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 Bayesian Learning


IA-LSTM: Interaction-Aware LSTM for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting the trajectory of pedestrians in crowd scenarios is indispensable in self-driving or autonomous mobile robot field because estimating the future locations of pedestrians around is beneficial for policy decision to avoid collision. It is a challenging issue because humans have different walking motions, and the interactions between humans and objects in the current environment, especially between humans themselves, are complex. Previous researchers focused on how to model human-human interactions but neglected the relative importance of interactions. To address this issue, a novel mechanism based on correntropy is introduced. The proposed mechanism not only can measure the relative importance of human-human interactions but also can build personal space for each pedestrian. An interaction module including this data-driven mechanism is further proposed. In the proposed module, the data-driven mechanism can effectively extract the feature representations of dynamic human-human interactions in the scene and calculate the corresponding weights to represent the importance of different interactions. To share such social messages among pedestrians, an interaction-aware architecture based on long short-term memory network for trajectory prediction is designed. Experiments are conducted on two public datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that our model can achieve better performance than several latest methods with good performance.


Analyzing Dataset Annotation Quality Management in the Wild

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data quality is crucial for training accurate, unbiased, and trustworthy machine learning models as well as for their correct evaluation. Recent works, however, have shown that even popular datasets used to train and evaluate state-of-the-art models contain a non-negligible amount of erroneous annotations, biases, or artifacts. While practices and guidelines regarding dataset creation projects exist, to our knowledge, large-scale analysis has yet to be performed on how quality management is conducted when creating natural language datasets and whether these recommendations are followed. Therefore, we first survey and summarize recommended quality management practices for dataset creation as described in the literature and provide suggestions for applying them. Then, we compile a corpus of 591 scientific publications introducing text datasets and annotate it for quality-related aspects, such as annotator management, agreement, adjudication, or data validation. Using these annotations, we then analyze how quality management is conducted in practice. A majority of the annotated publications apply good or excellent quality management. However, we deem the effort of 30\% of the works as only subpar. Our analysis also shows common errors, especially when using inter-annotator agreement and computing annotation error rates.


Machine learning for industrial sensing and control: A survey and practical perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the rise of deep learning, there has been renewed interest within the process industries to utilize data on large-scale nonlinear sensing and control problems. We identify key statistical and machine learning techniques that have seen practical success in the process industries. To do so, we start with hybrid modeling to provide a methodological framework underlying core application areas: soft sensing, process optimization, and control. Soft sensing contains a wealth of industrial applications of statistical and machine learning methods. We quantitatively identify research trends, allowing insight into the most successful techniques in practice. We consider two distinct flavors for data-driven optimization and control: hybrid modeling in conjunction with mathematical programming techniques and reinforcement learning. Throughout these application areas, we discuss their respective industrial requirements and challenges. A common challenge is the interpretability and efficiency of purely data-driven methods. This suggests a need to carefully balance deep learning techniques with domain knowledge. As a result, we highlight ways prior knowledge may be integrated into industrial machine learning applications. The treatment of methods, problems, and applications presented here is poised to inform and inspire practitioners and researchers to develop impactful data-driven sensing, optimization, and control solutions in the process industries.


Is Temperature Sample Efficient for Softmax Gaussian Mixture of Experts?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dense-to-sparse gating mixture of experts (MoE) has recently become an effective alternative to a well-known sparse MoE. Rather than fixing the number of activated experts as in the latter model, which could limit the investigation of potential experts, the former model utilizes the temperature to control the softmax weight distribution and the sparsity of the MoE during training in order to stabilize the expert specialization. Nevertheless, while there are previous attempts to theoretically comprehend the sparse MoE, a comprehensive analysis of the dense-to-sparse gating MoE has remained elusive. Therefore, we aim to explore the impacts of the dense-to-sparse gate on the maximum likelihood estimation under the Gaussian MoE in this paper. We demonstrate that due to interactions between the temperature and other model parameters via some partial differential equations, the convergence rates of parameter estimations are slower than any polynomial rates, and could be as slow as $\mathcal{O}(1/\log(n))$, where $n$ denotes the sample size. To address this issue, we propose using a novel activation dense-to-sparse gate, which routes the output of a linear layer to an activation function before delivering them to the softmax function. By imposing linearly independence conditions on the activation function and its derivatives, we show that the parameter estimation rates are significantly improved to polynomial rates.


NLICE: Synthetic Medical Record Generation for Effective Primary Healthcare Differential Diagnosis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper offers a systematic method for creating medical knowledge-grounded patient records for use in activities involving differential diagnosis. Additionally, an assessment of machine learning models that can differentiate between various conditions based on given symptoms is also provided. We use a public disease-symptom data source called SymCat in combination with Synthea to construct the patients records. In order to increase the expressive nature of the synthetic data, we use a medically-standardized symptom modeling method called NLICE to augment the synthetic data with additional contextual information for each condition. In addition, Naive Bayes and Random Forest models are evaluated and compared on the synthetic data. The paper shows how to successfully construct SymCat-based and NLICE-based datasets. We also show results for the effectiveness of using the datasets to train predictive disease models. The SymCat-based dataset is able to train a Naive Bayes and Random Forest model yielding a 58.8% and 57.1% Top-1 accuracy score, respectively. In contrast, the NLICE-based dataset improves the results, with a Top-1 accuracy of 82.0% and Top-5 accuracy values of more than 90% for both models. Our proposed data generation approach solves a major barrier to the application of artificial intelligence methods in the healthcare domain. Our novel NLICE symptom modeling approach addresses the incomplete and insufficient information problem in the current binary symptom representation approach. The NLICE code is open sourced at https://github.com/guozhuoran918/NLICE.


