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 Bayesian Learning


Active Inference and Intentional Behaviour

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in theoretical biology suggest that basal cognition and sentient behaviour are emergent properties of in vitro cell cultures and neuronal networks, respectively. Such neuronal networks spontaneously learn structured behaviours in the absence of reward or reinforcement. In this paper, we characterise this kind of self-organisation through the lens of the free energy principle, i.e., as self-evidencing. We do this by first discussing the definitions of reactive and sentient behaviour in the setting of active inference, which describes the behaviour of agents that model the consequences of their actions. We then introduce a formal account of intentional behaviour, that describes agents as driven by a preferred endpoint or goal in latent state-spaces. We then investigate these forms of (reactive, sentient, and intentional) behaviour using simulations. First, we simulate the aforementioned in vitro experiments, in which neuronal cultures spontaneously learn to play Pong, by implementing nested, free energy minimising processes. The simulations are then used to deconstruct the ensuing predictive behaviour, leading to the distinction between merely reactive, sentient, and intentional behaviour, with the latter formalised in terms of inductive planning. This distinction is further studied using simple machine learning benchmarks (navigation in a grid world and the Tower of Hanoi problem), that show how quickly and efficiently adaptive behaviour emerges under an inductive form of active inference.


Learning to Infer Unobserved Behaviors: Estimating User's Preference for a Site over Other Sites

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A site's recommendation system relies on knowledge of its users' preferences to offer relevant recommendations to them. These preferences are for attributes that comprise items and content shown on the site, and are estimated from the data of users' interactions with the site. Another form of users' preferences is material too, namely, users' preferences for the site over other sites, since that shows users' base level propensities to engage with the site. Estimating users' preferences for the site, however, faces major obstacles because (a) the focal site usually has no data of its users' interactions with other sites; these interactions are users' unobserved behaviors for the focal site; and (b) the Machine Learning literature in recommendation does not offer a model of this situation. Even if (b) is resolved, the problem in (a) persists since without access to data of its users' interactions with other sites, there is no ground truth for evaluation. Moreover, it is most useful when (c) users' preferences for the site can be estimated at the individual level, since the site can then personalize recommendations to individual users. We offer a method to estimate individual user's preference for a focal site, under this premise. In particular, we compute the focal site's share of a user's online engagements without any data from other sites. We show an evaluation framework for the model using only the focal site's data, allowing the site to test the model. We rely upon a Hierarchical Bayes Method and perform estimation in two different ways - Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Stochastic Gradient with Langevin Dynamics. Our results find good support for the approach to computing personalized share of engagement and for its evaluation.


Image Restoration Through Generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Bridge

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion models possess powerful generative capabilities enabling the mapping of noise to data using reverse stochastic differential equations. However, in image restoration tasks, the focus is on the mapping relationship from low-quality images to high-quality images. To address this, we introduced the Generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Bridge (GOUB) model. By leveraging the natural mean-reverting property of the generalized OU process and further adjusting the variance of its steady-state distribution through the Doob's h-transform, we achieve diffusion mappings from point to point with minimal cost. This allows for end-to-end training, enabling the recovery of high-quality images from low-quality ones. Additionally, we uncovered the mathematical essence of some bridge models, all of which are special cases of the GOUB and empirically demonstrated the optimality of our proposed models. Furthermore, benefiting from our distinctive parameterization mechanism, we proposed the Mean-ODE model that is better at capturing pixel-level information and structural perceptions. Experimental results show that both models achieved state-of-the-art results in various tasks, including inpainting, deraining, and super-resolution. Code is available at https://github.com/Hammour-steak/GOUB.


Asset Ownership Identification: Using machine learning to predict enterprise asset ownership

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Asset owner identification is an important first step for any information security organization, allowing organizations the ability to identify and detect data breaches and losses, vulnerabilities, possible attack surfaces, and define effective countermeasures. Using existing asset ownership data, the research utilized an assortment of machine learning algorithms to determine the best classification model to predict an asset's owner. The research ran separate analyses for each enumerated team, then ran a 100 iteration Monte Carlo Cross Validation across Adaboost, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Classification and Regression Trees, and Random Forests. Finally, a visualization dashboard was created to help users understand the asset inventory through interactive exploratory data analysis as well as the ability to understand model evaluation metrics including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for each model. Overall, Adaboost performed the best across all owners with low testing errors below 5% while Naive Bayes performed the worst. The remaining models performed similarly. The fully qualified domain name (FQDN), Classless Inter-Domain Routing (CIDR) CIDR/16, and location were among the most important features.


The Complexity of Optimizing Atomic Congestion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Atomic congestion games are a classic topic in network design, routing, and algorithmic game theory, and are capable of modeling congestion and flow optimization tasks in various application areas. While both the price of anarchy for such games as well as the computational complexity of computing their Nash equilibria are by now well-understood, the computational complexity of computing a system-optimal set of strategies -- that is, a centrally planned routing that minimizes the average cost of agents -- is severely understudied in the literature. We close this gap by identifying the exact boundaries of tractability for the problem through the lens of the parameterized complexity paradigm. After showing that the problem remains highly intractable even on extremely simple networks, we obtain a set of results which demonstrate that the structural parameters which control the computational (in)tractability of the problem are not vertex-separator based in nature (such as, e.g., treewidth), but rather based on edge separators. We conclude by extending our analysis towards the (even more challenging) min-max variant of the problem.


