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 Bayesian Learning


A Bayesian framework for active object recognition, pose estimation and shape transfer learning through touch

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As humans can explore and understand the world through the sense of touch, tactile sensing is also an important aspect of robotic perception. In unstructured environments, robots can encounter both known and novel objects, this calls for a method to address both known and novel objects. In this study, we combine a particle filter (PF) and Gaussian process implicit surface (GPIS) in a unified Bayesian framework. The framework can differentiate between known and novel objects, perform object recognition, estimate pose for known objects, and reconstruct shapes for unknown objects, in an active learning fashion. By grounding the selection of the GPIS prior with the maximum-likelihood-estimation (MLE) shape from the PF, the knowledge about known objects' shapes can be transferred to learn novel shapes. An exploration procedure with global shape estimation is proposed to guide active data acquisition and conclude the exploration when sufficient information is obtained. The performance of the proposed Bayesian framework is evaluated through simulations on known and novel objects, initialized with random poses. The results show that the proposed exploration procedure, utilizing global shape estimation, achieves faster exploration than a local exploration procedure based on rapidly explore random tree (RRT). Overall, our results indicate that the proposed framework is effective and efficient in object recognition, pose estimation and shape reconstruction. Moreover, we show that a learned shape can be included as a new prior and used effectively for future object recognition and pose estimation.


B4: Towards Optimal Assessment of Plausible Code Solutions with Plausible Tests

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Selecting the best code solution from multiple generated ones is an essential task in code generation, which can be achieved by using some reliable validators (e.g., developer-written test cases) for assistance. Since reliable test cases are not always available and can be expensive to build in practice, researchers propose to automatically generate test cases to assess code solutions. However, when both code solutions and test cases are plausible and not reliable, selecting the best solution becomes challenging. Although some heuristic strategies have been proposed to tackle this problem, they lack a strong theoretical guarantee and it is still an open question whether an optimal selection strategy exists. Our work contributes in two ways. First, we show that within a Bayesian framework, the optimal selection strategy can be defined based on the posterior probability of the observed passing states between solutions and tests. The problem of identifying the best solution is then framed as an integer programming problem. Second, we propose an efficient approach for approximating this optimal (yet uncomputable) strategy, where the approximation error is bounded by the correctness of prior knowledge. We then incorporate effective prior knowledge to tailor code generation tasks. Both theoretical and empirical studies confirm that existing heuristics are limited in selecting the best solutions with plausible test cases. Our proposed approximated optimal strategy B4 significantly surpasses existing heuristics in selecting code solutions generated by large language models (LLMs) with LLM-generated tests, achieving a relative performance improvement by up to 50% over the strongest heuristic and 246% over the random selection in the most challenging scenarios. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZJU-CTAG/B4.


SynSUM -- Synthetic Benchmark with Structured and Unstructured Medical Records

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present the SynSUM benchmark, a synthetic dataset linking unstructured clinical notes to structured background variables. The dataset consists of 10,000 artificial patient records containing tabular variables (like symptoms, diagnoses and underlying conditions) and related notes describing the fictional patient encounter in the domain of respiratory diseases. The tabular portion of the data is generated through a Bayesian network, where both the causal structure between the variables and the conditional probabilities are proposed by an expert based on domain knowledge. We then prompt a large language model (GPT-4o) to generate a clinical note related to this patient encounter, describing the patient symptoms and additional context. The SynSUM dataset is primarily designed to facilitate research on clinical information extraction in the presence of tabular background variables, which can be linked through domain knowledge to concepts of interest to be extracted from the text - the symptoms, in the case of SynSUM. Secondary uses include research on the automation of clinical reasoning over both tabular data and text, causal effect estimation in the presence of tabular and/or textual confounders, and multi-modal synthetic data generation. The dataset can be downloaded from https://github.com/prabaey/SynSUM.


An Intent Modeling and Inference Framework for Autonomous and Remotely Piloted Aerial Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An intent modelling and inference framework is presented to assist the defense planning for protecting a geo-fence against unauthorized flights. First, a novel mathematical definition for the intent of an uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) is presented. The concepts of critical waypoints and critical waypoint patterns are introduced and associated with a motion process to fully characterize an intent. This modelling framework consists of representations of a UAS mission planner, used to plan the aircraft's motion sequence, as well as a defense planner, defined to protect the geo-fence. It is applicable to autonomous, semi-autonomous, and piloted systems in 2D and 3D environments with obstacles. The framework is illustrated by defining a library of intents for a security application. Detection and tracking of the target are presumed for formulating the intent inference problem. Multiple formulations of the decision maker's objective are discussed as part of a deep-learning-based methodology. Further, a multi-modal dynamic model for characterizing the UAS flight is discussed. This is later utilized to extract features using the interacting multiple model (IMM) filter for training the intent classifier. Finally, as part of the simulation study, an attention-based bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network for intent inference is presented. The simulation experiments illustrate various aspects of the framework, including trajectory generation, radar measurement simulation, etc., in 2D and 3D environments.


What is the Relationship between Tensor Factorizations and Circuits (and How Can We Exploit it)?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper establishes a rigorous connection between circuit representations and tensor factorizations, two seemingly distinct yet fundamentally related areas. By connecting these fields, we highlight a series of opportunities that can benefit both communities. Our work generalizes popular tensor factorizations within the circuit language, and unifies various circuit learning algorithms under a single, generalized hierarchical factorization framework. Specifically, we introduce a modular "Lego block" approach to build tensorized circuit architectures. This, in turn, allows us to systematically construct and explore various circuit and tensor factorization models while maintaining tractability. This connection not only clarifies similarities and differences in existing models, but also enables the development of a comprehensive pipeline for building and optimizing new circuit/tensor factorization architectures. We show the effectiveness of our framework through extensive empirical evaluations, and highlight new research opportunities for tensor factorizations in probabilistic modeling.


