In this chapter, we are interested in formalizing the reasoning of a single agent who can make observations on a dynamic system and considers actions to perform on it. Reasoning about action and change is among the first issues addressed within Artificial Intelligence (AI); especially, it was the subject of the seminal article by McCarthy and Hayes [1969]. Research in this area has been very productive until the late 1990s. Among other things, solutions to the various problems to be faced when dealing with action representation were put forward and a classification of action languages according to their expressive power was undertaken. Moreover, much progress towards the automatization of reasoning about action and change was made, for example through the design and the evaluation of algorithms implementing the reasoning processes of the main action languages and the investigation of the computational complexity of such processes. The reasons why an agent may wish to act in order to modify the current state of a dynamic system or to learn more about it are numerous.

The prosperity of machine learning has also brought people's concerns about data privacy. Among them, inference attacks can implement privacy breaches in various MLaaS scenarios and model training/prediction phases. Specifically, inference attacks can perform privacy inference on undisclosed target training sets based on outputs of the target model, including but not limited to statistics, membership, semantics, data representation, etc. For instance, infer whether the target data has the characteristics of AIDS. In addition, the rapid development of the machine learning community in recent years, especially the surge of model types and application scenarios, has further stimulated the inference attacks' research. Thus, studying inference attacks and analyzing them in depth is urgent and significant. However, there is still a gap in the systematic discussion of inference attacks from taxonomy, global perspective, attack, and defense perspectives. This survey provides an in-depth and comprehensive inference of attacks and corresponding countermeasures in ML-as-a-service based on taxonomy and the latest researches. Without compromising researchers' intuition, we first propose the 3MP taxonomy based on the community research status, trying to normalize the confusing naming system of inference attacks. Also, we analyze the pros and cons of each type of inference attack, their workflow, countermeasure, and how they interact with other attacks. In the end, we point out several promising directions for researchers from a more comprehensive and novel perspective.

The Kalman Filter (KF) is a powerful mathematical tool widely used for state estimation in various domains, including Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM). This paper presents an in-depth introduction to the Kalman Filter and explores its several extensions: the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), the Error-State Kalman Filter (ESKF), the Iterated Extended Kalman Filter (IEKF), and the Iterated Error-State Kalman Filter (IESKF). Each variant is meticulously examined, with detailed derivations of their mathematical formulations and discussions on their respective advantages and limitations. By providing a comprehensive overview of these techniques, this paper aims to offer valuable insights into their applications in SLAM and enhance the understanding of state estimation methodologies in complex environments.

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. These results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results and their predictive performance is analyzed showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

We consider the problem of selecting an optimal subset of information sources for a hypothesis testing/classification task where the goal is to identify the true state of the world from a finite set of hypotheses, based on finite observation samples from the sources. In order to characterize the learning performance, we propose a misclassification penalty framework, which enables nonuniform treatment of different misclassification errors. In a centralized Bayesian learning setting, we study two variants of the subset selection problem: (i) selecting a minimum cost information set to ensure that the maximum penalty of misclassifying the true hypothesis is below a desired bound and (ii) selecting an optimal information set under a limited budget to minimize the maximum penalty of misclassifying the true hypothesis. Under certain assumptions, we prove that the objective (or constraints) of these combinatorial optimization problems are weak (or approximate) submodular, and establish high-probability performance guarantees for greedy algorithms. Further, we propose an alternate metric for information set selection which is based on the total penalty of misclassification. We prove that this metric is submodular and establish near-optimal guarantees for the greedy algorithms for both the information set selection problems. Finally, we present numerical simulations to validate our theoretical results over several randomly generated instances.

In sampling tasks, it is common for target distributions to be known up to a normalising constant. However, in many situations, evaluating even the unnormalised distribution can be costly or infeasible. This issue arises in scenarios such as sampling from the Bayesian posterior for tall datasets and the 'doubly-intractable' distributions. In this paper, we begin by observing that seemingly different Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, such as the exchange algorithm, PoissonMH, and TunaMH, can be unified under a simple common procedure. We then extend this procedure into a novel framework that allows the use of auxiliary variables in both the proposal and acceptance-rejection steps. We develop the theory of the new framework, applying it to existing algorithms to simplify and extend their results. Several new algorithms emerge from this framework, with improved performance demonstrated on both synthetic and real datasets.

