The ability to accurately predict others' behavior is central to the safety and efficiency of interactive robotics. Unfortunately, robots often lack access to key information on which these predictions may hinge, such as other agents' goals, attention, and willingness to cooperate. Dual control theory addresses this challenge by treating unknown parameters of a predictive model as stochastic hidden states and inferring their values at runtime using information gathered during system operation. While able to optimally and automatically trade off exploration and exploitation, dual control is computationally intractable for general interactive motion planning. In this paper, we present a novel algorithmic approach to enable active uncertainty reduction for interactive motion planning based on the implicit dual control paradigm. Our approach relies on sampling-based approximation of stochastic dynamic programming, leading to a model predictive control problem that can be readily solved by real-time gradient-based optimization methods. The resulting policy is shown to preserve the dual control effect for a broad class of predictive models with both continuous and categorical uncertainty. To ensure the safe operation of the interacting agents, we use a runtime safety filter (also referred to as a "shielding" scheme), which overrides the robot's dual control policy with a safety fallback strategy when a safety-critical event is imminent. We then augment the dual control framework with an improved variant of the recently proposed shielding-aware robust planning scheme, which proactively balances the nominal planning performance with the risk of high-cost emergency maneuvers triggered by low-probability agent behaviors. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach with both simulated driving studies and hardware experiments using 1/10 scale autonomous vehicles.

Time-dependent data often exhibit characteristics, such as non-stationarity and heavy-tailed errors, that would be inappropriate to model with the typical assumptions used in popular models. Thus, more flexible approaches are required to be able to accommodate such issues. To this end, we propose a Bayesian mixture of student-$t$ processes with an overall-local scale structure for the covariance. Moreover, we use a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler in order to perform online inference as data arrive in real-time. We demonstrate the superiority of our proposed approach compared to typical Gaussian process-based models on real-world data sets in order to prove the necessity of using mixtures of student-$t$ processes.

By now Bayesian methods are routinely used in practice for solving inverse problems. In inverse problems the parameter or signal of interest is observed only indirectly, as an image of a given map, and the observations are typically further corrupted with noise. Bayes offers a natural way to regularize these problems via the prior distribution and provides a probabilistic solution, quantifying the remaining uncertainty in the problem. However, the computational costs of standard, sampling based Bayesian approaches can be overly large in such complex models. Therefore, in practice variational Bayes is becoming increasingly popular. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of these methods is still relatively limited, especially in context of inverse problems. In our analysis we investigate variational Bayesian methods for Gaussian process priors to solve linear inverse problems. We consider both mildly and severely ill-posed inverse problems and work with the popular inducing variables variational Bayes approach proposed by Titsias in 2009. We derive posterior contraction rates for the variational posterior in general settings and show that the minimax estimation rate can be attained by correctly tunned procedures. As specific examples we consider a collection of inverse problems including the heat equation, Volterra operator and Radon transform and inducing variable methods based on population and empirical spectral features.

The fusion of causal models with deep learning introducing increasingly intricate data sets, such as the causal associations within images or between textual components, has surfaced as a focal research area. Nonetheless, the broadening of original causal concepts and theories to such complex, non-statistical data has been met with serious challenges. In response, our study proposes redefinitions of causal data into three distinct categories from the standpoint of causal structure and representation: definite data, semi-definite data, and indefinite data. Definite data chiefly pertains to statistical data used in conventional causal scenarios, while semi-definite data refers to a spectrum of data formats germane to deep learning, including time-series, images, text, and others. Indefinite data is an emergent research sphere inferred from the progression of data forms by us. To comprehensively present these three data paradigms, we elaborate on their formal definitions, differences manifested in datasets, resolution pathways, and development of research. We summarize key tasks and achievements pertaining to definite and semi-definite data from myriad research undertakings, present a roadmap for indefinite data, beginning with its current research conundrums. Lastly, we classify and scrutinize the key datasets presently utilized within these three paradigms.

We study the asymptotic learning rates under linear and log-linear combination rules of belief vectors in a distributed hypothesis testing problem. We show that under both combination strategies, agents are able to learn the truth exponentially fast, with a faster rate under log-linear fusion. We examine the gap between the rates in terms of network connectivity and information diversity. We also provide closed-form expressions for special cases involving federated architectures and exchangeable networks.

