The proliferation of Machine Learning (ML) models and their open-source implementations has transformed Artificial Intelligence research and applications. Platforms like Hugging Face (HF) enable the development, sharing, and deployment of these models, fostering an evolving ecosystem. While previous studies have examined aspects of models hosted on platforms like HF, a comprehensive longitudinal study of how these models change remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by utilizing both repository mining and longitudinal analysis methods to examine over 200,000 commits and 1,200 releases from over 50,000 models on HF. We replicate and extend an ML change taxonomy for classifying commits and utilize Bayesian networks to uncover patterns in commit and release activities over time. Our findings indicate that commit activities align with established data science methodologies, such as CRISP-DM, emphasizing iterative refinement and continuous improvement. Additionally, release patterns tend to consolidate significant updates, particularly in documentation, distinguishing between granular changes and milestone-based releases. Furthermore, projects with higher popularity prioritize infrastructure enhancements early in their lifecycle, and those with intensive collaboration practices exhibit improved documentation standards. These and other insights enhance the understanding of model changes on community platforms and provide valuable guidance for best practices in model maintenance.

In this paper, we address the critical need for interpretable and uncertainty-aware machine learning models in the context of online learning for high-risk industries, particularly cyber-security. While deep learning and other complex models have demonstrated impressive predictive capabilities, their opacity and lack of uncertainty quantification present significant questions about their trustworthiness. We propose a novel pipeline for online supervised learning problems in cyber-security, that harnesses the inherent interpretability and uncertainty awareness of Additive Gaussian Processes (AGPs) models. Our approach aims to balance predictive performance with transparency while improving the scalability of AGPs, which represents their main drawback, potentially enabling security analysts to better validate threat detection, troubleshoot and reduce false positives, and generally make trustworthy, informed decisions. This work contributes to the growing field of interpretable AI by proposing a class of models that can be significantly beneficial for high-stake decision problems such as the ones typical of the cyber-security domain. The source code is available.

Several statistical models for regression of a function $F$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$ without the statistical and computational curse of dimensionality exist, for example by imposing and exploiting geometric assumptions on the distribution of the data (e.g. that its support is low-dimensional), or strong smoothness assumptions on $F$, or a special structure $F$. Among the latter, compositional models assume $F=f\circ g$ with $g$ mapping to $\mathbb{R}^r$ with $r\ll d$, have been studied, and include classical single- and multi-index models and recent works on neural networks. While the case where $g$ is linear is rather well-understood, much less is known when $g$ is nonlinear, and in particular for which $g$'s the curse of dimensionality in estimating $F$, or both $f$ and $g$, may be circumvented. In this paper, we consider a model $F(X):=f(\Pi_\gamma X) $ where $\Pi_\gamma:\mathbb{R}^d\to[0,\rm{len}_\gamma]$ is the closest-point projection onto the parameter of a regular curve $\gamma: [0,\rm{len}_\gamma]\to\mathbb{R}^d$ and $f:[0,\rm{len}_\gamma]\to\mathbb{R}^1$. The input data $X$ is not low-dimensional, far from $\gamma$, conditioned on $\Pi_\gamma(X)$ being well-defined. The distribution of the data, $\gamma$ and $f$ are unknown. This model is a natural nonlinear generalization of the single-index model, which corresponds to $\gamma$ being a line. We propose a nonparametric estimator, based on conditional regression, and show that under suitable assumptions, the strongest of which being that $f$ is coarsely monotone, it can achieve the $one$-$dimensional$ optimal min-max rate for non-parametric regression, up to the level of noise in the observations, and be constructed in time $\mathcal{O}(d^2n\log n)$. All the constants in the learning bounds, in the minimal number of samples required for our bounds to hold, and in the computational complexity are at most low-order polynomials in $d$.

This work addresses the fundamental linear inverse problem in compressive sensing (CS) by introducing a new type of regularizing generative prior. Our proposed method utilizes ideas from classical dictionary-based CS and, in particular, sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), to integrate a strong regularization towards sparse solutions. At the same time, by leveraging the notion of conditional Gaussianity, it also incorporates the adaptability from generative models to training data. However, unlike most state-of-the-art generative models, it is able to learn from a few compressed and noisy data samples and requires no optimization algorithm for solving the inverse problem. Additionally, similar to Dirichlet prior networks, our model parameterizes a conjugate prior enabling its application for uncertainty quantification. We support our approach theoretically through the concept of variational inference and validate it empirically using different types of compressible signals.

This paper presents a variant of the Multinomial mixture model tailored for the unsupervised classification of short text data. Traditionally, the Multinomial probability vector in this hierarchical model is assigned a Dirichlet prior distribution. Here, however, we explore an alternative prior--the Beta-Liouville distribution--which offers a more flexible correlation structure than the Dirichlet. We examine the theoretical properties of the Beta-Liouville distribution, focusing on its conjugacy with the Multinomial likelihood. This property enables the derivation of update equations for a CAVI (Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference) variational algorithm, facilitating the approximate posterior estimation of model parameters. Additionally, we propose a stochastic variant of the CAVI algorithm that enhances scalability. The paper concludes with data examples that demonstrate effective strategies for setting the Beta-Liouville hyperparameters.

