obtain comparable or tighter bounds than state-of-the-art neural network methods on low-rate sources while requiring considerably less tuning and computation effort. We also highlight a connection to maximum-likelihood deconvolution and introduce a new class of sources that can be used as test cases with known solutions to the R-D problem.

Gaussian processes are used in many machine learning applications that rely on uncertainty quantification. Recently, computational tools for working with these models in geometric settings, such as when inputs lie on a Riemannian manifold, have been developed. This raises the question: can these intrinsic models be shown theoretically to lead to better performance, compared to simply embedding all relevant quantities into $\mathbb{R}^d$ and using the restriction of an ordinary Euclidean Gaussian process? To study this, we prove optimal contraction rates for intrinsic Mat\'ern Gaussian processes defined on compact Riemannian manifolds. We also prove analogous rates for extrinsic processes using trace and extension theorems between manifold and ambient Sobolev spaces: somewhat surprisingly, the rates obtained turn out to coincide with those of the intrinsic processes, provided that their smoothness parameters are matched appropriately. We illustrate these rates empirically on a number of examples, which, mirroring prior work, show that intrinsic processes can achieve better performance in practice. Therefore, our work shows that finer-grained analyses are needed to distinguish between different levels of data-efficiency of geometric Gaussian processes, particularly in settings which involve small data set sizes and non-asymptotic behavior.

Understanding the parameter estimation of softmax gating Gaussian mixture of experts has remained a long-standing open problem in the literature. It is mainly due to three fundamental theoretical challenges associated with the softmax gating function: (i) the identifiability only up to the translation of parameters; (ii) the intrinsic interaction via partial differential equations between the softmax gating and the expert functions in the Gaussian density; (iii) the complex dependence between the numerator and denominator of the conditional density of softmax gating Gaussian mixture of experts. We resolve these challenges by proposing novel Voronoi loss functions among parameters and establishing the convergence rates of maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for solving parameter estimation in these models. When the true number of experts is unknown and over-specified, our findings show a connection between the convergence rate of the MLE and a solvability problem of a system of polynomial equations.

The Rasch model is one of the most fundamental models in \emph{item response theory} and has wide-ranging applications from education testing to recommendation systems. In a universe with $n$ users and $m$ items, the Rasch model assumes that the binary response $X_{li} \in \{0,1\}$ of a user $l$ with parameter $\theta^*_l$ to an item $i$ with parameter $\beta^*_i$ (e.g., a user likes a movie, a student correctly solves a problem) is distributed as $\Pr(X_{li}=1) = 1/(1 + \exp{-(\theta^*_l - \beta^*_i)})$. In this paper, we propose a \emph{new item estimation} algorithm for this celebrated model (i.e., to estimate $\beta^*$). The core of our algorithm is the computation of the stationary distribution of a Markov chain defined on an item-item graph. We complement our algorithmic contributions with finite-sample error guarantees, the first of their kind in the literature, showing that our algorithm is consistent and enjoys favorable optimality properties. We discuss practical modifications to accelerate and robustify the algorithm that practitioners can adopt. Experiments on synthetic and real-life datasets, ranging from small education testing datasets to large recommendation systems datasets show that our algorithm is scalable, accurate, and competitive with the most commonly used methods in the literature.

Adversarial attacks can mislead neural network classifiers. The defense against adversarial attacks is important for AI safety. Adversarial purification is a family of approaches that defend adversarial attacks with suitable pre-processing. Diffusion models have been shown to be effective for adversarial purification. Despite their success, many aspects of diffusion purification still remain unexplored. In this paper, we investigate and improve upon three limiting designs of diffusion purification: the use of an improved diffusion model, advanced numerical simulation techniques, and optimal control of randomness. Based on our findings, we propose Purify++, a new diffusion purification algorithm that is now the state-of-the-art purification method against several adversarial attacks. Our work presents a systematic exploration of the limits of diffusion purification methods.

This paper focuses on the data-insufficiency problem in multi-task learning within an episodic training setup. Specifically, we explore the potential of heterogeneous information across tasks and meta-knowledge among episodes to effectively tackle each task with limited data. Existing meta-learning methods often fail to take advantage of crucial heterogeneous information in a single episode, while multi-task learning models neglect reusing experience from earlier episodes. To address the problem of insufficient data, we develop Heterogeneous Neural Processes (HNPs) for the episodic multi-task setup. Within the framework of hierarchical Bayes, HNPs effectively capitalize on prior experiences as meta-knowledge and capture task-relatedness among heterogeneous tasks, mitigating data-insufficiency. Meanwhile, transformer-structured inference modules are designed to enable efficient inferences toward meta-knowledge and task-relatedness. In this way, HNPs can learn more powerful functional priors for adapting to novel heterogeneous tasks in each meta-test episode. Experimental results show the superior performance of the proposed HNPs over typical baselines, and ablation studies verify the effectiveness of the designed inference modules.

We present a new method of training energy-based models (EBMs) for anomaly detection that leverages low-dimensional structures within data. The proposed algorithm, Manifold Projection-Diffusion Recovery (MPDR), first perturbs a data point along a low-dimensional manifold that approximates the training dataset. Then, EBM is trained to maximize the probability of recovering the original data. The training involves the generation of negative samples via MCMC, as in conventional EBM training, but from a different distribution concentrated near the manifold. The resulting near-manifold negative samples are highly informative, reflecting relevant modes of variation in data. An energy function of MPDR effectively learns accurate boundaries of the training data distribution and excels at detecting out-of-distribution samples. Experimental results show that MPDR exhibits strong performance across various anomaly detection tasks involving diverse data types, such as images, vectors, and acoustic signals.