In this paper, we focus on the data-driven discovery of a general second-order particle-based model that contains many state-of-the-art models for modeling the aggregation and collective behavior of interacting agents of similar size and body type. This model takes the form of a high-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations parameterized by two interaction kernels that appraise the alignment of positions and velocities. We propose a Gaussian Process-based approach to this problem, where the unknown model parameters are marginalized by using two independent Gaussian Process (GP) priors on latent interaction kernels constrained to dynamics and observational data. This results in a nonparametric model for interacting dynamical systems that accounts for uncertainty quantification. We also develop acceleration techniques to improve scalability. Moreover, we perform a theoretical analysis to interpret the methodology and investigate the conditions under which the kernels can be recovered. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on various prototype systems, including the selection of the order of the systems and the types of interactions. In particular, we present applications to modeling two real-world fish motion datasets that display flocking and milling patterns up to 248 dimensions. Despite the use of small data sets, the GP-based approach learns an effective representation of the nonlinear dynamics in these spaces and outperforms competitor methods.

Discovering the causal relationship via recovering the directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure from the observed data is a well-known challenging combinatorial problem. When there are latent variables, the problem becomes even more difficult. In this paper, we first propose a DAG structure recovering algorithm, which is based on the Cholesky factorization of the covariance matrix of the observed data. The algorithm is fast and easy to implement and has theoretical grantees for exact recovery. On synthetic and real-world datasets, the algorithm is significantly faster than previous methods and achieves the state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, under the equal error variances assumption, we incorporate an optimization procedure into the Cholesky factorization based algorithm to handle the DAG recovering problem with latent variables. Numerical simulations show that the modified "Cholesky + optimization" algorithm is able to recover the ground truth graph in most cases and outperforms existing algorithms.

To enable closed form conditioning, a common assumption in Gaussian process (GP) regression is independent and identically distributed Gaussian observation noise. This strong and simplistic assumption is often violated in practice, which leads to unreliable inferences and uncertainty quantification. Unfortunately, existing methods for robustifying GPs break closed-form conditioning, which makes them less attractive to practitioners and significantly more computationally expensive. In this paper, we demonstrate how to perform provably robust and conjugate Gaussian process (RCGP) regression at virtually no additional cost using generalised Bayesian inference. RCGP is particularly versatile as it enables exact conjugate closed form updates in all settings where standard GPs admit them. To demonstrate its strong empirical performance, we deploy RCGP for problems ranging from Bayesian optimisation to sparse variational Gaussian processes.

The $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model for random graphs is commonly used for representing pairwise interactions in a network with degree heterogeneity. Going beyond pairwise interactions, Stasi et al. (2014) introduced the hypergraph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model for capturing degree heterogeneity in networks with higher-order (multi-way) interactions. In this paper we initiate the rigorous study of the hypergraph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model with multiple layers, which allows for hyperedges of different sizes across the layers. To begin with, we derive the rates of convergence of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimate and establish their minimax rate optimality. We also derive the limiting distribution of the ML estimate and construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the model parameters. Next, we consider the goodness-of-fit problem in the hypergraph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model. Specifically, we establish the asymptotic normality of the likelihood ratio (LR) test under the null hypothesis, derive its detection threshold, and also its limiting power at the threshold. Interestingly, the detection threshold of the LR test turns out to be minimax optimal, that is, all tests are asymptotically powerless below this threshold. The theoretical results are further validated in numerical experiments. In addition to developing the theoretical framework for estimation and inference for hypergraph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-models, the above results fill a number of gaps in the graph $\boldsymbol{\beta}$-model literature, such as the minimax optimality of the ML estimates and the non-null properties of the LR test, which, to the best of our knowledge, have not been studied before.

Causal inference of exact individual treatment outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders is rarely possible. Recent work has extended prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees to partially identifiable causal outcomes, by means of a sensitivity model for hidden confounding. In deep learning, predictors can exploit their inductive biases for better generalization out of sample. We argue that the structure inherent to a deep ensemble should inform a tighter partial identification of the causal outcomes that they predict. We therefore introduce an approach termed Caus-Modens, for characterizing causal outcome intervals by modulated ensembles. We present a simple approach to partial identification using existing causal sensitivity models and show empirically that Caus-Modens gives tighter outcome intervals, as measured by the necessary interval size to achieve sufficient coverage. The last of our three diverse benchmarks is a novel usage of GPT-4 for observational experiments with unknown but probeable ground truth.