We investigate the parameter recovery of Markov-switching ordinary differential processes from discrete observations, where the differential equations are nonlinear additive models. This framework has been widely applied in biological systems, control systems, and other domains; however, limited research has been conducted on reconstructing the generating processes from observations. In contrast, many physical systems, such as human brains, cannot be directly experimented upon and rely on observations to infer the underlying systems. To address this gap, this manuscript presents a comprehensive study of the model, encompassing algorithm design, optimization guarantees, and quantification of statistical errors. Specifically, we develop a two-stage algorithm that first recovers the continuous sample path from discrete samples and then estimates the parameters of the processes. We provide novel theoretical insights into the statistical error and linear convergence guarantee when the processes are $\beta$-mixing. Our analysis is based on the truncation of the latent posterior processes and demonstrates that the truncated processes approximate the true processes under mixing conditions. We apply this model to investigate the differences in resting-state brain networks between the ADHD group and normal controls, revealing differences in the transition rate matrices of the two groups.

Globally, chronic liver disease continues to be a major health concern that requires precise predictive models for prompt detection and treatment. Using the Indian Liver Patient Dataset (ILPD) from the University of California at Irvine's UCI Machine Learning Repository, a number of machine learning algorithms are investigated in this study. The main focus of our research is this dataset, which includes the medical records of 583 patients, 416 of whom have been diagnosed with liver disease and 167 of whom have not. There are several aspects to this work, including feature extraction and dimensionality reduction methods like Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Factor Analysis (FA), t-distributed Stochastic Neighbour Embedding (t-SNE), and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP). The purpose of the study is to investigate how well these approaches work for converting high-dimensional datasets and improving prediction accuracy. To assess the prediction ability of the improved models, a number of classification methods were used, such as Multi-layer Perceptron, Random Forest, K-nearest neighbours, and Logistic Regression. Remarkably, the improved models performed admirably, with Random Forest having the highest accuracy of 98.31\% in 10-fold cross-validation and 95.79\% in train-test split evaluation. Findings offer important new perspectives on the choice and use of customized feature extraction and dimensionality reduction methods, which improve predictive models for patients with chronic liver disease.

The field of Machine Learning has changed significantly since the 1970s. However, its most basic principle, Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM), remains unchanged. We propose Functional Risk Minimization~(FRM), a general framework where losses compare functions rather than outputs. This results in better performance in supervised, unsupervised, and RL experiments. In the FRM paradigm, for each data point $(x_i,y_i)$ there is function $f_{\theta_i}$ that fits it: $y_i = f_{\theta_i}(x_i)$. This allows FRM to subsume ERM for many common loss functions and to capture more realistic noise processes. We also show that FRM provides an avenue towards understanding generalization in the modern over-parameterized regime, as its objective can be framed as finding the simplest model that fits the training data.

Deep learning has proven to be a suitable alternative to least-squares (LSQ) fitting for parameter estimation in various quantitative MRI (QMRI) models. However, current deep learning implementations are not robust to changes in MR acquisition protocols. In practice, QMRI acquisition protocols differ substantially between different studies and clinical settings. The lack of generalizability and adoptability of current deep learning approaches for QMRI parameter estimation impedes the implementation of these algorithms in clinical trials and clinical practice. Neural Controlled Differential Equations (NCDEs) allow for the sampling of incomplete and irregularly sampled data with variable length, making them ideal for use in QMRI parameter estimation. In this study, we show that NCDEs can function as a generic tool for the accurate prediction of QMRI parameters, regardless of QMRI sequence length, configuration of independent variables and QMRI forward model (variable flip angle T1-mapping, intravoxel incoherent motion MRI, dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI). NCDEs achieved lower mean squared error than LSQ fitting in low-SNR simulations and in vivo in challenging anatomical regions like the abdomen and leg, but this improvement was no longer evident at high SNR. NCDEs reduce estimation error interquartile range without increasing bias, particularly under conditions of high uncertainty. These findings suggest that NCDEs offer a robust approach for reliable QMRI parameter estimation, especially in scenarios with high uncertainty or low image quality. We believe that with NCDEs, we have solved one of the main challenges for using deep learning for QMRI parameter estimation in a broader clinical and research setting.

Contaminant observations and outliers often cause problems when estimating the parameters of cognitive models, which are statistical models representing cognitive processes. In this study, we test and improve the robustness of parameter estimation using amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) with neural networks. To this end, we conduct systematic analyses on a toy example and analyze both synthetic and real data using a popular cognitive model, the Drift Diffusion Models (DDM). First, we study the sensitivity of ABI to contaminants with tools from robust statistics: the empirical influence function and the breakdown point. Next, we propose a data augmentation or noise injection approach that incorporates a contamination distribution into the data-generating process during training. We examine several candidate distributions and evaluate their performance and cost in terms of accuracy and efficiency loss relative to a standard estimator. Introducing contaminants from a Cauchy distribution during training considerably increases the robustness of the neural density estimator as measured by bounded influence functions and a much higher breakdown point. Overall, the proposed method is straightforward and practical to implement and has a broad applicability in fields where outlier detection or removal is challenging.

