We study the complexity-theoretic boundaries of tractability for three classical problems in the context of Hierarchical Task Network Planning: the validation of a provided plan, whether an executable plan exists, and whether a given state can be reached by some plan. We show that all three problems can be solved in polynomial time on primitive task networks of constant partial order width (and a generalization thereof), whereas for the latter two problems this holds only under a provably necessary restriction to the state space. Next, we obtain an algorithmic meta-theorem along with corresponding lower bounds to identify tight conditions under which general polynomial-time solvability results can be lifted from primitive to general task networks. Finally, we enrich our investigation by analyzing the parameterized complexity of the three considered problems, and show that (1) fixed-parameter tractability for all three problems can be achieved by replacing the partial order width with the vertex cover number of the network as the parameter, and (2) other classical graph-theoretic parameters of the network (including treewidth, treedepth, and the aforementioned partial order width) do not yield fixed-parameter tractability for any of the three problems.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

Widespread adoption of AI for medical decision making is still hindered due to ethical and safety-related concerns. For AI-based decision support systems in healthcare settings it is paramount to be reliable and trustworthy. Common deep learning approaches, however, have the tendency towards overconfidence under data shift. Such inappropriate extrapolation beyond evidence-based scenarios may have dire consequences. This highlights the importance of reliable estimation of local uncertainty and its communication to the end user. While stochastic neural networks have been heralded as a potential solution to these issues, this study investigates their actual reliability in clinical applications. We centered our analysis on the exemplary use case of mortality prediction for ICU hospitalizations using EHR from MIMIC3 study. For predictions on the EHR time series, Encoder-Only Transformer models were employed. Stochasticity of model functions was achieved by incorporating common methods such as Bayesian neural network layers and model ensembles. Our models achieve state of the art performance in terms of discrimination performance (AUC ROC: 0.868+-0.011, AUC PR: 0.554+-0.034) and calibration on the mortality prediction benchmark. However, epistemic uncertainty is critically underestimated by the selected stochastic deep learning methods. A heuristic proof for the responsible collapse of the posterior distribution is provided. Our findings reveal the inadequacy of commonly used stochastic deep learning approaches to reliably recognize OoD samples. In both methods, unsubstantiated model confidence is not prevented due to strongly biased functional posteriors, rendering them inappropriate for reliable clinical decision support. This highlights the need for approaches with more strictly enforced or inherent distance-awareness to known data points, e.g., using kernel-based techniques.

Predicting the trajectory of pedestrians in crowd scenarios is indispensable in self-driving or autonomous mobile robot field because estimating the future locations of pedestrians around is beneficial for policy decision to avoid collision. It is a challenging issue because humans have different walking motions, and the interactions between humans and objects in the current environment, especially between humans themselves, are complex. Previous researchers focused on how to model human-human interactions but neglected the relative importance of interactions. To address this issue, a novel mechanism based on correntropy is introduced. The proposed mechanism not only can measure the relative importance of human-human interactions but also can build personal space for each pedestrian. An interaction module including this data-driven mechanism is further proposed. In the proposed module, the data-driven mechanism can effectively extract the feature representations of dynamic human-human interactions in the scene and calculate the corresponding weights to represent the importance of different interactions. To share such social messages among pedestrians, an interaction-aware architecture based on long short-term memory network for trajectory prediction is designed. Experiments are conducted on two public datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our model can achieve better performance than several latest methods with good performance.

Data quality is crucial for training accurate, unbiased, and trustworthy machine learning models as well as for their correct evaluation. Recent works, however, have shown that even popular datasets used to train and evaluate state-of-the-art models contain a non-negligible amount of erroneous annotations, biases, or artifacts. While practices and guidelines regarding dataset creation projects exist, to our knowledge, large-scale analysis has yet to be performed on how quality management is conducted when creating natural language datasets and whether these recommendations are followed. Therefore, we first survey and summarize recommended quality management practices for dataset creation as described in the literature and provide suggestions for applying them. Then, we compile a corpus of 591 scientific publications introducing text datasets and annotate it for quality-related aspects, such as annotator management, agreement, adjudication, or data validation. Using these annotations, we then analyze how quality management is conducted in practice. A majority of the annotated publications apply good or excellent quality management. However, we deem the effort of 30\% of the works as only subpar. Our analysis also shows common errors, especially when using inter-annotator agreement and computing annotation error rates.

With the rise of deep learning, there has been renewed interest within the process industries to utilize data on large-scale nonlinear sensing and control problems. We identify key statistical and machine learning techniques that have seen practical success in the process industries. To do so, we start with hybrid modeling to provide a methodological framework underlying core application areas: soft sensing, process optimization, and control. Soft sensing contains a wealth of industrial applications of statistical and machine learning methods. We quantitatively identify research trends, allowing insight into the most successful techniques in practice. We consider two distinct flavors for data-driven optimization and control: hybrid modeling in conjunction with mathematical programming techniques and reinforcement learning. Throughout these application areas, we discuss their respective industrial requirements and challenges. A common challenge is the interpretability and efficiency of purely data-driven methods. This suggests a need to carefully balance deep learning techniques with domain knowledge. As a result, we highlight ways prior knowledge may be integrated into industrial machine learning applications. The treatment of methods, problems, and applications presented here is poised to inform and inspire practitioners and researchers to develop impactful data-driven sensing, optimization, and control solutions in the process industries.

