Functional linear discriminant analysis (FLDA) is a powerful tool that extends LDA-mediated multiclass classification and dimension reduction to univariate time-series functions. However, in the age of large multivariate and incomplete data, statistical dependencies between features must be estimated in a computationally tractable way, while also dealing with missing data. There is a need for a computationally tractable approach that considers the statistical dependencies between features and can handle missing values. We here develop a multivariate version of FLDA (MUDRA) to tackle this issue and describe an efficient expectation/conditional-maximization (ECM) algorithm to infer its parameters. We assess its predictive power on the "Articulary Word Recognition" data set and show its improvement over the state-of-the-art, especially in the case of missing data. MUDRA allows interpretable classification of data sets with large proportions of missing data, which will be particularly useful for medical or psychological data sets.

Trustworthy ML systems should not only return accurate predictions, but also a reliable representation of their uncertainty. Bayesian methods are commonly used to quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, but alternative approaches, such as evidential deep learning methods, have become popular in recent years. The latter group of methods in essence extends empirical risk minimization (ERM) for predicting second-order probability distributions over outcomes, from which measures of epistemic (and aleatoric) uncertainty can be extracted. This paper presents novel theoretical insights of evidential deep learning, highlighting the difficulties in optimizing second-order loss functions and interpreting the resulting epistemic uncertainty measures. With a systematic setup that covers a wide range of approaches for classification, regression and counts, it provides novel insights into issues of identifiability and convergence in second-order loss minimization, and the relative (rather than absolute) nature of epistemic uncertainty measures.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently gained popularity due to their ability to quantify model uncertainty. However, specifying a prior for BNNs that captures relevant domain knowledge is often extremely challenging. In this work, we propose a framework for integrating general forms of domain knowledge (i.e., any knowledge that can be represented by a loss function) into a BNN prior through variational inference, while enabling computationally efficient posterior inference and sampling. Specifically, our approach results in a prior over neural network weights that assigns high probability mass to models that better align with our domain knowledge, leading to posterior samples that also exhibit this behavior. We show that BNNs using our proposed domain knowledge priors outperform those with standard priors (e.g., isotropic Gaussian, Gaussian process), successfully incorporating diverse types of prior information such as fairness, physics rules, and healthcare knowledge and achieving better predictive performance. We also present techniques for transferring the learned priors across different model architectures, demonstrating their broad utility across various settings.

Covariate adjustment is a ubiquitous method used to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. Assuming a known graphical structure of the data generating model, recent results give graphical criteria for optimal adjustment, which enables efficient estimation of the ATE. However, graphical approaches are challenging for high-dimensional and complex data, and it is not straightforward to specify a meaningful graphical model of non-Euclidean data such as texts. We propose an general framework that accommodates adjustment for any subset of information expressed by the covariates. We generalize prior works and leverage these results to identify the optimal covariate information for efficient adjustment. This information is minimally sufficient for prediction of the outcome conditionally on treatment. Based on our theoretical results, we propose the Debiased Outcome-adapted Propensity Estimator (DOPE) for efficient estimation of the ATE, and we provide asymptotic results for the DOPE under general conditions. Compared to the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator, the DOPE can retain its efficiency even when the covariates are highly predictive of treatment. We illustrate this with a single-index model, and with an implementation of the DOPE based on neural networks, we demonstrate its performance on simulated and real data. Our results show that the DOPE provides an efficient and robust methodology for ATE estimation in various observational settings.

Abstract--Federated learning allows us to run machine learning algorithms on decentralized data when data sharing is not permitted due to privacy concerns. Ensemble-based learning works by training multiple (weak) classifiers whose output is aggregated. Federated ensembles are ensembles applied to a federated setting, where each classifier in the ensemble is trained on one data location. In this article, we explore the use of federated ensembles of Bayesian networks (FBNE) in a range of experiments and compare their performance with locally trained models and models trained with VertiBayes, a federated learning algorithm to train Bayesian networks from decentralized data. Our results show that FBNE outperforms local models and provides a significant increase in training speed compared with VertiBayes while maintaining a similar performance in most settings, among other advantages. We show that FBNE is a potentially useful tool within the federated learning toolbox, especially when local populations are heavily biased, or there is a strong imbalance in population size across parties. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this approach in terms of time complexity, model accuracy, privacy protection, and model interpretability.