As electronic systems become increasingly complex and prevalent in modern vehicles, securing onboard networks is crucial, particularly as many of these systems are safety-critical. Researchers have demonstrated that modern vehicles are susceptible to various types of attacks, enabling attackers to gain control and compromise safety-critical electronic systems. Consequently, several Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) have been proposed in the literature to detect such cyber-attacks on vehicles. This paper introduces a novel generative classifier-based Intrusion Detection System (IDS) designed for anomaly detection in automotive networks, specifically focusing on the Controller Area Network (CAN). Leveraging variational Bayes, our proposed IDS utilizes a deep latent variable model to construct a causal graph for conditional probabilities. An auto-encoder architecture is utilized to build the classifier to estimate conditional probabilities, which contribute to the final prediction probabilities through Bayesian inference. Comparative evaluations against state-of-the-art IDSs on a public Car-hacking dataset highlight our proposed classifier's superior performance in improving detection accuracy and F1-score. The proposed IDS demonstrates its efficacy by outperforming existing models with limited training data, providing enhanced security assurance for automotive systems.

The assumption of independence between observations (units) in a dataset is prevalent across various methodologies for learning causal graphical models. However, this assumption often finds itself in conflict with real-world data, posing challenges to accurate structure learning. We propose a decorrelation-based approach for causal graph learning on dependent binary data, where the local conditional distribution is defined by a latent utility model with dependent errors across units. We develop a pairwise maximum likelihood method to estimate the covariance matrix for the dependence among the units. Then, leveraging the estimated covariance matrix, we develop an EM-like iterative algorithm to generate and decorrelate samples of the latent utility variables, which serve as decorrelated data. Any standard causal discovery method can be applied on the decorrelated data to learn the underlying causal graph. We demonstrate that the proposed decorrelation approach significantly improves the accuracy in causal graph learning, through numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

In many domains of empirical sciences, discovering the causal structure within variables remains an indispensable task. Recently, to tackle with unoriented edges or latent assumptions violation suffered by conventional methods, researchers formulated a reinforcement learning (RL) procedure for causal discovery, and equipped REINFORCE algorithm to search for the best-rewarded directed acyclic graph. The two keys to the overall performance of the procedure are the robustness of RL methods and the efficient encoding of variables. However, on the one hand, REINFORCE is prone to local convergence and unstable performance during training. Neither trust region policy optimization, being computationally-expensive, nor proximal policy optimization (PPO), suffering from aggregate constraint deviation, is decent alternative for combinatory optimization problems with considerable individual subactions. We propose a trust region-navigated clipping policy optimization method for causal discovery that guarantees both better search efficiency and steadiness in policy optimization, in comparison with REINFORCE, PPO and our prioritized sampling-guided REINFORCE implementation. On the other hand, to boost the efficient encoding of variables, we propose a refined graph attention encoder called SDGAT that can grasp more feature information without priori neighbourhood information. With these improvements, the proposed method outperforms former RL method in both synthetic and benchmark datasets in terms of output results and optimization robustness.

This work focuses on the mixed membership models for multivariate categorical data widely used for analyzing survey responses and population genetics data. These grade of membership (GoM) models offer rich modeling power but present significant estimation challenges for high-dimensional polytomous data. Popular existing approaches, such as Bayesian MCMC inference, are not scalable and lack theoretical guarantees in high-dimensional settings. To address this, we first observe that data from this model can be reformulated as a three-way (quasi-)tensor, with many subjects responding to many items with varying numbers of categories. We introduce a novel and simple approach that flattens the three-way quasi-tensor into a "fat" matrix, and then perform a singular value decomposition of it to estimate parameters by exploiting the singular subspace geometry. Our fast spectral method can accommodate a broad range of data distributions with arbitrarily locally dependent noise, which we formalize as the generalized-GoM models. We establish finite-sample entrywise error bounds for the generalized-GoM model parameters. This is supported by a new sharp two-to-infinity singular subspace perturbation theory for locally dependent and flexibly distributed noise, a contribution of independent interest. Simulations and applications to data in political surveys, population genetics, and single-cell sequencing demonstrate our method's superior performance.

Strong artificial intelligence (AI) is envisioned to possess general cognitive abilities and scientific creativity comparable to human intelligence, encompassing both knowledge acquisition and problem-solving. While remarkable progress has been made in weak AI, the realization of strong AI remains a topic of intense debate and critical examination. In this paper, we explore pivotal innovations in the history of astronomy and physics, focusing on the discovery of Neptune and the concept of scientific revolutions as perceived by philosophers of science. Building on these insights, we introduce a simple theoretical and statistical framework of weak beliefs, termed the Transformational Belief (TB) framework, designed as a foundation for modeling scientific creativity. Through selected illustrative examples in statistical science, we demonstrate the TB framework's potential as a promising foundation for understanding, analyzing, and even fostering creativity -- paving the way toward the development of strong AI. We conclude with reflections on future research directions and potential advancements.