This paper develops flexible nowcasting and forecasting methods by combining elements from three strands of econometric literature. First, drawing from the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) framework introduced by Ghysels et al. (2007), see also Andreou et al. (2010), Ghysels (2016), or Ghysels et al. (2024) for a recent review, we leverage techniques that permit the efficient use of predictors sampled at a higher frequency than the target variable. Second, the Big Data literature, based on the idea that using a large set of predictors combined with penalized estimators or Bayesian shrinkage can improve predictive accuracy, see e.g., Babii et al. (2022) and Mogliani and Simoni (2021) in the context of mixed frequency models. Third, the machine learning literature, which postulates that proper algorithms combined with computing power can uncover complicated relationships among variables (economic and financial ones, in our case) and hence improve predictions, see e.g., Hastie et al. (2009). Our baseline framework uses Gaussian Processes (GPs) to estimate the unknown and perhaps nonlinear relationships between a target variable and a large set of mixed frequency predictors nonparametrically.

Distinguishing sources of predictive uncertainty is of crucial importance in the application of forecasting models across various domains. Despite the presence of a great variety of proposed uncertainty measures, there are no strict definitions to disentangle them. Furthermore, the relationship between different measures of uncertainty quantification remains somewhat unclear. In this work, we introduce a general framework, rooted in statistical reasoning, which not only allows the creation of new uncertainty measures but also clarifies their interrelations. Our approach leverages statistical risk to distinguish aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty components and utilizes proper scoring rules to quantify them. To make it practically tractable, we propose an idea to incorporate Bayesian reasoning into this framework and discuss the properties of the proposed approximation.

Goal recognition is a fundamental cognitive process that enables individuals to infer intentions based on available cues. Current goal recognition algorithms often take only observed actions as input, but here we use a Bayesian framework to explore the role of actions, timing, and goal solvability in goal recognition. We analyze human responses to goal-recognition problems in the Sokoban domain, and find that actions are assigned most importance, but that timing and solvability also influence goal recognition in some cases, especially when actions are uninformative. We leverage these findings to develop a goal recognition model that matches human inferences more closely than do existing algorithms. Our work provides new insight into human goal recognition and takes a step towards more human-like AI models.

When multiple agents interact in a common environment, each agent's actions impact others' future decisions, and noncooperative dynamic games naturally capture this coupling. In interactive motion planning, however, agents typically do not have access to a complete model of the game, e.g., due to unknown objectives of other players. Therefore, we consider the inverse game problem, in which some properties of the game are unknown a priori and must be inferred from observations. Existing maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approaches to solve inverse games provide only point estimates of unknown parameters without quantifying uncertainty, and perform poorly when many parameter values explain the observed behavior. To address these limitations, we take a Bayesian perspective and construct posterior distributions of game parameters. To render inference tractable, we employ a variational autoencoder (VAE) with an embedded differentiable game solver. This structured VAE can be trained from an unlabeled dataset of observed interactions, naturally handles continuous, multi-modal distributions, and supports efficient sampling from the inferred posteriors without computing game solutions at runtime. Extensive evaluations in simulated driving scenarios demonstrate that the proposed approach successfully learns the prior and posterior objective distributions, provides more accurate objective estimates than MLE baselines, and facilitates safer and more efficient game-theoretic motion planning.

Background: Postpartum urinary incontinence (PUI) is a common issue among postnatal women. Previous studies identified potential related variables, but lacked analysis on certain intrinsic and extrinsic patient variables during pregnancy. Objective: The study aims to evaluate the most influential variables in PUI using machine learning, focusing on intrinsic, extrinsic, and combined variable groups. Methods: Data from 93 pregnant women were analyzed using machine learning and oversampling techniques. Four key variables were predicted: occurrence, frequency, intensity of urinary incontinence, and stress urinary incontinence. Results: Models using extrinsic variables were most accurate, with 70% accuracy for urinary incontinence, 77% for frequency, 71% for intensity, and 93% for stress urinary incontinence. Conclusions: The study highlights extrinsic variables as significant predictors of PUI issues. This suggests that PUI prevention might be achievable through healthy habits during pregnancy, although further research is needed for confirmation.