Foundation of Calculating Normalized Maximum Likelihood for Continuous Probability Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The normalized maximum likelihood (NML) code length is widely used as a model selection criterion based on the minimum description length principle, where the model with the shortest NML code length is selected. A common method to calculate the NML code length is to use the sum (for a discrete model) or integral (for a continuous model) of a function defined by the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. While this method has been proven to correctly calculate the NML code length of discrete models, no proof has been provided for continuous cases. Consequently, it has remained unclear whether the method can accurately calculate the NML code length of continuous models. In this paper, we solve this problem affirmatively, proving that the method is also correct for continuous cases. Remarkably, completing the proof for continuous cases is non-trivial in that it cannot be achieved by merely replacing the sums in discrete cases with integrals, as the decomposition trick applied to sums in the discrete model case proof is not applicable to integrals in the continuous model case proof. To overcome this, we introduce a novel decomposition approach based on the coarea formula from geometric measure theory, which is essential to establishing our proof for continuous cases.


Optimizing Falsification for Learning-Based Control Systems: A Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Testing controllers in safety-critical systems is vital for ensuring their safety and preventing failures. In this paper, we address the falsification problem within learning-based closed-loop control systems through simulation. This problem involves the identification of counterexamples that violate system safety requirements and can be formulated as an optimization task based on these requirements. Using full-fidelity simulator data in this optimization problem can be computationally expensive. To improve efficiency, we propose a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization falsification framework that harnesses simulators with varying levels of accuracy. Our proposed framework can transition between different simulators and establish meaningful relationships between them. Through multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization, we determine both the optimal system input likely to be a counterexample and the appropriate fidelity level for assessment. We evaluated our approach across various Gym environments, each featuring different levels of fidelity. Our experiments demonstrate that multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization is more computationally efficient than full-fidelity Bayesian optimization and other baseline methods in detecting counterexamples. A Python implementation of the algorithm is available at https://github.com/SAILRIT/MFBO_Falsification.


NGD converges to less degenerate solutions than SGD

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The number of free parameters, or dimension, of a model is a straightforward way to measure its complexity: a model with more parameters can encode more information. However, this is not an accurate measure of complexity: models capable of memorizing their training data often generalize well despite their high dimension. Effective dimension aims to more directly capture the complexity of a model by counting only the number of parameters required to represent the functionality of the model. Singular learning theory (SLT) proposes the learning coefficient $ \lambda $ as a more accurate measure of effective dimension. By describing the rate of increase of the volume of the region of parameter space around a local minimum with respect to loss, $ \lambda $ incorporates information from higher-order terms. We compare $ \lambda $ of models trained using natural gradient descent (NGD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD), and find that those trained with NGD consistently have a higher effective dimension for both of our methods: the Hessian trace $ \text{Tr}(\mathbf{H}) $, and the estimate of the local learning coefficient (LLC) $ \hat{\lambda}(w^*) $.


Graph Laplacian-based Bayesian Multi-fidelity Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel probabilistic approach for generating multi-fidelity data while accounting for errors inherent in both low- and high-fidelity data. In this approach a graph Laplacian constructed from the low-fidelity data is used to define a multivariate Gaussian prior density for the coordinates of the true data points. In addition, few high-fidelity data points are used to construct a conjugate likelihood term. Thereafter, Bayes rule is applied to derive an explicit expression for the posterior density which is also multivariate Gaussian. The maximum \textit{a posteriori} (MAP) estimate of this density is selected to be the optimal multi-fidelity estimate. It is shown that the MAP estimate and the covariance of the posterior density can be determined through the solution of linear systems of equations. Thereafter, two methods, one based on spectral truncation and another based on a low-rank approximation, are developed to solve these equations efficiently. The multi-fidelity approach is tested on a variety of problems in solid and fluid mechanics with data that represents vectors of quantities of interest and discretized spatial fields in one and two dimensions. The results demonstrate that by utilizing a small fraction of high-fidelity data, the multi-fidelity approach can significantly improve the accuracy of a large collection of low-fidelity data points.


Rapid Parameter Estimation for Extreme Mass Ratio Inspirals Using Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral (EMRI) signals pose significant challenges in gravitational wave (GW) astronomy owing to their low-frequency nature and highly complex waveforms, which occupy a high-dimensional parameter space with numerous variables. Given their extended inspiral timescales and low signal-to-noise ratios, EMRI signals warrant prolonged observation periods. Parameter estimation becomes particularly challenging due to non-local parameter degeneracies, arising from multiple local maxima, as well as flat regions and ridges inherent in the likelihood function. These factors lead to exceptionally high time complexity for parameter analysis while employing traditional matched filtering and random sampling methods. To address these challenges, the present study applies machine learning to Bayesian posterior estimation of EMRI signals, leveraging the recently developed flow matching technique based on ODE neural networks. Our approach demonstrates computational efficiency several orders of magnitude faster than the traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, while preserving the unbiasedness of parameter estimation. We show that machine learning technology has the potential to efficiently handle the vast parameter space, involving up to seventeen parameters, associated with EMRI signals. Furthermore, to our knowledge, this is the first instance of applying machine learning, specifically the Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), to EMRI signal analysis. Our findings highlight the promising potential of machine learning in EMRI waveform analysis, offering new perspectives for the advancement of space-based GW detection and GW astronomy.