Review of Unsupervised POS Tagging and Its Implications on Language Acquisition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An ability that underlies human syntactic knowledge is determining which words can appear in the similar structures (i.e. grouping words by their syntactic categories). These groupings enable humans to combine structures in order to communicate complex meanings. A foundational question is how do children acquire this ability underlying syntactic knowledge. In exploring this process, we will review various engineering approaches whose goal is similar to that of a child's -- without prior syntactic knowledge, correctly identify the parts of speech (POS) of the words in a sample of text. In reviewing these unsupervised tagging efforts, we will discuss common themes that support the advances in the models and their relevance for language acquisition. For example, we discuss how each model judges success (evaluation metrics), the "additional information" that constrains the POS learning (such as orthographic information), and the context used to determine POS (only previous word, words before and after the target, etc). The identified themes pave the way for future investigations into the cognitive processes that underpin the acquisition of syntactic categories and provide a useful layout of current state of the art unsupervised POS tagging models.


Bayesian Estimate of Mean Proper Scores for Diversity-Enhanced Active Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The effectiveness of active learning largely depends on the sampling efficiency of the acquisition function. Expected Loss Reduction (ELR) focuses on a Bayesian estimate of the reduction in classification error, and more general costs fit in the same framework. We propose Bayesian Estimate of Mean Proper Scores (BEMPS) to estimate the increase in strictly proper scores such as log probability or negative mean square error within this framework. We also prove convergence results for this general class of costs. To facilitate better experimentation with the new acquisition functions, we develop a complementary batch AL algorithm that encourages diversity in the vector of expected changes in scores for unlabeled data. To allow high-performance classifiers, we combine deep ensembles, and dynamic validation set construction on pretrained models, and further speed up the ensemble process with the idea of Monte Carlo Dropout. Extensive experiments on both texts and images show that the use of mean square error and log probability with BEMPS yields robust acquisition functions and well-calibrated classifiers, and consistently outperforms the others tested. The advantages of BEMPS over the others are further supported by a set of qualitative analyses, where we visualise their sampling behaviour using data maps and t-SNE plots.


ChemTime: Rapid and Early Classification for Multivariate Time Series Classification of Chemical Sensors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multivariate time series data are ubiquitous in the application of machine learning to problems in the physical sciences. Chemiresistive sensor arrays are highly promising in chemical detection tasks relevant to industrial, safety, and military applications. Sensor arrays are an inherently multivariate time series data collection tool which demand rapid and accurate classification of arbitrary chemical analytes. Previous research has benchmarked data-agnostic multivariate time series classifiers across diverse multivariate time series supervised tasks in order to find general-purpose classification algorithms. To our knowledge, there has yet to be an effort to survey machine learning and time series classification approaches to chemiresistive hardware sensor arrays for the detection of chemical analytes. In addition to benchmarking existing approaches to multivariate time series classifiers, we incorporate findings from a model survey to propose the novel \textit{ChemTime} approach to sensor array classification for chemical sensing. We design experiments addressing the unique challenges of hardware sensor arrays classification including the rapid classification ability of classifiers and minimization of inference time while maintaining performance for deployed lightweight hardware sensing devices. We find that \textit{ChemTime} is uniquely positioned for the chemical sensing task by combining rapid and early classification of time series with beneficial inference and high accuracy.


Deep Generative Models for Detector Signature Simulation: An Analytical Taxonomy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In modern collider experiments, the quest to explore fundamental interactions between elementary particles has reached unparalleled levels of precision. Signatures from particle physics detectors are low-level objects encoding the physics of collisions. The complete simulation of them in a detector is a memory and storage-intensive task. To address this computational bottleneck in particle physics, "Fast Simulation" has been introduced and refined over the years. The field has seen a surge in interest in surrogate modeling the detector simulation, fueled by the advancements in deep generative models. These models aim to generate responses that are statistically identical to the observed data. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive and exhaustive taxonomic review of the existing literature on the simulation of detector signatures from both methodological and application-wise perspectives. Initially, we formulate the problem of detector signature simulation and discuss its different variations that can be unified. Next, we classify the state-of-the-art methods into four distinct categories based on their underlying model architectures, summarizing their respective generation strategies. We then identify and discuss three key application areas. Finally, we shed light on the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in detector signature simulation, setting the stage for future research and development.


Joint State Estimation and Noise Identification Based on Variational Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this article, the state estimation problems with unknown process noise and measurement noise covariances for both linear and nonlinear systems are considered. By formulating the joint estimation of system state and noise parameters into an optimization problem, a novel adaptive Kalman filter method based on conjugate-computation variational inference, referred to as CVIAKF, is proposed to approximate the joint posterior probability density function of the latent variables. Unlike the existing adaptive Kalman filter methods utilizing variational inference in natural-parameter space, CVIAKF performs optimization in expectation-parameter space, resulting in a faster and simpler solution. Meanwhile, CVIAKF divides optimization objectives into conjugate and non-conjugate parts of nonlinear dynamical models, whereas conjugate computations and stochastic mirror-descent are applied, respectively. Remarkably, the reparameterization trick is used to reduce the variance of stochastic gradients of the non-conjugate parts. The effectiveness of CVIAKF is validated through synthetic and real-world datasets of maneuvering target tracking.