The Definitive Guide to Policy Gradients in Deep Reinforcement Learning: Theory, Algorithms and Implementations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, various powerful policy gradient algorithms have been proposed in deep reinforcement learning. While all these algorithms build on the Policy Gradient Theorem, the specific design choices differ significantly across algorithms. We provide a holistic overview of on-policy policy gradient algorithms to facilitate the understanding of both their theoretical foundations and their practical implementations. In this overview, we include a detailed proof of the continuous version of the Policy Gradient Theorem, convergence results and a comprehensive discussion of practical algorithms. We compare the most prominent algorithms on continuous control environments and provide insights on the benefits of regularization. All code is available at https://github.com/Matt00n/PolicyGradientsJax.


Classification of Radiologically Isolated Syndrome and Clinically Isolated Syndrome with Machine-Learning Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background and purpose: The unanticipated detection by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the brain of asymptomatic subjects of white matter lesions suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) has been named radiologically isolated syndrome (RIS). As the difference between early MS [i.e. clinically isolated syndrome (CIS)] and RIS is the occurrence of a clinical event, it is logical to improve detection of the subclinical form without interfering with MRI as there are radiological diagnostic criteria for that. Our objective was to use machine-learning classification methods to identify morphometric measures that help to discriminate patients with RIS from those with CIS. Methods: We used a multimodal 3-T MRI approach by combining MRI biomarkers (cortical thickness, cortical and subcortical grey matter volume, and white matter integrity) of a cohort of 17 patients with RIS and 17 patients with CIS for single-subject level classification. Results: The best proposed models to predict the diagnosis of CIS and RIS were based on the Naive Bayes, Bagging and Multilayer Perceptron classifiers using only three features: the left rostral middle frontal gyrus volume and the fractional anisotropy values in the right amygdala and right lingual gyrus. The Naive Bayes obtained the highest accuracy [overall classification, 0.765; area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), 0.782]. Conclusions: A machine-learning approach applied to multimodal MRI data may differentiate between the earliest clinical expressions of MS (CIS and RIS) with an accuracy of 78%. Keywords: Bagging; Multilayer Perceptron; Naive Bayes classifier; clinically isolated syndrome; diffusion tensor imaging; machine-learning; magnetic resonance imaging; multiple sclerosis; radiologically isolated syndrome.


Blind Channel Estimation and Joint Symbol Detection with Data-Driven Factor Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the application of the factor graph framework for blind joint channel estimation and symbol detection on time-variant linear inter-symbol interference channels. In particular, we consider the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation, which typically suffers from high complexity as it requires the computation of the symbol-wise posterior distributions in every iteration. We address this issue by efficiently approximating the posteriors using the belief propagation (BP) algorithm on a suitable factor graph. By interweaving the iterations of BP and EM, the detection complexity can be further reduced to a single BP iteration per EM step. In addition, we propose a data-driven version of our algorithm that introduces momentum in the BP updates and learns a suitable EM parameter update schedule, thereby significantly improving the performance-complexity tradeoff with a few offline training samples. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed blind detector and show that it even outperforms coherent BP detection in high signal-to-noise scenarios.


Active Inference as a Model of Agency

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Is there a canonical way to think of agency beyond reward maximisation? In this paper, we show that any type of behaviour complying with physically sound assumptions about how macroscopic biological agents interact with the world canonically integrates exploration and exploitation in the sense of minimising risk and ambiguity about states of the world. This description, known as active inference, refines the free energy principle, a popular descriptive framework for action and perception originating in neuroscience. Active inference provides a normative Bayesian framework to simulate and model agency that is widely used in behavioural neuroscience, reinforcement learning (RL) and robotics. The usefulness of active inference for RL is three-fold. \emph{a}) Active inference provides a principled solution to the exploration-exploitation dilemma that usefully simulates biological agency. \emph{b}) It provides an explainable recipe to simulate behaviour, whence behaviour follows as an explainable mixture of exploration and exploitation under a generative world model, and all differences in behaviour are explicit in differences in world model. \emph{c}) This framework is universal in the sense that it is theoretically possible to rewrite any RL algorithm conforming to the descriptive assumptions of active inference as an active inference algorithm. Thus, active inference can be used as a tool to uncover and compare the commitments and assumptions of more specific models of agency.


Statistical Rejection Sampling Improves Preference Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Improving the alignment of language models with human preferences remains an active research challenge. Previous approaches have primarily utilized Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) via online RL methods such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). Recently, offline methods such as Sequence Likelihood Calibration (SLiC) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) have emerged as attractive alternatives, offering improvements in stability and scalability while maintaining competitive performance. SLiC refines its loss function using sequence pairs sampled from a supervised fine-tuned (SFT) policy, while DPO directly optimizes language models based on preference data, foregoing the need for a separate reward model. However, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the target optimal policy requires labeled preference pairs sampled from that policy. DPO's lack of a reward model constrains its ability to sample preference pairs from the optimal policy, and SLiC is restricted to sampling preference pairs only from the SFT policy. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel approach called Statistical Rejection Sampling Optimization (RSO) that aims to source preference data from the target optimal policy using rejection sampling, enabling a more accurate estimation of the optimal policy. We also propose a unified framework that enhances the loss functions used in both SLiC and DPO from a preference modeling standpoint. Through extensive experiments across three diverse tasks, we demonstrate that RSO consistently outperforms both SLiC and DPO on evaluations from both Large Language Model (LLM) and human raters.