Bayesian networks model relationships between random variables under uncertainty and can be used to predict the likelihood of events and outcomes while incorporating observed evidence. From an eXplainable AI (XAI) perspective, such models are interesting as they tend to be compact. Moreover, captured relations can be directly inspected by domain experts. In practice, data is often real-valued. Unless assumptions of normality can be made, discretization is often required. The optimal discretization, however, depends on the relations modelled between the variables. This complicates learning Bayesian networks from data. For this reason, most literature focuses on learning conditional dependencies between sets of variables, called structure learning. In this work, we extend an existing state-of-the-art structure learning approach based on the Gene-pool Optimal Mixing Evolutionary Algorithm (GOMEA) to jointly learn variable discretizations. The proposed Discretized Bayesian Network GOMEA (DBN-GOMEA) obtains similar or better results than the current state-of-the-art when tasked to retrieve randomly generated ground-truth networks. Moreover, leveraging a key strength of evolutionary algorithms, we can straightforwardly perform DBN learning multi-objectively. We show how this enables incorporating expert knowledge in a uniquely insightful fashion, finding multiple DBNs that trade-off complexity, accuracy, and the difference with a pre-determined expert network.

We study automated security response for an IT infrastructure and formulate the interaction between an attacker and a defender as a partially observed, non-stationary game. We relax the standard assumption that the game model is correctly specified and consider that each player has a probabilistic conjecture about the model, which may be misspecified in the sense that the true model has probability 0. This formulation allows us to capture uncertainty about the infrastructure and the intents of the players. To learn effective game strategies online, we design a novel method where a player iteratively adapts its conjecture using Bayesian learning and updates its strategy through rollout. We prove that the conjectures converge to best fits, and we provide a bound on the performance improvement that rollout enables with a conjectured model. To characterize the steady state of the game, we propose a variant of the Berk-Nash equilibrium. We present our method through an advanced persistent threat use case. Simulation studies based on testbed measurements show that our method produces effective security strategies that adapt to a changing environment. We also find that our method enables faster convergence than current reinforcement learning techniques.

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for image inversion by deriving a probabilistic counterpart to the regularization-by-denoising (RED) paradigm. It additionally implements a Monte Carlo algorithm specifically tailored for sampling from the resulting posterior distribution, based on an asymptotically exact data augmentation (AXDA). The proposed algorithm is an approximate instance of split Gibbs sampling (SGS) which embeds one Langevin Monte Carlo step. The proposed method is applied to common imaging tasks such as deblurring, inpainting and super-resolution, demonstrating its efficacy through extensive numerical experiments. These contributions advance Bayesian inference in imaging by leveraging data-driven regularization strategies within a probabilistic framework.

Fine-tuning large language models can improve task specific performance, although a general understanding of what the fine-tuned model has learned, forgotten and how to trust its predictions is still missing. We derive principled uncertainty quantification for fine-tuned LLMs with posterior approximations using computationally efficient low-rank adaptation ensembles. We analyze three common multiple-choice datasets using low-rank adaptation ensembles based on Mistral-7b, and draw quantitative and qualitative conclusions on their perceived complexity and model efficacy on the different target domains during and after fine-tuning. In particular, backed by the numerical experiments, we hypothesise about signals from entropic uncertainty measures for data domains that are inherently difficult for a given architecture to learn.

Bayesian active learning is based on information theoretical approaches that focus on maximising the information that new observations provide to the model parameters. This is commonly done by maximising the Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD) acquisitions function. However, we highlight that it is challenging to estimate BALD when the new data points are subject to censorship, where only clipped values of the targets are observed. To address this, we derive the entropy and the mutual information for censored distributions and derive the BALD objective for active learning in censored regression ($\mathcal{C}$-BALD). We propose a novel modelling approach to estimate the $\mathcal{C}$-BALD objective and use it for active learning in the censored setting. Across a wide range of datasets and models, we demonstrate that $\mathcal{C}$-BALD outperforms other Bayesian active learning methods in censored regression.