Dense-to-sparse gating mixture of experts (MoE) has recently become an effective alternative to a well-known sparse MoE. Rather than fixing the number of activated experts as in the latter model, which could limit the investigation of potential experts, the former model utilizes the temperature to control the softmax weight distribution and the sparsity of the MoE during training in order to stabilize the expert specialization. Nevertheless, while there are previous attempts to theoretically comprehend the sparse MoE, a comprehensive analysis of the dense-to-sparse gating MoE has remained elusive. Therefore, we aim to explore the impacts of the dense-to-sparse gate on the maximum likelihood estimation under the Gaussian MoE in this paper. We demonstrate that due to interactions between the temperature and other model parameters via some partial differential equations, the convergence rates of parameter estimations are slower than any polynomial rates, and could be as slow as $\mathcal{O}(1/\log(n))$, where $n$ denotes the sample size. To address this issue, we propose using a novel activation dense-to-sparse gate, which routes the output of a linear layer to an activation function before delivering them to the softmax function. By imposing linearly independence conditions on the activation function and its derivatives, we show that the parameter estimation rates are significantly improved to polynomial rates.

This paper offers a systematic method for creating medical knowledge-grounded patient records for use in activities involving differential diagnosis. Additionally, an assessment of machine learning models that can differentiate between various conditions based on given symptoms is also provided. We use a public disease-symptom data source called SymCat in combination with Synthea to construct the patients records. In order to increase the expressive nature of the synthetic data, we use a medically-standardized symptom modeling method called NLICE to augment the synthetic data with additional contextual information for each condition. In addition, Naive Bayes and Random Forest models are evaluated and compared on the synthetic data. The paper shows how to successfully construct SymCat-based and NLICE-based datasets. We also show results for the effectiveness of using the datasets to train predictive disease models. The SymCat-based dataset is able to train a Naive Bayes and Random Forest model yielding a 58.8% and 57.1% Top-1 accuracy score, respectively. In contrast, the NLICE-based dataset improves the results, with a Top-1 accuracy of 82.0% and Top-5 accuracy values of more than 90% for both models. Our proposed data generation approach solves a major barrier to the application of artificial intelligence methods in the healthcare domain. Our novel NLICE symptom modeling approach addresses the incomplete and insufficient information problem in the current binary symptom representation approach. The NLICE code is open sourced at https://github.com/guozhuoran918/NLICE.

In recent years, various powerful policy gradient algorithms have been proposed in deep reinforcement learning. While all these algorithms build on the Policy Gradient Theorem, the specific design choices differ significantly across algorithms. We provide a holistic overview of on-policy policy gradient algorithms to facilitate the understanding of both their theoretical foundations and their practical implementations. In this overview, we include a detailed proof of the continuous version of the Policy Gradient Theorem, convergence results and a comprehensive discussion of practical algorithms. We compare the most prominent algorithms on continuous control environments and provide insights on the benefits of regularization. All code is available at https://github.com/Matt00n/PolicyGradientsJax.

Background and purpose: The unanticipated detection by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the brain of asymptomatic subjects of white matter lesions suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been named radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS). As the difference between early MS [i.e. clinically isolated syndrome (CIS)] and RIS is the occurrence of a clinical event, it is logical to improve detection of the subclinical form without interfering with MRI as there are radiological diagnostic criteria for that. Our objective was to use machine-learning classification methods to identify morphometric measures that help to discriminate patients with RIS from those with CIS. Methods: We used a multimodal 3-T MRI approach by combining MRI biomarkers (cortical thickness, cortical and subcortical grey matter volume, and white matter integrity) of a cohort of 17 patients with RIS and 17 patients with CIS for single-subject level classification. Results: The best proposed models to predict the diagnosis of CIS and RIS were based on the Naive Bayes, Bagging and Multilayer Perceptron classifiers using only three features: the left rostral middle frontal gyrus volume and the fractional anisotropy values in the right amygdala and right lingual gyrus. The Naive Bayes obtained the highest accuracy [overall classification, 0.765; area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), 0.782]. Conclusions: A machine-learning approach applied to multimodal MRI data may differentiate between the earliest clinical expressions of MS (CIS and RIS) with an accuracy of 78%. Keywords: Bagging; Multilayer Perceptron; Naive Bayes classifier; clinically isolated syndrome; diffusion tensor imaging; machine-learning; magnetic resonance imaging; multiple sclerosis; radiologically isolated syndrome.