This paper considers the challenges that Large Language Models (LLMs) face when reasoning over text that includes information involving uncertainty explicitly quantified via probability values. This type of reasoning is relevant to a variety of contexts ranging from everyday conversations to medical decision-making. Despite improvements in the mathematical reasoning capabilities of LLMs, they still exhibit significant difficulties when it comes to probabilistic reasoning. To deal with this problem, we first introduce the Bayesian Linguistic Inference Dataset (BLInD), a new dataset specifically designed to test the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LLMs. We then leverage this new dataset to thoroughly illustrate the specific limitations of LLMs for tasks involving probabilistic reasoning and present several strategies that map the problem to different formal representations, including Python code, probabilistic inference algorithms, and probabilistic logical programming. We Figure 1: An example from the BLInD dataset including conclude by providing an evaluation of our methods an underlying Bayesian network, its textual description, and on BLInD and on an adaptation of a causal reasoning probabilistic queries in natural language.

We introduce squared neural Poisson point processes (SNEPPPs) by parameterising the intensity function by the squared norm of a two layer neural network. When the hidden layer is fixed and the second layer has a single neuron, our approach resembles previous uses of squared Gaussian process or kernel methods, but allowing the hidden layer to be learnt allows for additional flexibility. In many cases of interest, the integrated intensity function admits a closed form and can be computed in quadratic time in the number of hidden neurons. We enumerate a far more extensive number of such cases than has previously been discussed. Our approach is more memory and time efficient than naive implementations of squared or exponentiated kernel methods or Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimates in a reparameterisation of the final layer of the intensity function can be obtained by solving a (strongly) convex optimisation problem using projected gradient descent. We demonstrate SNEPPPs on real, and synthetic benchmarks, and provide a software implementation. https://github.com/RussellTsuchida/snefy

This paper is intended to appear as a chapter for the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The goal of this chapter is to unify various problems at the intersection of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and machine learning$\unicode{x2014}$which includes black-box variational inference, adaptive MCMC, normalizing flow construction and transport-assisted MCMC, surrogate-likelihood MCMC, coreset construction for MCMC with big data, Markov chain gradient descent, Markovian score climbing, and more$\unicode{x2014}$within one common framework. By doing so, the theory and methods developed for each may be translated and generalized.

Mussel farming is one of the most important aquaculture industries. The main risk to mussel farming is harmful algal blooms (HABs), which pose a risk to human consumption. In Galicia, the Spanish main producer of cultivated mussels, the opening and closing of the production areas is controlled by a monitoring program. In addition to the closures resulting from the presence of toxicity exceeding the legal threshold, in the absence of a confirmatory sampling and the existence of risk factors, precautionary closures may be applied. These decisions are made by experts without the support or formalisation of the experience on which they are based. Therefore, this work proposes a predictive model capable of supporting the application of precautionary closures. Achieving sensitivity, accuracy and kappa index values of 97.34%, 91.83% and 0.75 respectively, the kNN algorithm has provided the best results. This allows the creation of a system capable of helping in complex situations where forecast errors are more common.

A novel online clustering algorithm is presented where an Evolving Restricted Boltzmann Machine (ERBM) is embedded with a Kohonen Network called ERBM-KNet. The proposed ERBM-KNet efficiently handles streaming data in a single-pass mode using the ERBM, employing a bias-variance strategy for neuron growing and pruning, as well as online clustering based on a cluster update strategy for cluster prediction and cluster center update using KNet. Initially, ERBM evolves its architecture while processing unlabeled image data, effectively disentangling the data distribution in the latent space. Subsequently, the KNet utilizes the feature extracted from ERBM to predict the number of clusters and updates the cluster centers. By overcoming the common challenges associated with clustering algorithms, such as prior initialization of the number of clusters and subpar clustering accuracy, the proposed ERBM-KNet offers significant improvements. Extensive experimental evaluations on four benchmarks and one industry dataset demonstrate the superiority of ERBM-KNet compared to state-of-the-art approaches.