An emerging area of research aims to learn deep generative models with limited training data. Prior generative models like GANs and diffusion models require a lot of data to perform well, and their performance degrades when they are trained on only a small amount of data. A recent technique called Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) has been adapted to the few-shot setting, achieving state-of-the-art performance. However, current IMLE-based approaches encounter challenges due to inadequate correspondence between the latent codes selected for training and those drawn during inference. This results in suboptimal test-time performance. We theoretically show a way to address this issue and propose RS-IMLE, a novel approach that changes the prior distribution used for training. This leads to substantially higher quality image generation compared to existing GAN and IMLE-based methods, as validated by comprehensive experiments conducted on nine few-shot image datasets.

Trajectory prediction describes the motions of surrounding moving obstacles for an autonomous vehicle; it plays a crucial role in enabling timely decision-making, such as collision avoidance and trajectory replanning. Accurate trajectory planning is the key to reliable vehicle deployments in open-world environment, where unstructured obstacles bring in uncertainties that are impossible to fully capture by training data. For traditional machine learning tasks, such uncertainties are often addressed reasonably well via methods such as continual learning. On the one hand, naively applying those methods to trajectory prediction can result in continuous data collection and frequent model updates, which can be resource-intensive. On the other hand, the predicted trajectories can be far away from the true trajectories, leading to unsafe decision-making. In this paper, we aim to establish real-time awareness of out-of-distribution in trajectory prediction for autonomous vehicles. We focus on the challenging and practically relevant setting where the out-of-distribution is deceptive, that is, the one not easily detectable by human intuition. Drawing on the well-established techniques of sequential analysis, we build real-time awareness of out-of-distribution by monitoring prediction errors using the quickest change point detection (QCD). Our solutions are lightweight and can handle the occurrence of out-of-distribution at any time during trajectory prediction inference. Experimental results on multiple real-world datasets using a benchmark trajectory prediction model demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.

Structural transformation, the shift from agrarian economies to more diversified industrial and service-based systems, is a key driver of economic development. However, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), data scarcity and unreliability hinder accurate assessments of this process. This paper presents a novel statistical framework designed to address these challenges by integrating Bayesian hierarchical modeling, machine learning-based data imputation, and factor analysis. The framework is specifically tailored for conditions of data sparsity and is capable of providing robust insights into sectoral productivity and employment shifts across diverse economies. By utilizing Bayesian models, uncertainties in data are effectively managed, while machine learning techniques impute missing data points, ensuring the integrity of the analysis. Factor analysis reduces the dimensionality of complex datasets, distilling them into core economic structures. The proposed framework has been validated through extensive simulations, demonstrating its ability to predict structural changes even when up to 60\% of data is missing. This approach offers policymakers and researchers a valuable tool for making informed decisions in environments where data quality is limited, contributing to the broader understanding of economic development in LMICs.

In supervised machine learning, models are typically trained using data with hard labels, i.e., definite assignments of class membership. This traditional approach, however, does not take the inherent uncertainty in these labels into account. We investigate whether incorporating label uncertainty, represented as discrete probability distributions over the class labels -- known as soft labels -- improves the predictive performance of classification models. We first demonstrate the potential value of soft label learning (SLL) for estimating model parameters in a simulation experiment, particularly for limited sample sizes and imbalanced data. Subsequently, we compare the performance of various wrapper methods for learning from both hard and soft labels using identical base classifiers. On real-world-inspired synthetic data with clean labels, the SLL methods consistently outperform hard label methods. Since real-world data is often noisy and precise soft labels are challenging to obtain, we study the effect that noisy probability estimates have on model performance. Alongside conventional noise models, our study examines four types of miscalibration that are known to affect human annotators. The results show that SLL methods outperform the hard label methods in the majority of settings. Finally, we evaluate the methods on a real-world dataset with confidence scores, where the SLL methods are shown to match the traditional methods for predicting the (noisy) hard labels while providing more accurate confidence estimates.

