Continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) can model data distributions with expressive infinite-length architectures. But this modeling involves computationally expensive process of solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE) during maximum likelihood training. Recently proposed flow matching (FM) framework allows to substantially simplify the training phase using a regression objective with the interpolated forward vector field. In this paper, we propose an interpolant-free dual flow matching (DFM) approach without explicit assumptions about the modeled vector field. DFM optimizes the forward and, additionally, a reverse vector field model using a novel objective that facilitates bijectivity of the forward and reverse transformations. Our experiments with the SMAP unsupervised anomaly detection show advantages of DFM when compared to the CNF trained with either maximum likelihood or FM objectives with the state-of-the-art performance metrics.

Downsampling or under-sampling is a technique that is utilized in the context of large and highly imbalanced classification models. We study optimal downsampling for imbalanced classification using generalized linear models (GLMs). We propose a pseudo maximum likelihood estimator and study its asymptotic normality in the context of increasingly imbalanced populations relative to an increasingly large sample size. We provide theoretical guarantees for the introduced estimator. Additionally, we compute the optimal downsampling rate using a criterion that balances statistical accuracy and computational efficiency. Our numerical experiments, conducted on both synthetic and empirical data, further validate our theoretical results, and demonstrate that the introduced estimator outperforms commonly available alternatives.

In recent years, unbiased Markov Chain Monte Carlo via couplings (UMCMC) has emerged as a promising framework to remove bias from MCMC estimates, thus potentially allowing for early stopping, simplifying the convergence diagnostic process and facilitating parallelization (Glynn and Rhee, 2014; Jacob et al., 2020). In UMCMC, coupled chains are run for a random number of iterations (at least up to coalescence) and their values are combined to produce unbiased estimates. A natural question that arises is whether this class of estimates incurs a greater computational cost than conventional MCMC based on simple ergodic averages and to quantify this potential difference. Framing the question differently, one may ask whether it is possible to devise UMCMC methods with computational cost matching top performing MCMCs, while enjoying the above mentioned benefits. On a different line of research, various works showed how carefully designed blocked Gibbs Samplers (BGSs), i.e. Gibbs sampling schemes that update entire blocks of coordinates jointly, can achieve state-of-the-art performances for sampling from the posterior distributions of various challenging high-dimensional Bayesian models, such as non-nested models with crossed dependencies (Papaspiliopoulos et al., 2019, 2023). In particular, BGSs achieve linear computational costs in the number of parameters and observations in asymptotic regimes where both diverge to infinity.

Recent advances in optical voltage sensors have brought us closer to a critical goal in cellular neuroscience: imaging the full spatiotemporal voltage on a dendritic tree. However, current sensors and imaging approaches still face significant limitations in SNR and sampling frequency; therefore statistical denoising and interpolation methods remain critical for understanding single-trial spatiotemporal dendritic voltage dynamics. Previous denoising approaches were either based on an inadequate linear voltage model or scaled poorly to large trees. Here we introduce a scalable fully Bayesian approach. We develop a generative nonlinear model that requires few parameters per compartment of the cell but is nonetheless flexible enough to sample realistic spatiotemporal data.

When maximum likelihood estimation is infeasible, one often turns to score matching, contrastive divergence, or minimum probability flow to obtain tractable parameter estimates. We provide a unifying perspective of these techniques as minimum Stein discrepancy estimators, and use this lens to design new diffusion kernel Stein discrepancy (DKSD) and diffusion score matching (DSM) estimators with complementary strengths. We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and robustness of DKSD and DSM estimators, then derive stochastic Riemannian gradient descent algorithms for their efficient optimisation. The main strength of our methodology is its flexibility, which allows us to design estimators with desirable properties for specific models at hand by carefully selecting a Stein discrepancy. We illustrate this advantage for several challenging problems for score matching, such as non-smooth, heavy-tailed or light-tailed densities.

We study the problem of fair binary classification using the notion of Equal Opportunity. It requires the true positive rate to distribute equally across the sensitive groups. Within this setting we show that the fair optimal classifier is obtained by recalibrating the Bayes classifier by a group-dependent threshold. We provide a constructive expression for the threshold. This result motivates us to devise a plug-in classification procedure based on both unlabeled and labeled datasets.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) aims to recover the reward function and the associated optimal policy that best fits observed sequences of states and actions implemented by an expert. Many algorithms for IRL have an inherent nested structure: the inner loop finds the optimal policy given parametrized rewards while the outer loop updates the estimates towards optimizing a measure of fit. For high dimensional environments such nested-loop structure entails a significant computational burden. To reduce the computational burden of a nested loop, novel methods such as SQIL \cite{reddy2019sqil} and IQ-Learn \cite{garg2021iq} emphasize policy estimation at the expense of reward estimation accuracy. However, without accurate estimated rewards, it is not possible to do counterfactual analysis such as predicting the optimal policy under different environment dynamics and/or learning new tasks.

Personalised federated learning (FL) aims at collaboratively learning a machine learning model tailored for each client. Albeit promising advances have been made in this direction, most of the existing approaches do not allow for uncertainty quantification which is crucial in many applications. In addition, personalisation in the cross-silo and cross-device setting still involves important issues, especially for new clients or those having a small number of observations. This paper aims at filling these gaps. To this end, we propose a novel methodology coined FedPop by recasting personalised FL into the population modeling paradigm where clients' models involve fixed common population parameters and random effects, aiming at explaining data heterogeneity.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has led many countries to impose unprecedented lockdown measures in order to slow down the outbreak. Questions on whether governments have acted promptly enough, and whether lockdown measures can be lifted soon have since been central in public discourse. Data-driven models that predict COVID-19 fatalities under different lockdown policy scenarios are essential for addressing these questions, and for informing governments on future policy directions. To this end, this paper develops a Bayesian model for predicting the effects of COVID-19 containment policies in a global context -- we treat each country as a distinct data point, and exploit variations of policies across countries to learn country-specific policy effects. Our model utilizes a two-layer Gaussian process (GP) prior -- the lower layer uses a compartmental SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) model as a prior mean function with "country-and-policy-specific" parameters that capture fatality curves under different "counterfactual" policies within each country, whereas the upper layer is shared across all countries, and learns lower-layer SEIR parameters as a function of country features and policy indicators.

A core problem in cognitive science and machine learning is to understand how humans derive semantic representations from perceptual objects, such as color from an apple, pleasantness from a musical chord, or seriousness from a face. Markov Chain Monte Carlo with People (MCMCP) is a prominent method for studying such representations, in which participants are presented with binary choice trials constructed such that the decisions follow a Markov Chain Monte Carlo acceptance rule. However, while MCMCP has strong asymptotic properties, its binary choice paradigm generates relatively little information per trial, and its local proposal function makes it slow to explore the parameter space and find the modes of the distribution. Here we therefore generalize MCMCP to a continuous-sampling paradigm, where in each iteration the participant uses a slider to continuously manipulate a single stimulus dimension to optimize a given criterion such as'pleasantness'. We formulate both methods from a utility-theory perspective, and show that the new method can be interpreted as'Gibbs Sampling with People' (GSP).