Determining the chronology of ancient handwritten manuscripts is essential for reconstructing the evolution of ideas. For the Dead Sea Scrolls, this is particularly important. However, there is an almost complete lack of date-bearing manuscripts evenly distributed across the timeline and written in similar scripts available for palaeographic comparison. Here, we present Enoch, a state-of-the-art AI-based date-prediction model, trained on the basis of new radiocarbon-dated samples of the scrolls. Enoch uses established handwriting-style descriptors and applies Bayesian ridge regression. The challenge of this study is that the number of radiocarbon-dated manuscripts is small, while current machine learning requires an abundance of training data. We show that by using combined angular and allographic writing style feature vectors and applying Bayesian ridge regression, Enoch could predict the radiocarbon-based dates from style, supported by leave-one-out validation, with varied MAEs of 27.9 to 30.7 years relative to the radiocarbon dating. Enoch was then used to estimate the dates of 135 unseen manuscripts, revealing that 79 per cent of the samples were considered 'realistic' upon palaeographic post-hoc evaluation. We present a new chronology of the scrolls. The radiocarbon ranges and Enoch's style-based predictions are often older than the traditionally assumed palaeographic estimates. In the range of 300-50 BCE, Enoch's date prediction provides an improved granularity. The study is in line with current developments in multimodal machine-learning techniques, and the methods can be used for date prediction in other partially-dated manuscript collections. This research shows how Enoch's quantitative, probability-based approach can be a tool for palaeographers and historians, re-dating ancient Jewish key texts and contributing to current debates on Jewish and Christian origins.

Filtering and annotating textual data are routine tasks in many areas, like social media or news analytics. Automating these tasks allows to scale the analyses wrt. speed and breadth of content covered and decreases the manual effort required. Due to technical advancements in Natural Language Processing, specifically the success of large foundation models, a new tool for automating such annotation processes by using a text-to-text interface given written guidelines without providing training samples has become available. In this work, we assess these advancements in-the-wild by empirically testing them in an annotation task on German Twitter data about social and political European crises. We compare the prompt-based results with our human annotation and preceding classification approaches, including Naive Bayes and a BERT-based fine-tuning/domain adaptation pipeline. Our results show that the prompt-based approach - despite being limited by local computation resources during the model selection - is comparable with the fine-tuned BERT but without any annotated training data. Our findings emphasize the ongoing paradigm shift in the NLP landscape, i.e., the unification of downstream tasks and elimination of the need for pre-labeled training data.

Simulation-based methods for statistical inference have evolved dramatically over the past 50 years, keeping pace with technological advancements. The field is undergoing a new revolution as it embraces the representational capacity of neural networks, optimisation libraries and graphics processing units for learning complex mappings between data and inferential targets. The resulting tools are amortised, in the sense that they allow rapid inference through fast feedforward operations. In this article we review recent progress in the context of point estimation, approximate Bayesian inference, summary-statistic construction, and likelihood approximation. We also cover software, and include a simple illustration to showcase the wide array of tools available for amortised inference and the benefits they offer over Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The article concludes with an overview of relevant topics and an outlook on future research directions.

There remain numerous unanswered research questions on deep learning (DL) within the classical learning theory framework. These include the remarkable generalization capabilities of overparametrized neural networks (NNs), the efficient optimization performance despite non-convexity of objectives, the mechanism of flat minima for generalization, and the exceptional performance of deep architectures in solving physical problems. This paper introduces General Distribution Learning (GD Learning), a novel theoretical learning framework designed to address a comprehensive range of machine learning and statistical tasks, including classification, regression and parameter estimation. Departing from traditional statistical machine learning, GD Learning focuses on the true underlying distribution. In GD Learning, learning error, corresponding to the expected error in classical statistical learning framework, is divided into fitting errors due to models and algorithms, as well as sampling errors introduced by limited sampling data. The framework significantly incorporates prior knowledge, especially in scenarios characterized by data scarcity, thereby enhancing performance. Within the GD Learning framework, we demonstrate that the global optimal solutions in non-convex optimization can be approached by minimizing the gradient norm and the non-uniformity of the eigenvalues of the model's Jacobian matrix. This insight leads to the development of the gradient structure control algorithm. GD Learning also offers fresh insights into the questions on deep learning, including overparameterization and non-convex optimization, bias-variance trade-off, and the mechanism of flat minima.