Boron Neutron Capture Therapy (BNCT) is an innovative binary form of radiation therapy with high selectivity towards cancer tissue based on the neutron capture reaction 10B(n,$\alpha$)7Li, consisting in the exposition of patients to neutron beams after administration of a boron compound with preferential accumulation in cancer cells. The high linear energy transfer products of the ensuing reaction deposit their energy at cell level, sparing normal tissue. Although progress in accelerator-based BNCT has led to renewed interest in this cancer treatment modality, in vivo dose monitoring during treatment still remains not feasible and several approaches are under investigation. While Compton imaging presents various advantages over other imaging methods, it typically requires long reconstruction times, comparable with BNCT treatment duration. This study aims to develop deep neural network models to estimate the dose distribution by using a simulated dataset of BNCT Compton camera images. The models pursue the avoidance of the iteration time associated with the maximum-likelihood expectation-maximization algorithm (MLEM), enabling a prompt dose reconstruction during the treatment. The U-Net architecture and two variants based on the deep convolutional framelets framework have been used for noise and artifacts reduction in few-iterations reconstructed images, leading to promising results in terms of reconstruction accuracy and processing time.

Generative diffusion models have recently emerged as a powerful strategy to perform stochastic sampling in Bayesian inverse problems, delivering remarkably accurate solutions for a wide range of challenging applications. However, diffusion models often require a large number of neural function evaluations per sample in order to deliver accurate posterior samples. As a result, using diffusion models as stochastic samplers for Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian computation can be highly computationally expensive. This cost is especially high in large-scale inverse problems such as computational imaging, which rely on large neural networks that are expensive to evaluate. With Bayesian imaging problems in mind, this paper presents a Multilevel Monte Carlo strategy that significantly reduces the cost of Bayesian computation with diffusion models. This is achieved by exploiting cost-accuracy trade-offs inherent to diffusion models to carefully couple models of different levels of accuracy in a manner that significantly reduces the overall cost of the calculation, without reducing the final accuracy. The effectiveness of the proposed Multilevel Monte Carlo approach is demonstrated with three canonical computational imaging problems, where we observe a $4\times$-to-$8\times$ reduction in computational cost compared to conventional Monte Carlo averaging.

The gaming industry has experienced substantial growth, but cheating in online games poses a significant threat to the integrity of the gaming experience. Cheating, particularly in first-person shooter (FPS) games, can lead to substantial losses for the game industry. Existing anti-cheat solutions have limitations, such as client-side hardware constraints, security risks, server-side unreliable methods, and both-sides suffer from a lack of comprehensive real-world datasets. To address these limitations, the paper proposes HAWK, a server-side FPS anti-cheat framework for the popular game CS:GO. HAWK utilizes machine learning techniques to mimic human experts' identification process, leverages novel multi-view features, and it is equipped with a well-defined workflow. The authors evaluate HAWK with the first large and real-world datasets containing multiple cheat types and cheating sophistication, and it exhibits promising efficiency and acceptable overheads, shorter ban times compared to the in-use anti-cheat, a significant reduction in manual labor, and the ability to capture cheaters who evaded official inspections.

Manifold learning has been proven to be an effective method for capturing the implicitly intrinsic structure of non-Euclidean data, in which one of the primary challenges is how to maintain the distortion-free (isometry) of the data representations. Actually, there is still no manifold learning method that provides a theoretical guarantee of isometry. Inspired by Nash's isometric theorem, we introduce a new concept called isometric immersion learning based on Riemannian geometry principles. Following this concept, an unsupervised neural network-based model that simultaneously achieves metric and manifold learning is proposed by integrating Riemannian geometry priors. What's more, we theoretically derive and algorithmically implement a maximum likelihood estimation-based training method for the new model. In the simulation experiments, we compared the new model with the state-of-the-art baselines on various 3-D geometry datasets, demonstrating that the new model exhibited significantly superior performance in multiple evaluation metrics. Moreover, we applied the Riemannian metric learned from the new model to downstream prediction tasks in real-world scenarios, and the accuracy was improved by an average of 8.8%.

The price elasticity of demand can be estimated from observational data using instrumental variables (IV). However, naive IV estimators may be inconsistent in settings with autocorrelated time series. We argue that causal time graphs can simplify IV identification and help select consistent estimators. To do so, we propose to first model the equilibrium condition by an unobserved confounder, deriving a directed acyclic graph (DAG) while maintaining the assumption of a simultaneous determination of prices and quantities. We then exploit recent advances in graphical inference to derive valid IV estimators, including estimators that achieve consistency by simultaneously estimating nuisance effects. We further argue that observing significant differences between the estimates of presumably valid estimators can help to reject false model assumptions, thereby improving our understanding of underlying economic dynamics. We apply this approach to the German electricity market, estimating the price elasticity of demand on simulated and real-world data. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for structural autocorrelation in IV-based analysis.