Ensuring fairness has emerged as one of the primary concerns in AI and its related algorithms. Over time, the field of machine learning fairness has evolved to address these issues. This paper provides an extensive overview of this field and introduces two formal frameworks to tackle open questions in machine learning fairness. In one framework, operator-valued optimisation and min-max objectives are employed to address unfairness in time-series problems. This approach showcases state-of-the-art performance on the notorious COMPAS benchmark dataset, demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world scenarios. In the second framework, the challenge of lacking sensitive attributes, such as gender and race, in commonly used datasets is addressed. This issue is particularly pressing because existing algorithms in this field predominantly rely on the availability or estimations of such attributes to assess and mitigate unfairness. Here, a framework for a group-blind bias-repair is introduced, aiming to mitigate bias without relying on sensitive attributes. The efficacy of this approach is showcased through analyses conducted on the Adult Census Income dataset. Additionally, detailed algorithmic analyses for both frameworks are provided, accompanied by convergence guarantees, ensuring the robustness and reliability of the proposed methodologies.

Differential equations offer a foundational yet powerful framework for modeling interactions within complex dynamic systems and are widely applied across numerous scientific fields. One common challenge in this area is estimating the unknown parameters of these dynamic relationships. However, traditional numerical optimization methods rely on the selection of initial parameter values, making them prone to local optima. Meanwhile, deep learning and Bayesian methods require training models on specific differential equations, resulting in poor versatility. This paper reformulates the parameter estimation problem of differential equations as an optimization problem by introducing the concept of particles from the particle swarm optimization algorithm. Building on reinforcement learning-based particle swarm optimization (RLLPSO), this paper proposes a novel method, DERLPSO, for estimating unknown parameters of differential equations. We compared its performance on three typical ordinary differential equations with the state-of-the-art methods, including the RLLPSO algorithm, traditional numerical methods, deep learning approaches, and Bayesian methods. The experimental results demonstrate that our DERLPSO consistently outperforms other methods in terms of performance, achieving an average Mean Square Error of 1.13e-05, which reduces the error by approximately 4 orders of magnitude compared to other methods. Apart from ordinary differential equations, our DERLPSO also show great promise for estimating unknown parameters of partial differential equations. The DERLPSO method proposed in this paper has high accuracy, is independent of initial parameter values, and possesses strong versatility and stability. This work provides new insights into unknown parameter estimation for differential equations.

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret exactly. We systematically compare aleatoric uncertainty measured by two UQ techniques, Deep Ensembles (DE) and Deep Evidential Regression (DER). Our method focuses on both zero-dimensional (0D) and two-dimensional (2D) data, to explore how the UQ methods function for different data dimensionalities. We investigate uncertainty injected on the input and output variables and include a method to propagate uncertainty in the case of input uncertainty so that we can compare the predicted aleatoric uncertainty to the known values. We experiment with three levels of noise. The aleatoric uncertainty predicted across all models and experiments scales with the injected noise level. However, the predicted uncertainty is miscalibrated to $\rm{std}(\sigma_{\rm al})$ with the true uncertainty for half of the DE experiments and almost all of the DER experiments. The predicted uncertainty is the least accurate for both UQ methods for the 2D input uncertainty experiment and the high-noise level. While these results do not apply to more complex data, they highlight that further research on post-facto calibration for these methods would be beneficial, particularly for high-noise and high-dimensional settings.

Interpretable Machine Learning faces a recurring challenge of explaining the predictions made by opaque classifiers such as ensemble models, kernel methods, or neural networks in terms that are understandable to humans. When the model is viewed as a black box, the objective is to identify a small set of features that jointly determine the black box response with minimal error. However, finding such model-agnostic explanations is computationally demanding, as the problem is intractable even for binary classifiers. In this paper, the task is framed as a Constraint Optimization Problem, where the constraint solver seeks an explanation of minimum error and bounded size for an input data instance and a set of samples generated by the black box. From a theoretical perspective, this constraint programming approach offers PAC-style guarantees for the output explanation. We evaluate the approach empirically on various datasets and show that it statistically outperforms the state-of-the-art heuristic Anchors method.

This paper presents a novel feature selection method leveraging the Wasserstein distance to improve feature selection in machine learning. Unlike traditional methods based on correlation or Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, our approach uses the Wasserstein distance to assess feature similarity, inherently capturing class relationships and making it robust to noisy labels. We introduce a Markov blanket-based feature selection algorithm and demonstrate its effectiveness. Our analysis shows that the Wasserstein distance-based feature selection method effectively reduces the impact of noisy labels without relying on specific noise models. We provide a lower bound on its effectiveness, which remains meaningful even in the presence of noise. Experimental results across multiple datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms traditional methods, particularly in noisy settings.